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Criterium du Dauphine Cycling Blog

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Criterium du Dauphine Cycling Blog

Criterium du Dauphine kicks off this Sunday with the Tour De France just under a month away. Defending champions Talansky takes the line but last year we tipped him at 100/1, now coming off his US National time trial title he doesn’t look so tip top this year to take advantage of any of the big names napping. Froome meanwhile will look to get his career back on track here.

The stages are testing with a team time trial thrown in to match the Tour as it usually does in its guise as the mini tour. With just the one clear sprint stage it leaves six stages for the racing to mix itself up. The team time trial is just long enough to cost someone the race if it goes wrong it could well make the difference. From stage 5 the difficulty rating certainly moves up a level.

Criterium du Dauphine route map.

Lots are talking of the stage winning battle between Valverde and Rodriguez on the steeper ramps here but why may fall sort on the overall front. The field is full of talent but Froome is going be hard to stop if back near his best again. Given Froome is making the right sounds right now after a good block he actually is a bigger price than expected. Valverde his main rival in market can be controlled on the climbs he is unlikely to create any major gaps on stage he does well on.

At 16/1 Talansky backers would look very foolish, he was 100/1 last year and I could easily argue his chances looked better this time last year.  40/1 on Keldermann is tempting in hope he can feed off his teams strong showing at the Giro, he has shown glimpses going close here would be big. In the same vein Peraud and Bardet share leadership here, pressure off might suit Peraud even if the TTT might not go so well for Ag2r.

So a race I am looking forward to but it would surprise me if we saw the full picture from Nibali and maybe some others here.

Criterium Du Dauphine Outright Bets:

2.5pts Chris Froome 15/8 paddy power

.1pt Wilco Keldermann 40/1 bet365

.1pt J C Peraud 80/1 bet365

1pt Keldermann to beat Talansky 6/4 paddys

2pts Keldermann to beat Frank 1.82 pinnacle

2pts Froome to beat Valverde 8/15 paddys

2pts A.Yates to beat D.Martin 5/6 paddys

2pts S.Yates to beat Alaphillippe 8/11 paddys

1pt T.Van Garderen to beat Talansky 4/6 bet365

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

7 Comments

  1. Stage 1:
    ,
    An interesting stage as it should be a sprint if paced well, but with a limited sprint field could we see the chase fail, or will the racing even lead to a late breakaway. In his old FDJ team I would have faith in Bouhanni here but his Cofidis side might not have the fire power if they don’t get more help. Both Bouhanni and Modolo are top class but shame on me I am giving Mezgec one more chance after showing signs in the Giro.
    ,
    .5pts L.Mezgec 14/1 bet365
    ,
    2pts Mezgec to beat Boeckmans evens paddys

  2. Stage 3:
    ,
    Didn’t put up for stage 2 but Bouhanni looked damn impressive in victory, boassen hagen got let off by his train just a little early. Stage is a 24.5km team time trial and 2nd half is a real drag
    ,
    PROFILE: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/CDD/2015/300/PROFIL.jpg
    ,
    These are always a little tricky to call especially as we don’t have so many of them to go on and the formation of the team. Movistar don’t have a bad line up but away from Spain they have been a let down in the TTT at times. BMC are favourites and I can see why as I quiet like there line up for this one. Etixx have the motor of TT Martin but not as much depth in tt talent behind that. MTN look interesting for a non World Tour team and could compete well for this one. Bora have shown a talent for it and may also push for top 3. Sky have a decent line up and the style of the finish should suit they have the edge over Astana for me.
    ,
    1.25pts BMC 9/4 betfred
    .25pts Sky 9/1 bet365

    5pts Bora to beat Orica 1.62 pinnacle
    1.5pts BMC to beat Etixx 8/11 ladbrokes
    3pt MTN to beat IAM evens ladbrokes (2.02 pinnacle)
    1pt Lampre to beat Lotto 2.11 pinnacle
    .5pts Lampre to beat Giant 11/10 ladbrokes
    1.25pt Sky to beat Movistar 1.94 pinnacle
    1pt Sky to beat Astana 11/10 ladbrokes

  3. Stage 4:
    ,
    Mixed bag in the tt BMC won, but Orica where so good again while Bora could not repeat heroics from previous time trials here. Froome lost a little time here but there still well in contention. Keldermann lost some time, while Bardet also suffered along with Rodriguez from a poor ttt. Mollema is also on back foot.
    ,
    Onto the stage in hand. Its a long 228km with 3 climbs dotted into the mix, with one coming late into the mix, its a fairly flat finish so a sprint will e useful to finish it off but interesting to see how this one might play out. But the profile hides something there is an extra notable climbing section and also an extra late hill in the mix.
    ,
    Bouhanni has the fight in him for these days and he nailed the sprint last time. Late on Cofidis might be left with too much to do and late attacks might well pay off. I love Nielsen he has bundles of talent and could play above his odds here on a tricky day to call.

