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Football: System Selections – 1 Jan

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Football Systems:

Lay the away team when evens or less

Further to the previous post, we had a successful return with 13/26 bets winning!, a nice profit of just over 4pts

This was highlighted as the timing was good… similarly, the results were likely to swing back afterwards and they did as 8 of the next 10 qualifiers were losing lays. Then we had 5/5 for the next ten which is nearer the long-term average of 45% success. The most recent 10 were then 6 winning lays and 4 unsuccessful ones, a positive return again and better than the expected average.

Thus the system ticks along with peaks and troughs – having just had a good run, it is ‘likely’ that this will balance out a bit with a worse run but that is ignoring the specific matches included – this system ignores that however and just goes on the generated picks (a few simple filters but generally away teams who are evens or less to win)

Some facts from this system as we start the new calendar year:

Austria 1 is the best league for this with 30 of 45 teams failing to win (30 winners!) which provides the best LSP, best ROI and best win ratio; Finland 1 also has the same win ratio of 67%

The best month long-term is January (LSP) although it has a similar ratio for wins as a few other months

Crawley Town are the best ‘home team’ with 7/7 times they have stopped the away team winning,

Red Bull Salzburg are the best away side with the highest LSP return for the system, 16 of 24 matches they have failed to win – Rapid Vienna also fail often which is why Austria 1 is such a good league for this system

 

The picks for 1 Jan are: Spurs, Salford, St Albans, Chelmsford and Dover but I’d keep a watching brief over these

About Author

* UK born, now live in sunny Australia * Specialise in golf & football but also dabble on the nags, cricket, US sports, AFL, etc * Always looking to go against the flow and tend to trade most of the time

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