Guest Post from Daniel Murphy
After complete and utter domination from Mercedes at the season opening Australian Grand Prix, page the Formula 1 circus arrives in Kuala Lumpur for the Malaysian Grand Prix this Sunday.
So what do we know about the class of 2015 after one race?
Mercedes have come back even better and stronger than their dominant 2014 season. This is of course scary for the other 9 teams attempting to pry the World Championships from their hands.
Behind Mercedes, Ferrari seem to be next best, followed very closely by the Mercedes powered Williams.
With the two Silver Arrows so dominant, there is little value for punters for the race win. A Mercedes win is currently paying $1.02, while Lewis Hamilton began the weekend a $1.53 favourite. Lewis showed in Melbourne the class and gap he now has over Nico Rosberg, and unlike last year when the two were very closely matched it seems very unlikely that Nico will better Lewis in a straight fight this season.
Ferrari look the “best of the rest”, with strong race runs through practice. Unfortunately traffic in qualifying curtailed any chance of Kimi Raikkonen featuring on Sunday, however Sebastian Vettel at $2.25 for a podium finish is a recommended bet as the Ferrari should have the pace to hold out Bottas, Massa and the Red Bulls.
With little value at the top of the field, we need to be a bit more creative with other bet recommendations.
After very impressive debuts in Australia, the Torro Rosso pair of Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz are seemingly not far behind “big brothers” Red Bull. Having qualified in the top 10, the $2.50 available for Verstappen to remain in the 10 for the race is providing great value.
Not having had the chance to show their true pace at Albert Park, the Lotus piloted by Romain Grosjean should also hold its place in the top 10 and anything above $1.70 is a suggested bet. The Lotus looks pacey and has improved considerably over the 2014 car.
Finally for those who love a bet on the weather as much as a race result, the current $2.45 available for there not being a safety car is outstanding value if the race remains dry. With only one safety car at Sepang in the past seven years (in a wet race), and lots of run off room for any mistakes, the race should go by relatively incident free.
Good luck to all those having a bet this weekend