2.25 Cheltenham – Argento Chase Trends 2014
The Argento Chase which is registered under the name of the Cotswold Chase was first run back in 1988 and has been run every year since with the exception of 1992 and 1996, physician it has been run at Cheltenham every year apart from 2006 when it was run at Wincanton.
I shall look at the trends of previous winners to see if one runner stands out with the best chance of winning the race.
|Age||Runners||Wins||Win %||Profit/Loss||Places||Place %|
The first factor we can look at is who certain ages have fared in the past and looking at the results there is not really a major one which stands out, 12yo+ are the obvious negatives with their record of 0-9 and only one previous placing but the eldest runner in the race on Saturday is an 11yo so that is not relevant. The two which stand out are 10yo and 11yo who between then have a record of 7-34 (21%) and show an LSP of +£34.58.
Positives: Restless Harry & Pigeon Island
|Pos In Market||Runners||Wins||Win %||Profit/Loss||Places||Place %|
Market position is usually an area I like to look at to rule out a few runners, looking at this race the negatives would go to anything 6th place in the market or worse because the numbers are 1-28 (-11.00) and those going off in the first five in the market are 16-84 (+25.22).
Positives: Rocky Creek, Houblon Des Obeaux, Harry Topper, Champion Court & The Giant Bolster.
Negatives: Restless Harry & Pigeon Harry.
Days Since Last Run
|Days Since Run||Runners||Wins||Win %||Profit/Loss||Places||Place %|
The number of days a runner has been off the track can sometimes be a very good indicator and one which I always like to look in to. You can see from above that those returning having run between 31-45 days have produced nine of the winners for a LSP of +30.83 and from the 43 runners, 42% of those have gone on to place in the race. On the negative side, those returning quickly (within 25 days) are just 1-15.
Positives: Houblon Des Obeaux
Negatives: Champion Court, The Giant Bolster, Restless Harry & Pigeon Island.
Career Strike Rate
|Career Strike Rate||Runners||Wins||Win %||Profit/Loss||Places||Place %|
Looking at how runners have performed based on their career win strike rate, the best runner in the best does not have the greatest record with just two wins, the third best is not great either nor are those ranked 5th or worse. The two stand out ones are those ranked 2nd or fourth, both showing healthy profits and good strike rates.
Positives: Champion Court & Rocky Creek
Negatives: The Rest
Those dropping in trip are just 1-6 (-4.00), those running on the same ground as their last run are just 2-37 (-24.67) and looking at the runners placings in the race two starts ago, those finishing 2nd or 3rd are 0-26 and those who pulled up are 0-11.
On the positive side of things, those who finished in the first two last time out are 7-43 and those who pulled up are 4-13 (+29.08) and those who had won within their last two starts are 10-45 (+8.32).
Looking at the final positives and negatives there is one runner who is positive in all areas and that is Houblon Des Obeaux with the next best the favourite Rocky Creek.