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Football: System Selections

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System Betting:

Very brief intro here as I keep an eye on a few football systems; one of the best is a simple ‘lay the away team when under evens’ 

Long-term this system returns a small profit (positive LSP and a small ROI) and is not a short-term ‘win everything’ plan

Now this has a few filters included but the system is fairly straight-forward; the long-term average of wins is about 44% (ie 44% of away teams who start as favs under evens go on to NOT win)

With this we often get a string of losses but they are often followed by a ping-pong set of wins/losses. Currently there have been 7 losing bets so I’m posting today’s away lays as there could be a good bounce this weekend

Saturday 17th Dec:

Sydney (inplay), Cluj (inplay)
Chelsea, Newcastle
Oxford, Bolton, Bristol Rovers
Salford, Fylde
Chelmsford, Glentoran, Cliftonville
Falkirk, Dundee Utd, Forfar, Hibernian
PSG, Besiktas
The New Saints, Brighton, Utrecht
Benfica, Gent

Sunday 18th Dec:

Brisbane Roar, Inter, Bayern M
Dinamo Bucuresti

That’s 27 away teams to lay, level stakes, with the plan being enough of them don’t win to return a profit!

About Author

* UK born, now live in sunny Australia * Specialise in golf & football but also dabble on the nags, cricket, US sports, AFL, etc * Always looking to go against the flow and tend to trade most of the time

2 Comments

  1. ps some of these were generated at a price of 2.0 on Betfair but have subsequently gone out further (2.1 or so).. this usually means they should become a no-bet but they are kept in the results due to consistency and original price

  2. no Gent game, 26 matches and 13 away faves won, but 13 didnt win either! a very positive result with a 95% return on each winning ‘lay’ (betfair 5% commission deducted)

    the winning ‘lays’ all return 0.95 of the 1 unit liability, whereas the losers cost the liability of the bet.. in these cases, that’s 1 unit at various prices such as Oxford 2.0 (loss of 1 unit) and Bayern at 1.12 (loss of just 1.12 units)

    summary > 13 winning lays resulting in 12.35 units
    and 13 losing bets resulting in -8.30 units

    overall profit > 4.05 units

    that’s a great return considering we had 26 bets and the worse scenario was that all lost (about a 16pt liability)… the actual return was just over a 4pt profit

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