York 54th John Smith’s Cup (Heritage Handicap)
2:55pm – Class 2 (3yo+) 1m2f88y
Last Time Out Distance
No horse has won from 58 attempts when stepping down to today’s distance. This eliminates King’s Warrior, Stencive, Beaumont’s Party, Expert Fighter, Saptapadi, Star Lahib, Fennell Bay & Angel Gabrial.
No horse older than 5 has won this race which eliminates Tres Coronas. Just backing runners that meets the above two criteria would have provided all 16 winners from 197 runners with a level stakes profit of +16.00.
Trainer’s Number Of Runners In Race
We get in to the nitty gritty area now, but one particular ideal I like for these large handicaps is runners that have been targetted for the race. It doesn’t come as too much of a surprise then to see that horses who have a stablemate in the race too have won just 2 from 46 runs in comparison to 13 from 134 from those trainers with just a single runner.
This eliminates Area Fifty One, Toto Skyllachy, Clon Brulee, Awake My Soul, Danchai and Garde Cotiere
The last stat that stands out for me concerns horses who are stepping up in class. Those who have previously raced in this class or higher have 8 wins from 115 runs. Horses that were stepping up in class for this race have 5 wins from 19 runners.
This eliminates Validus, Educate, Clatyon and Forgotten Hero, leaving us with just NICEOFYOUTOTELLME.
Ralph Beckett’s runner has come back better then eer for his 4yo campaign winning his two starts this year ahead of subsequent winners both times including at Newmarket over 1m2f in a Class 2 when beating Nabucco who then won a better Class 2 race over the same course and distance off 3lbs higher. He should get a fast pace to aim at and York will provide a stiffer test which should suit this hold up horse and having only been raised 5lbs for his latest victory it’s not hard to imagine more to come with conditions ideal.
3pt Win NICEOFYOUTOTELLME @ 8/1