The Cambridgeshire (3.50 Newmarket)
A Look at the Trends
All of the last ten winners have been aged between 3yo-6yo and there have only been two winners older than 6 to win the race, treat Baronet in 1980 and then the last one was Rambo’s Hall back in 1992 so that is 20 races without a winner aged 7yo+
Eliminate: Prince Of Johanne, link Dance and Dance and Sam Sharp.
Top Weighted runners have a poor record in this race, recipe in the past ten years there has been twelve go off top weight and none of those have made the placings, in fact only of those have finished in the first nine. Those carry penalties have not done too good either, from 42 runners carrying a penalty only 1 has gone on to win (7 Placed).
Runners carrying 9-7 or more have not produced a winner from 28 runners and only 3 of those have gone on to place and runners carrying 8-6 or less have produced just 1 winner from 69 runners (5 Placed).
Eliminate: Area Fifty One, Belgian Bill, Educate, Field Of Dream, Graphic, Ascription, Strictly Silver and Pacific Heights.
The last nine winners came into the race having run 4-7 times that season and finished in the first four last time out.
Eliminate: Bronze Angel, Marcret, Robert The Painter, Fury, Danchai, Nine Realms, Proud Chieftain, Queensberry Rules, King George River, Red Avenger, Boonga Roogeta and Seek Again.
The last nine winners had at least placed in a class two race and the last eight posted a RPR of 96+ on their last start.
The last nine winner had won a race with 13+ runners and eight of the last ten had won over 1m2f.
Eliminate: Arsaadi, Gabrial The Great, The Rectifier, Captain Bertie and Jack’s Revenge.
This leaves us with three runners who are all decent prices so the question is do we dutch the three of them or try to eliminate one more, I would hate to eliminate another and then the law of sod would happen!
Both SkyBet and Paddypower are offering 6 places on this race but then as expected their odds are shorter on all three runners so as long as we steer clear of 888Sports, Coral & WilliamHill who are shockingly only paying out on 4 places then we should be fine.
Bet 1: Tha’ir @ 25/1 – £3.45 Eachway (Win: +£94.71, Place: +£5.01)
Bet 2: Code Of Honour @ 22/1 – £3.89 Eachway (Win: +£94.76, Place: +£5.29)
Bet 3: Tres Coronas @ 33/1 – £2.65 Eachway (Win: +£94.61, Place: +£4.51)
The stakes above are just an example of how to dutch, you can you whatever total stake that you want, in the example I have used a total stake of £20 and have put in what you would get back for win or place on each so if one of them places then you will make a profit, not a big one but a profit but we really want a winner!