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Argento Chase Trends – Saturday 25th January 2014

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2.25 Cheltenham – Argento Chase Trends 2014

The Argento Chase which is registered under the name of the Cotswold Chase was first run back in 1988 and has been run every year since with the exception of 1992 and 1996, physician it has been run at Cheltenham every year apart from 2006 when it was run at Wincanton.

I shall look at the trends of previous winners to see if one runner stands out with the best chance of winning the race.

Horse Age

Age Runners Wins Win % Profit/Loss Places Place %
6yo 3 1 33% -£1.09 1 33%
7yo 9 2 22% £1.75 5 56%
8yo 26 3 12% -£12.92 7 27%
9yo 31 4 13% £0.90 10 32%
10yo 20 4 20% £22.00 7 35%
11yo 14 3 21% £12.58 6 43%
12yo+ 9 0 0% -£9.00 1 11%

The first factor we can look at is who certain ages have fared in the past and looking at the results there is not really a major one which stands out, 12yo+ are the obvious negatives with their record of 0-9 and only one previous placing but the eldest runner in the race on Saturday is an 11yo so that is not relevant. The two which stand out are 10yo and 11yo who between then have a record of 7-34 (21%) and show an LSP of +£34.58.

Positives: Restless Harry & Pigeon Island
Negatives: None

Market Position

Pos In Market Runners Wins Win % Profit/Loss Places Place %
1 20 3 15% -£13.44 11 55%
2 14 4 29% £1.66 7 50%
3 20 3 15% -£1.00 5 25%
4 17 2 12% -£3.50 5 29%
5 13 4 31% £41.50 4 31%
6+ 28 1 4% -£11.00 5 18%

Market position is usually an area I like to look at to rule out a few runners, looking at this race the negatives would go to anything 6th place in the market or worse because the numbers are 1-28 (-11.00) and those going off in the first five in the market are 16-84 (+25.22).

Positives: Rocky Creek, Houblon Des Obeaux, Harry Topper, Champion Court & The Giant Bolster.
Negatives: Restless Harry & Pigeon Harry.

Days Since Last Run

Days Since Run Runners Wins Win % Profit/Loss Places Place %
1-25 days 15 1 7% -£9.50 3 20%
26-30 days 18 2 11% -£2.25 6 33%
31-45 days 43 9 21% £30.83 18 42%
46-60 days 12 1 8% -£5.50 1 8%
61-75 days 7 0 0% -£7.00 1 14%
76-90 days 3 1 33% -£1.09 2 67%
91+ days 9 2 22% £12.33 5 56%

The number of days a runner has been off the track can sometimes be a very good indicator and one which I always like to look in to. You can see from above that those returning having run between 31-45 days have produced nine of the winners for a LSP of +30.83 and from the 43 runners, 42% of those have gone on to place in the race. On the negative side, those returning quickly (within 25 days) are just 1-15.

Positives: Houblon Des Obeaux
Negatives: Champion Court, The Giant Bolster, Restless Harry & Pigeon Island.

Career Strike Rate

Career Strike Rate Runners Wins Win % Profit/Loss Places Place %
1st Best 20 2 10% -£16.69 7 35%
2nd Best 18 7 39% £25.58 10 56%
3rd Best 15 1 7% -£8.50 4 27%
4th Best 15 5 33% £42.83 6 40%
5th Best 15 0 0% -£15.00 2 13%
6th Best 13 0 0% -£13.00 5 38%
7+ Best 16 2 13% -£1.00 3 19%

Looking at how runners have performed based on their career win strike rate, the best runner in the best does not have the greatest record with just two wins, the third best is not great either nor are those ranked 5th or worse. The two stand out ones are those ranked 2nd or fourth, both showing healthy profits and good strike rates.

Positives: Champion Court & Rocky Creek
Negatives: The Rest

Other Factors

Those dropping in trip are just 1-6 (-4.00), those running on the same ground as their last run are just 2-37 (-24.67) and looking at the runners placings in the race two starts ago, those finishing 2nd or 3rd are 0-26 and those who pulled up are 0-11.

On the positive side of things, those who finished in the first two last time out are 7-43 and those who pulled up are 4-13 (+29.08) and those who had won within their last two starts are 10-45 (+8.32).

Argento Chase Trends

Argento Chase Trends – The Good & Bad

Looking at the final positives and negatives there is one runner who is positive in all areas and that is Houblon Des Obeaux with the next best the favourite Rocky Creek.

Argento Chase Trends Bet: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX to win at 5.00 (Coral)

About Author

I have been in the betting game for getting on 10 years now, I was a late comer in the betting scene, never really showed much interest in the first 20 years of my life but then I came across a betting website and that all changed. I have learnt a vast amount over the last 5 years, I used to believe I could pick the winner in every race before I realised I could not and began selective betting which is the only way forward. I mainly stick with the horses but do occasionally stray off to bet on the footie or speedway. I am now 35 years old, born and bred in Ipswich and still here and forever a Tractorboy, work part time for a Cash & Carry and have a dog named Dave! That’s about it from me.

2 Comments

  1. Pingback: Sky Bet Chase Trends - Saturday 25th January 2014 • SBB Columns

  2. Pingback: Argento Chase Cheltenham – Race Of The Day (Sat 25th Jan) • SBB Columns

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