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2013 Paris – Nice 3rd March to 10th of March 2.WT1 – Live on Channel Eurosport

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When do you know cycling season has kicked into gear when the words Paris Nice come off the lips. The race to the sun sees riders cross france from its capital down to the southern getaway city of its rich and famous. Usually this will have a time trial or two and one testing climb.

Houilles – Houilles 2.9 km  (TT)
Saint-Germain-en-Laye – Nemours 195 km
Vimory – Cérilly 200.5 km
Châtel-Guyon – Brioude 170.5 km
Brioude – Saint-Vallier 199.5 km
Châteauneuf-du-Pape – La Montagne de Lure 176 km
Manosque – Nice 220 km
Nice – Col d’Èze 9.6 km (MTT)

This year we have a very short prologue and a very testing last day time trial up the Col D’eze, the stage with key moutain finish is up La Montagne  de Lure, with about 900 metres of climbing on the final climb to 1,600m.  The final climbing tt is an average climb of about 5%. So the race will be made up of a prolgue, 4 flat stages, 1 medium stage, 1 hard stage, and the moutain time trial.

Last years winner Bradley Wiggins wont defend. Tony Martin  managed to win this in 2011 despite not being the best climber. France has not had a winner of this race in along time going back to the 80s and has just 3 podiums since 1999. Bar 2008 when Rebellin won the winner has always been a very solid time trialist that’s key but also must hang in on the big mountain day and limit any losses. The final tt was riden last year with Westra running Wiggins very close.

Tejay Van Garderen (4.5) Came out of his masters shadow in last years tour, and the steady moutain finish may prove suiting his style, one of best time trialists around too but how will he fare in an uphill one as he did not look totally at home last year in it. Tejay has yet to take out a stage race and a huge factor has been not putting away winning positions. He was a 5th here last year after coming a very poor 14th on the mountain time trial setting him back. Tejay has shown again how he keeps his shape all year round and was 2nd in argentina his only racing this year.

Gesink (5.5) Winner in California in May last year his form can come and go as can his time trial skills. He also comes in off a full off season after last years leg break affected his season build up. And he took longer to find his shape as a result.  But in 2011 he came out in tip top shape winning Oman and coming 2nd in tirreno. His best season was 2010,  and he was 5th In Tirreno that year. Its interesting that he now switches to Paris Nice. Hes had solid start season including a 4th in Murcia

Westra (6.5) Pushed Wiggins very close last year just losing out in the end after going down 6sec in the final uphill time trial. Lost by 8 sec but was over minute clear of Valverde in 3rd. Was 3rd in Algarve unable to match tony martin but having solid enough time trial. Last year he didnt even finish Algarve so thats no issue coming into Paris nice this time round. He can let himself down sometimes but theirs no doubting his ability.

Porte (13) Won in Portugal last year before support Wiggins here last year but failed to defend his title as sky did not turn up, so not sure he is in the same shape this time round. 28th on the Moutain tt he struggled at the end of Paris nice coming in well down. Unable to assert in Oman I am not sure he is now with a much stronger field.

Quintana (15) A very good climber as with all columbians and also accomplished in uphill time trials in the past.  This time last year Quintana was ridding to a win in Murcia including taking the mountain stage, the terrain should suit and he has a strong team in support and the wildcard of rui costa to play also. Quintana had some strong results in 2012 so building on it in 2013 would be good.

Talansky (15) The Garmin man came to our attention last year as a strong rider who pushed wiggins in Romandie last season. Talansky has not had much racing in lead up to this showing up for just 4 days racing, 11th in a time trial with Roche ahead of him. He was 8th fresh into Algarve last season but he may find it too much on a much testing climbing stage.

Peraud (21) A 3rd last year but a gear behind Wiggins and Westra on the final time trial and mistakes on other stages stopped him having a good overall finish. Peraud after a mixed 2012 were he focused somewhat on mountain biking has started 2012 well.  with a 2nd overall in the tour of med,  and managed a stage win, potential to get in the mix this year if avoiding been dropped before the final key stages.

Rui Costa (26) Has a good time trial, but the mountain top finish will test his legs, last year winning Suisse, he needed every bit of help from Valverde to hang on and this might just sap him to breaking point. Has the option of Quintana in support, will likely lose out on the big mountain day if pace is high but may hold his own in the final time trial. 5th in Algarve showing decent shape but still a bit to over turn Westra.

Menchov (34) Just ahead of Rui Costa in Portugal coming in 4th, rare early season form from a mostly out of form Menchov over past seasons. 2012 was one of his weakest season so already 2013 is looking stronger.  he was twice 2nd in Murcia this time of year in 2011 and 2010 and he won that in 2009. It would be no shock if he could make himself felt here.