    .2pts Magnus Cort Nielsen 66/1 bet365

    3pts Navardauskas to beat Alaphillipe 1.74 pinnacle
    1.5pts Mezgec to beat Boeckmans 4/6 bet365
    1pt Boassen Hagen to beat Bouhanni 31/20 sportingbet

  4. Stage 5:
    ,
    Bouhanni was brave and powerful with his sprint win today.So moving onto stage 5 and the real business of the race. This is a proper climbing stage and expect some good racing. 161km means the day won’t be too long for the riders. The 2nd last climb should blow a few off with the late steep pitches. The long descent into the days final climb which is just over 6km at just under 7%. Really its about conserving energy and making your attack at right time on final climb or been brave to wait for the sprint.
    ,
    For me Bardet could have the smarts to get himself away on the road to the finish. With this a carbon copy of stage 17 of the tour the fields going be keenly watching each other. Will try get bit bigger on betfair on a young talent who has bit of an Aru style attack in him. We all know that Nibali is leading Astana here but rumour has it Taaramae is putting out some good numbers again and at 80/1 could he be a plan of attack.
    .

    .25pts Romain Bardet 20/1 bet365
    2pts Rein Taaramae 80/1
    .1pt Bauke Mollema 66/1 paddys
    ,

  5. Stage 6:
    So our main man Bardet struck out with a brilliant attack, I missed bigger than 20/1 in the blog but did get some 30 matched on top on betfair which was good. Onto though stage 6 of the race now. 6 categorise climbs in all but with more than that in some smaller climbs not listed. They finish on cat 3 climb but before it the cat 1 is very steady so suited to the train at 5% or so. The finish climb is just over 2km and just under the 7% with some variations in gradient.
    ,
    The day could go to valverde or the like if it does reel in the break of the day but im unsure really. Tommy V backers are risky he is just 22/1 yet you must rely on quiet a bit falling into place. Firstly I took punt on Taaramae at 90s on Betfair.. Rui Costa had an off day yesterday when falling off on the tricky climb, todays finish and easier climbs might suit him better. McCarthy is in decent order and could win from break with a team with very open plans.
    ,
    Stage Bets:
    .2pt Rein Taaramae 90 Betfair exchange
    .25pts Rui Costa 66/1 bet365
    .15pt Jay McCarthy 125/1 ladbrokes, betfair sports,
    ,
    1.5pts Intxausti to beat Bardet 39/20 sportingbet
    2pt Rui Costa to beat Keldermann 244 pinnacle
    1pt De Clercq to beat Valls 2.56 pinnacle

  6. Stage 7:
    Lots of climbing ahead and we nailed stage 6 with Rui Costa a 66/1 winner and our 2 main match bets earning us pretty penny. I see Nibali cracking today, while Rui Costa and Valverde used up lots of energy today too. So go with two who looked strong late on today and have less of GC threat to be chased without thinking.
    ,
    .6pts Simon Yates 16/1 paddys
    .4pts Dan Martin 22/1 ladbrokes
    .2pts Benat Inxausti 33/1 ladbrokes

    1pt Valls to beat Talansky 3.05 pinnacle
    2pt Froome to beat TVG 13/20 sportingbet
    1.5pts Intxausti to beat Bardet 2.66 pinnacle
    4.5pts SImon Yates to beat Valverde evens ladbrokes
    2.5pts Martin to beat Rodriguez 10/11 ladbrokes

  7. Stage 8:
    ,
    I won’t say it wasn’t without worry for Simon Yates but he fought hard and he reeled himself back into the race and beat Valverde to take our rather larget wager on him. It was 3 from 5 otherwise on the match bets for a nice profit. Onto stage 8 and the GC is now between two men Froome and TVG, sky worked hard with Poels and Kennaugh yesterday so expect them to take it easier today, sky will be interested in winning the stage again bonus time is important to a possible GC win.
    ,
    Weather is for Rain into todays race so that should again suit some riders more than others, chris froome tends to cope quiet well in the rain. It is 6 climbs for the day with the hardest cat 1 meeting them at the finish. But really its a climb of varying degrees for 40km to finish with a shortish downhill in the middle which gets steeper as the finish nears. That final climb is just under 9km at just under 6%, it starts easier and is flat just at the top.
    ,
    Finish: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/CDD/2015/800/PROFILCOLSCOTES_2.jpg
    ,
    Froome of course could double up but there may be a chance for someone else if he focuses purely on what he can do to TVG here. Intxausti is my best pick here he is 22/1 with paddys but bigger on exchanges as he looked the 3rd best rider yesterday and came 4th and I think the market has under estimated him in this market, rain should not be an issue for the basque rider. At 40.0 on betfair I have jumped at the chance and added a trade to the bet. At 33/1 with bookies and 40s with exchange Bardet could strike again after recovering well yesterday,
    ,
    .5pts Benat Intxausti 40 Betfair
    .3pts Romain Bardet 40 Betfair
    ,
    2pts Intxausti to beat Rodriugez 1.62 pinnacle
    2pts Vuilllermoz to beat Valls 17/10 sportingbet (2.46 pinnacle)
    2pt Bardet to beat Talansky 1/2 bet365
    2pts SImon Yates to beat RUi Costa 7/5 sportingbet
    2pts Martin to beat Valverde 4/7 ladbrokes

    add a pt if you are able to get on with sportingbet on yates and vuillermoz.

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