Melbourne Cup UPDATE
Tues 5th November, 3pm local time, Flemington
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With the draw being favourable to Fiorente and not so much to Mount Athos, I have cooled my interest a little bit – Mount Athos should still go really well and has the best jockey around in Craig Williams but I am considering others a bit more now which is usual as the lead up to any big race has so much information and possibilities!
Fiorente obviously ran so well last year when 2nd to Green Moon and has been drawn well – Damian Oliver is on board and he has won this race before so that helps too; has had a good warm-up and fits in well when looking at a the trends for this race so it’s clear why Fiorente has firmed up as the fav. I’m not quite convinced yet and can see a top 4 place for sure – I expect Fiorente to get off to a decent start and try to settle in the front bunch, looking to pick them off late on
Sea Moon won the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot beating a bunch of these fancied rivals back then – recent form has been good with a win lto in the Herbert Power over a mile and a half and being first across the line prior to that in a Listed race (disqualified into 2nd); drawn ideally in barrier 7, Sea Moon should really make a fair bit of the running and may have Brown Panther for company but just feel they may both get picked off in the home straight
Mount Athos should go well and is still my pick, I expect him near the back of the field, probably alongside Dandino, Verema and Voleuse De Coeurs and if these 4, settle not too far back, then they can all make moves late on and try to time that winning run to perfection. The problem may be Hawkspur, Dear Demi and others drawn wider who will all be settling in near the rear, having a good jockey here will make a difference and obviously a bit of luck too
Simenon is starting to catch my eye a bit – almost the joker in the pack with a light weight; Mullins has been planning this race for a while for Simenon and he ran well in that Herbert Power when a close 3rd to Sea Moon. A really good stayer and perhaps one to add in to perms if you think he can make the top few with a late run
Fawkner looks good on trends and also won the Caulfield Cup of course but I think the trip might be a bit too far for him; Dear Demi is popular as has been racing well and with 3rd and 2nd place finishes in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and Mackinnon (2000m) respectively, has been reasonably well-backed here
So, there is a case to be made for many if not all in this; 2011 Dunaden is a big 40 odd price and is still a class act, also goes well fresh and may well feature but the top 5 for me will be
Mount Athos (win)
I have cooled on Voleuse De Coeurs and am keener on Simenon and Fiorente now… we shall see how it pans out tomorrow!