De Gendt (81) Known for his good attack that nearly broke up last years giro and ended up giving him a podium spot. Has shown time and time again of being good against the clock. Westra will be the teams main option, but De Gendt won a stage here and with a focus on the tour it woudl be no harm to show something here. But he was only 29th overall despite that and he can have a bad day.

Other notables is Spilak (51) who was strong here last year,  he came in 4th and looked decent and again is the teams focus here.  Hes kicked off well in 2013,  4th in Ruta del sol, Navarro leads cofidis so should be watched,  and chavanel has done well before in this type of racing.

Westra’s strong time trialling can pay off

Outright:

.3pts Westra 11/2 ladbrokes

.25pts QUintana 14/1 skybet, paddypower

.2pt Menchov 33/1 various

.1pt Spilak 50/1 betvictor

.1pt Peraud 20/1 betvictor

 

Highlighted Matchbets:

Roche has started 2013 well

7pts Westra to beat Porte 17/20 bet365, ladbrokes

Westra is a strong choice in betting he ran this very close last season just being kept off by Wiggins its very hard for Porte to go and match him if Westra shows up in his best.

6pts Menchov to beat Kloden 8/11 ladbrokes

Menchov is good in march, Kloden has not being a climber for a long time and his overall riding has declined as well.

8pts Roche to beat Taaramae 4/6 betvictor

Roche leads his saxo team and has been in decent shape showing improved time trial skills since moving. Taaramae has been quoted as saying hes not right and will not lead the team.

 

Other Matchbets:

2pts Spilak to beat De Clercq 3/5 Sportingbet

2.5pts Peraud to beat Porte 6/5 sportingbet

1pt Roche to beat P.Velits 3/4 sportingbet

1pt Gesink to beat Van Garderen  9/10 sportingbet

2pts Jeannesson to beat Nieve 3/4 bet365

2pts Rui Costa to beat Fugslang 7/10 bet365

2pts Peraud to beat Talansky 6/5 bet365

3pts De Gendt to beat Voeckler 4/6 ladbrokes

3pts Westra to beat Talansky 3/4 betvictor

1pt Chavanel to beat Vocekler 20/21 betvictor

1pt Jeannesson to beat Coppel 20/21 betvictor

3pts QUintana to beat Navarro 1.73 pinnacle

2pts Menchov to beat Coppel 1.97 pinnacle

1pt Roche to beat Tschoop 1.78 pinnacle

1pt Ullissi to beat Lofvkist 2.49 pinnacle

2pts Izagirrre to beat Hivert 1.98 pinnacle

 

 

 

 

 

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

9 Comments

  1. Prologue:

    Looks like a sprinters prologue as it will have some sharpe bends that involve powering out of the saddle to get speed up again. Overall contenders can really get a good footing by nearing best times, losses greater than 20seconds would be a concern for someones chances.

    http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2013/0/CARTE.jpg

    Matthews (15) is mentioned by a few as a possible for this. Last year thomas won a longer version of this prologue, but he was in track shape at the time. Nizzollo , Cavendish and Matthews were notable sprinters doing well but with this been shorter again more sprinters will come into play.

    2 years ago was seen as more relevant to this year, with Castroveigo taking it from phinney with Howard in 3rd. Being honest this type of stage is a bit of luck as riders will often win by seconds, often gained by a slight change in conditions or how well one bend is taken.

    Stage Winner: (just a half pt investment overall)
    .15pt Howard 8/1 various
    .1pt Renshaw 18/1 sportingbet
    .1pt Grivko 22/1 william hill
    .15pt Matthews 14/1 sportingbet

    Head to Head:

    4pt Renshaw to beat Bonnen 17/20 sportingbet
    5pts Grivko to beat G.Larsson 8/11 hills (1.75pinnacle)
    6pts L.Howard to beat Westra 8/11 ladbrokes

    other:

    1pt Westra to beat Chavanel 6/5 hills (2.22pinnacle)
    1pt Gerrans to beat Gilbert 5/4 HILLS
    2pts Spilak to beat Velits 13/20 bet365
    2pts Clement to beat Bookwalter 4/5 hills (8/11 paddys)
    1pt Renshaw to beat Hutarovich 17/20 betvictor
    1pt Renshaw to beat Gilbert 11/10 paddys
    2.5pts Bouhanni to beat Kristoff 4/5 betvictor
    3pts Peraud to beat Kloden 17/20 bet365
    1pt Gallopin to beat Veelers 11/10 paddys
    2pts l.howard to beat matthews 17/20 ladbrokes
    2pts Menchov to beat Kloden evens betvic
    3pt Howard to beat Chavanel 17/20 sportingbet
    1pt Gilbert to beat Van Garderen 33/20 sportingbet
    3pt Matthews to bet Clement 17/20 sportingbet

  2. Stage 1:

    A flat finish should see the sprinters have their day. http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2013/100/PROFIL.png

    Its pan flat so should see big group come in, 4kms out should see the trains power on and their is no major bends to note as well.

