Stage 16 Preview
So stage 16 was again taking by one man brave enough to get away from his break. FDJ were at one stage chasing their own man as Roche was in no mans lan but in the end their rider Geniez had more than enough in hand. Scarponi also in the days break came home 2nd just ahead of Roche whos attack on the 2nd last climb of day allowed him to gain a handful of seconds on his main rivals. All the top 5 came home together. Their still remains 18 riders within 20 minutes of the leader Nibali and these riders are ones most likely to be involved in the final week looking for a possible top 10 spot.
Stage 16 is pretty much an uphill day for riders, its all uphill bar the downhill parts to go back up again, their is barely a flat spot all day. The climbs get harder as the do goes on too. The final climb of Aramón Formigal is 15.8 km, 4% average, 9.5% max, 640m gain. But with some flat spots and downhill its much more testing than it looks. But its not that testing and the final 4km don’t really pass the 9% mark so suits a group coming in again.
Testing weather is now behind the riders as its expected to be sunny again for this testing day something the riders will be glad of. With the rest day to follow hopefully the race is made early to cause some panic and liven it up nice and early rather than in final km or so. Astana did a fair chunk to keep the break in check today using up some of the energy in support of Nibali, he can be isolated but hes likely strong and wise enough to handle that issue should it arise.
Again as before we are likely to see some sort of moderate breakaway go and it might well stay again for that reason all the stage bets are going be small for this one. Outside of the overall contenders a name on my lips is Kiriyenka who i think could well have a big day in him. Valverde is a stage favourite but lets not forget that today he was out done by Nibali I am willing to take him on knowing the break has a great chance and that even then hes no sure thing.
.1pt Nibali (16.0 Betfair)
.1pt V.Kiriyenka 50/1 paddys
6pts Valverde not to win 1.183 pinnacle
2pts Pinot to beat Pozzovivo evens hills
3pts Uran to beat Scarponi 4/6 hills
6pts Roche to beat Scarponi 8/15 ladbrokes
2pts Capeechi to beat CA Sorensen 1.76 pinnacle
2pts D.Moreno to beat I.Anton 1.93 pinnacle