Grand National Trends 2014
It is almost that time of the year again with the Grand National fast approaching which means it is time to start looking at some trends! With the recent changes to the fences some people question whether the trends are worth looking at or not but I still believe they can play a big role is narrowing down the field as some things never change.
I shall go over the basics, go through those which you have asked for and then look at some which are not so obvious!
The numbers that I shall be presenting in this blog are all based on Placed runners compared to the total number of runners for each factor and the data will stretch back to 1997, all the data will ONLY consist of data from runs in the UK or IRE and runs abroad will be ignored.
Grand National Trends 2014 – The Ages
There is some clear indications as to what runners you should look towards regarding ages, the younger runners have not faired well, those 6yo or 7yo have not produced a single place from 44 runners whilst the older runners which are 13yo or older have not produced a place from 18 runners.
All of the places have been filled from those aged between 8yo and 12yo as the chart below shows, 11yo runners have the best strike rate at 13.79% with 16 placed runners from 116 but the 9yo runners have produced the most places with 23 but from 177 of runners.
Another way to look at the ages is a runners age compared to the youngest runner in the field as this could throw up something that the above does not. The youngest runners in the field have produced 2 places from 42 runners and those 1 year older then the youngest have also produced 2 places from 68 runners, these two factors combined give you a strike rate of 3.85% which is not great!
As the above suggests the older runners do struggle and those which are 7 year or more older than the youngest runner have not produced a place from 12 runners. The main concentration of places have gone to those which are 2-4 years older than the youngest runner in the race but those 5-6 years older have also produced places.
Grand National Trends 2014 – The Weights
This has always been a race in which weights in terms of places has not really given you much to go on, the weight have been pretty much spread out over the field, in terms of winners there has not been a winner carrying more than 11-6 but in terms on places they have carried as high as 12-0.
In terms of number of places to number of runners the higher percentages actually come from those carrying more than 11-0, those carrying less have a strike rate of 9.92% whilst those carrying more are 12.34% but there is not really enough of the a difference between the ranges in the chart below to suggest anything.
I have also gone through the weights vs the top weight, vs the bottom weight and vs the average weight and these all pretty much throw up the same numbers as above, so in terms of the places I do not believe that the weight category is one worth paying much attention too.
I have filtered out the weights for the past five years only which show that those carrying under 10-11 are 5-97 (5%) whilst those carrying 10-11 or more are 15-85 (18%) so recent years would strongly suggest runners carrying 10-11 or more!
Grand National Trends 2014 – The Break
The number of days since the runner was last at a racecourse is what we are looking at here and like the weights there is not a great number of negatives in this section, the only slight negative is those returning from a 76-120 day break who have a low strike rate of just 4.26% with 2 places from 47 runners, the rest all look fine with the best section coming from 16-30 days which is 33-290 and a place strike rate of 13.13%.
Grand National Trends 2014 – The Handicap
We already know that weights do not look very helpful and that would suggest that Official Rating would produce the same and looking at them that is correct but there is more that we can look at, we can look at movement since their last run and movement since their last win to see if it throws anything up!
Looking at handicap movement since the runners last start does give you some guidance, for starters those who are up in the handicaps between 10lbs and 14lbs have a place strike rate of 24% with 6 places from 25 runners but those who are up 15lbs or more are best left alone, they have produced just 1 place from 42 runners.
Those up 7lbs to 9lbs have only produced 1 place but from only 17 runners whilst those down in the handicaps 1lb to 3lbs have a 14% strike rate which is decent (10-70) but those down 4lbs or more are probably best left alone with just 2 places from 41 runners.
Looking at the numbers of the official ratings compared to their last handicap win there is not a great difference, those down 6lbs or more don’t have a great record but then you would expect that because if they are down that amount on their last win then they are not coming into this race in great form and those who have not recorded a win in a handicap are next worse.
The two best ranges are those up 4lbs-6lb (13.10%) and those up 10lbs-12lbs (13.56%) but as I say there is not a big difference, I think eliminating those down 6lbs or more would be good for this section.
Grand National Trends 2014 – The Trip
I wanted to look at how far a runners had been in the past and over which furthest trip they had won over and the first thing that becomes apparent is those who had never run over three miles of further are best left alone because theses have not produced a place from twenty-one runners, the numbers would suggest that those who had previous run over and won over 3m2f or more have the best number.
Grand National Trends 2014 – Recent Form
Looking at recent form it would suggest that you need at least one half decent result in the runner last three starts and when I am talking half decent I mean a result of 8th or better, those who had not finished 8th or better in any of their last three starts have not produced a single place from 30 runners and you could expand that to ‘Best In Last 5 Starts’ which you want to look at runners who have finished 4th or better in their last five starts.
Looking at the runners most recent start (in UK or IRE) and once again you want to be looking at those who finished in the first eight, although those finishing 4th or 6th do not have great records, of those who Did Not Finish (DNF) on their last start those who unseated their rider at 0-13 in terms of places.