    The wind could have played its parts but looks like it wont be strong enough to cause too much trouble.

    Stage:
    .1pt Renshaw 20/1 paddys
    .2pts Viviani 11/1 bet365

    2pts Viviani to beat Hutarovich 3/4 bet365 (1.8 pinnacle)

    4pts Roas Gil to beat Haussler 17/20 bet365
    Rojas has a strong overall head to head racing Haussler, his start to 2013 has been stronger so far and hes on track to improve on a quiet enough 2012. these both raced last years race and Rojas beat him early on and only lost to him on two stages.

    1pt Renshaw to beat Bouhanni 13/10 bet365 (2.43 pinnacle)
    1pt Bozic to beat Boonen 11/10 bet365 (2.15 pinnacle)
    1pt gallopin to beat Egoitz Garcia 11/10 bet365 (2.14pinnacle)

    2ptsSoupe to beat Veelers 17/20 bet365 (1.95 pinnacle)
    2pts L.Howard to beat Haussler 4/6 paddys
    2pts Viviani to beat Kristoff 8/11 ladbrokes
    1pt Renshaw to beat Kristoff evens ladbrokes
    2pts ROjas to beat Bonnen evens sportingbet

    1pt Kittel not to win 1.75 pinnacle

  3. Stage 2:

    Today saw some splits which were mostly good to us in roches battles, bad news with rui costa now out after a crash. Move onto stage 2 and this finish is uphill

    http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2013/200/PROFILKMS.jpg

    3% looks like the ramp for the run in so some of the sprinters may not like this. Some are saying over 4% for final 400 metres the key part. Their could be a shower or two so the softies may not be brave enough.

    .4pt Bouhanni win stage 11/4 various

    9pts Bouhanni to beat Kittel 5/6 padys (got 11/10 before move) 17/20 ladbrokes
    7pts Bozic to beat Debbusscehere 4/5 paddys
    4pts Gallopin to beat Bruschel 9/10 sprointgbet

    1pt L.Howard to beat Renshaw 5/4 paddys
    2pts L.Howard to beat vivani 11/10 sportingbet
    3pts Rojas gIL to beat Haussler 17/20 bet365 11/10 paddys
    2pts Renshaw to beat Pettachi 6/4 bet365
    3pts Matthews to beat DUmoulin 11/10 bet365
    3pts Simon to beat Wegmann 1.84 pinnacle

    6pts Kittel not win stage 1.15

  4. Bouhanni crashed badly and was seriously injured wish him all best and thats the luck of the game as finish suited him.

    Stage 3:
    .1pt Gallopin 12/1 paddypower

    1pt Menchov to beat Nieve 6/5 bet365 (2.32 p)
    1pt Bozic to beat Rojas evens bet365 (2.13 P)
    2pts Bozic to beat feillu 3/5 sportingbet

    4pts Haussler to beat R.Feillu 17/20 bet365
    Haussler provided stage 1 he could do it feillu migh not get to finish on stage like this

    1pt rojas to beat feillu 4/6 ladbrokes
    2pts gallopin to beat soupe 3/4 bet365
    2pts gallopin to beat breschel 4/6 sportingbet
    3pts Hivert to beat Breschel 17/20 bet365. hills
    1pt S.Chavanel to beat Gilbert 1/2 bet365 (1.56p)
    1pt Keldermann to beat Lovkvist 17/20 bet365 (1.88)
    1pt Westra to beat Fugslang 9/10 bet365 (2.01 pinnn)
    1pt Westra to beat Gesink 10/11 ladbrokes
    1.5pts Roche to beat Velits 3/4 bet365
    1pt Ulissi to beat Kloden 9/10 bet365 (2.01 pi

  5. Stage 4:

    This stage looks very exciting its up and down a bit for day before a long decent which leads into two short climbs but they should have enough to take it out of the legs for those just hanging on.

    http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2013/400/PROFIL.png

    Matchbets:

    4pts Roche to beat P.Velits 5/6 paddys (3/4 bet365

    1.5pts Menchov to beat Nieve 3/4 bet365 (1.82 pinnacle)
    1pt Gasparratto to beat Hivert 3.64 pinnacle
    1pt Porte to beat T.Van GArderen evens bet365, hills (2.11pinnacle)
    1pt Quintana to beat Kislerovski evens, bet365, hills, (2.2pinnacle)
    1pt Jeannesson to beat Ullissi 13/10 bet365 (2.31 pinnacle)
    1pt Westra to beat talansky 5/4 hills (2.29 pinnacle)
    1pt NAvarro to beat Peruad 11/10 bet365
    3pts SOupe to beat DUmoulin 8/11 paddys
    1pt S.Chavanel to beat Gilbert 4/7 paddys
    1pt Quintana to beat Peruad 19/20 sportingbet
    3pts D>Garica to beat Spilak 3/4 sportingbet

  6. Stage 5:
    A 176km stage with a good climb for the finish going up to 1,600m should make for much entertainment. the last 4kms before the last km are a good gradient to break it up. It should be grouped till the base of the climb
    http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2013/500/PROFILKMS.jpg

    .25pts Westra 16/1 ladbrokes to win stage
    .2pts Navarro 18/1 sporting bet to win stage
    .15pt Scarponi 10/1 paddys

    Matchbets:
    1pt QUintana to beat Gesink 1.78 pinnacle
    2pt D.Navarro to beat Kiserlovski 9/20 bet365 (1.495 pinnacle)
    2pt Roche to beat P.Velit 1/2 bet365, hills, 3/5 sportingbet (1.705 p)
    2[t Jeanneson to beat de clercq 13/10 bet365
    1pt jeanneson to beat lovkvist 17/20 sportingbet
    1pt Ulissi to beat kiserlovski 19/20 sportingbet

    2pt westra to beat chavanel 7/20 bet365, 4/11 hills (1.395 p)
    5pts westra to beat kiserlovski 4/6 ladbrokes
    Liking westra here, kiser cant live with a guy who won a mtf in this race last year and is looking very sharpe.
    4pts westra to beat porte 11/10 sportingbet

    2pt alansky to beat van gaderen evens hills (2.14P)
    3pts Monfort to beat menchov 9/10 bet365
    1pt Coppel to beat Nieve 7/5 bet365
    1pt Losada to beat Lovkvist 8/5 hills (2.8p)
    2[t Peraud to beat Kloden, evens hills , 2.11 p
    2pt Scarponi to beat Porte 13/20 bet365 (1.69 p
    2pts M.Bouet to beat Taaramae 7/5 bet365

  7. Stage 6:

    1pt Westra to beat talansky 7/5 bet365, hiils (2.49)
    1pt D.Navarro to beat Losda 7/5 bet365, hills. (2.59P)
    1pt .Roche to beat p.velits 13/10 bet365 (2.35p)
    1pt grivko to beat chavanel 8/5 bet365, hills (2.85p)
    1pt porte to beat ulissi 7/5 bet365
    1pt menchov to beat scarponi 8/5 bet365
    2pts gallopin to beat florencio 3/4 bet365
    1pt Peruad to beat Van Garderen 8/5 bet365, 7/4 hills (2.91p)
    1.5pt Spilak to beat Kloden 7/5 bet365*
    1pt Gasparatto to beat hivert 8/5 bet365, 7/4 hills, (3.02p)
    1pt de gendt to beat voeckler 7/5 bet365

    1.5ptsD.Navarro Garcia to beat Kiserlovski 19/20 sportingbet
    1pt Pauriol to beat Voceckler 6/5 sportingbet
    1.5ptGallopin to beat gilbert 3/5 sportingbet
    2pt J.rojas to beat Haussler 3/4 sporitngbet

  8. Stage 7:

    Well its the final time trial on the final day and its uphill test of 9.6km to the beautiful top looking over the city of Nice, riders will have a hard week but reward of a beloved Paris Nice win is just around the corner.

    .2pt Porte to win stage 5/2 ladbrokes

    2pts Porte to beat Westra 11/10 ladbrokes
    2pt Peruad to beat talansky 2/1 ladbrokes
    2pts Chavanel to beat Spilak 13/10 bet365 (2.35 pinnacle)
    2pt QUintana to beat scarponi 2/5 bet365 (1.44pinnacle)
    1pt lopez to beat losada 17/20 bet365 (2.17 pinnacle)
    2pts Jeannesson to beat Roche 7/10 bet365
    1pt Jeannesson to beat coppel 11/10 ladbrokes
    2pts LOfkvist to beat gallopin 7/10 bet365
    2pts hivert to beat de clerecq 6/5 sportingbet
    2pts J.Voigt to beat bookwalter 3/5 sportingbet

  9. Betvictor have prices up now, paddypower could do well to follow others pricing rather than price none up at all:

    2pts Navarro to beat Losada 3/4 betvictor
    1pt Ulissi to beat Izigairre 4/5 betvictor
    3pts Spilak to beat roche 17/20 betvictor

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