Looking at what runners carried in their last start throws up some guidance, those off a light weight last time out have not fared so well, carrying 10-4 or less have produced just 2 places from 74 runners and those carrying 12-1 or more have not produced a place albeit from only 8 runners. Those who carried between 10-11 and 10-13 are worth noting as from 63 runners 12 of those have gone on to place which is a 19% strike rate.
Grand National Trends 2014 – Previous National Experience
This is looking at runners who had previously run in the Aintree Grand National, the Welsh Grand National, the Scottish Grand National and the Irish Grand National and looking at fields in the Aintree Grand National since 2003.
Previous Aintree Grand National:
- Best Placed 1st-5th are 11-56 (20%)
- Best Placed 6th-10th are 3-19 (16%)
- Best Placed 11th+ are 0-7 (0%)
- Did Not Complete are 4-70 (6%)
Previous Irish Grand National:
- Best Placed 1st-5th are 4-27 (15%)
- Best Placed 6th-10th are 1-17 (6%)
- Best Placed 11th+ are 0-3 (3%)
- Did Not Complete are 0-11 (0%)
Previous Scottish Grand National:
- Best Placed 1st-5th are 2-20 (10%)
- Best Placed 6th-10th are 3-14 (22%)
- Best Placed 11th+ are 0-2 (0%)
- Did Not Complete are 2-25 (8%)
Previous Welsh Grand National:
- Best Placed 1st-5th are 9-38 (24%)
- Best Placed 6th-10th are 0-10 (0%)
- Best Placed 11th+ are 0-0 (0%)
- Did Not Complete are 4-30 (13%)
I think the stand-out numbers above are those who had previously finished in the first 5 of the Welsh National who have a 24% place strike rate!
Grand National Trends 2014 – Other Notes
Just some other notes to bare in mind when making your selections, those who made their debuts on the flat have a record of 1-19, looking at debut runs and 50 of the 68 places went to runners who finished in the first four on debut. Looking at where they ran last time out and these tracks are not great, Kempton (0-23), Warwick (0-15) and Navan (0-13) but watch out for runners who ran at Naas (5-14 36%).
Runners out of Old Vic (Minella For Value & Sunnyhillboy) are 6-23 (26%) in the place market, runners without a win in 301-365 days have a record of 10-42 (24%) and those who had won in the past 21-30 days are 6-24 (25%). Those whose last win came in a race with prize money of £100k+ are 6-29 (21%).
Looking back at the Stallions, those who had produced winners at Aintree within the last year are 29-169 (17%) compared to those who hadn’t 39-495 (8%).
Grand National Trends 2014 – Summary
- Runners aged between 8yo and 11yo
- Runners aged between 2-6 years older than the youngest runner
- Look for those either -3lb to +14lb since last run or making handicap debut
- Runners carrying 10-11 or more
- Runners who have run and won over 3m2f or further
- Runners who had finished 8th or better in last three starts
- Runners who had finished 4th or better in last five starts
- Runners who carried between 10-5 and 12-0 last time out
- Did not make debut in a flat race (Not including NHF)
- Finished 4th or better on debut
- (Bonus) Those who have won over 4m2f+ (20%)
- (Bonus) Had previously finished in the first 5 of the GN (20%)
- (Bonus) Had previously finished 6th-10th in the Scottish GN (22%)
- (Bonus) Had previously finished in the first 5 of the Welsh GN (24%)
- (Bonus) Last start was at Naas (36%)
- (Bonus) Stallion is Old Vic (26%)
- (Bonus) Last win was either 21-30 or 301-365 days (25%)
- (Bonus) Last win was for prize of £100k+ (21%)
- (Bonus) Finished in first 8 LTO (Not 4th or 6th) (17%)
Grand National Trends 2014 – Early Thoughts
First of all based on the facts that I have given above about runs in previous nationals, in the current field of 73 runners there are two which have finished top 5 in a previous running of this race and they are Teaforthree (10/1) and Sunnyhillboy (25/1) who don’t forgot also come out under the stallion trend. Only Any Currency (100/1) meets the factor of having placed 6th-10th in a previous Scottish National.
There are plenty of runners who met the Welsh National criteria, those are Hawkes Point (40/1), Monbeg Dude (20/1), Mountainous (40/1), One In A Milan (66/1), Tidal Bay (16/1) and again Teaforthree (10/1).
Using the above trends would reduce the field of 73 down to just 3 runners! The remaining three are the favourite Teaforthree (10/1) along with the 2nd favourite Long Run (14/1) and then last year’s winning yard completes the remaining three with Mr Moonshine (50/1).
Grand National Trends 2014 – The Selections
Teaforthree 5.37pt Win at 10/1 (Various)
Long Run 3.47pt Win at 16/1 (Various)
Mr Moonshine 1.16pt Win at 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
The above staking plan involves placing a total stake of 10 points, should any of the selections win you will receive a profit of +49.05pts.
Please Note that these are the TREND selections, these are not my own!