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Paris Nice 2015 Cycling Preview

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Paris Nice 2015 Cycling Preview

Paris Nice 2015 gets the World Tour under way in Europe. A day after the excellent Strade Bianche in which Stybar rewarded our faith we hit 7 days of racing from the North of France to the sun in Nice by the weekend. Last year we saw some hectic racing as every single second counted and Betancur despite the few extra bounds he carried proved the best racer.

We open with a prologue with just 6.7km which is pretty flat.  Not sure if either stage 1 or 2 will be for the overall contenders. Stage 3 has 3 climbs but all out from the finish. There is late bump but it looks a reduced sprint on the face of it. Stage 4 will be one hell of a test, 204km is a long stage for this time of year. 130km in it really kicks off after just two earlier climbs. They then take on 5 climbs of mixed nature none too long none too steep but sure to sap the energy. Its a mountain top finish with the final climb up the Croix de Chaubouret. 10km at 6.7% means we have a long testing climb to break it up.

Stage 5 looks the wrong way an early climb is followed by a mostly flat parcours. There is a late climb but how much it breaks apart is doubtful. Stage 6 has gone with the downhill finish from a decent climb, there is lots of climbing on the day so interesting see who gets over the top first with a bit of distance left to the base in Nice. The end stage is interesting with a hill time trial chosen. That prologue is just under 10km at 4.7% however most the climb is around 6% with the last km and half pretty much flat, the start is steep but it eases of then expect some quick times.

I won’t be backing Peraud for this one as he has admitted a delayed start to his 2015 campaign. Lampre are duel handed really with Rui Costa but also Oman winner Valls now in the public eye. Movistar have a lot of talent so its hard to say which way they might play this. Gorka has the talents, and Inxausti was not far off in Andelucia. Then we have Ion who has shown form already this year. Aru turns out after a long break for Astana, but they also have Sanchez and Taaramae as more raced options.  To add Fugslang is also in the line up.

BMC have the hour record holder here in Dennis but his team mate Van Garderen is the ultimate focus for this one. Sky has plenty talent to help out Porte for this one his main mountain help should come from Roche. Giant have Barguil and Dumoulin for this, Dumoulin is developing into a contender but hes been set back in the build up.  Orica have a stage hunting team for this, Matthews doesn’t have the time trial or big climbs in him to challenge overall. Chavanel is down to lead IAM but given the climbing involved is Frank better suited. Lotto are building around Keldermann who had a stellar 2014.

Lotto have some stage winners in waiting too, it would be great to see De Gendt revive his best days. Tinkoff has sent the cock sure Majka here off his humbling in Oman, by his side is the strong Kiserlovski who can be there deep into stages. Etix seem built around Kwiatkowski who seems to want to expand beyond one day wins opting out of defending his Strade Bianche title. Katusha have Spilak or Machado neither appeals to me in this. Trek has Jungels who again will time trial well but the climbs might find him out. Cannondale are building around Talansky here and of course there a squad that always supports well. Sepulveda leads Bretagne and I really want see how he goes at this level of racing.

Tejay Van Garderen can win Paris Nice 2015

Paris Nice 2015 Outright Winner:

Really thought about Majka at 20/1 but he might lose key seconds in the prologue, so might hit bigger before the latter end when he should thrive. Porte has a really hot challenge here in TVG and its one the prices don’t think is as close as it really is. Talansky is a superb talent with great racing skills to win this remember he won last year for us at 100/1. Last but not least Movistar strong handed are always worth a shout for there under rated talents.

1pt Tejay Van Garderen 9/2 paddy

.3pts Andreew Talansky 14/1 boylesports

.1pt Benat Inxausti 66/1 boylesports

Paris Nice Match Bets:

1pt Sepulveda to beat Machado 2.22 pinnacle

5pts Rui Costa to beat Spilak 5/6 paddys

.5pts Rui Costa to beat Bardet (1.95 888sport)

5pts Talansky to beat Kwiatkowski 8/11 paddys

1pt Talansky to beat Keldermann  2.01 pinnacle

.5pts Van Garderen to beat Porte 31/20 sportingbet (2.55 pinnacle)

1pt LL Sanchez to beat Peraud 17/20 sportingbet

1pt Frank to beat Barguil 6/5 sportingbet

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

8 Comments

  1. Prologue:

    Dumoulin might not be ready for the hills but he could strike in this prologue which is very different to the 10km plus stuff. Inxtausti will have to be truely on it to win but 300/1 is an insane price I could not refuse.

    .35pts Tom Dumoulin 16/1 paddys
    .1pt Inxtausti 300/1 paddys

    1pt Dumoulin to beat Dennis 3.05 pinnacle
    3pts Chavanel to beat VanDe Walle 8/11 sportingbet (7/10 hills)
    1.5pts Ion to beat Gorka 1.69 pinnacle

  2. Stage 2:
    Sprint stage just going with old reliable Kristoff

    1pt Kristoff 7/2 ladbrokes

    1pt Kristoff to Greipel 4/6 bet365
    1.5pts Degenkolb to beat Boonen 8/13 lads

  3. Stage 3:

    A few hills but one for the strong sprinters.Its slightly uphill at the finish.Pace is kept high it plays into the riders like Kristoff or Degenkolb. But at much great prices I am looking the way of Matthews and Rojas to spring a suprise.

    .3pts Matthews 10/1 betvic
    .2pts Rojas 33/1 bet365

    3pts Kristoff to beat Greipel 1.59 pinnacle
    1pt Vichot to beat Gilbert 13/8 bet365
    1.5pts Matthews to beat Degenkolb 2.79 pinnacle
    1pt LL Sanchez to beat Kwiatkowski 2.52 pinnacle
    2pts Rojas Gil to beat Hofland 1.795 pinnacle
    1pt Van Garderen to beat Porte 2.33 pinnacle

  4. Stage 4:

    So Matthews delivered for the blog at 10/11 also all our match bets won except for Sanchez beaten a few places at the front end by Kwia, excellent returns considering the odds involved some very nice prices going.

    Stage 4 is key, its the mountain top finish.It has 8 climbs in all with the final climb the stand out chase.

    Profile: http://www.procyclingstats.com/uploads/uploads00001/original/Stage-1424859161.jpg

    10km at 6.7%, The two easiest part are near the start and finish otherwise its pretty much 7% all the way. Its a good even climb and its going be a good battle. All the talk is of Porte but can his colours be lowered.

    Stage Winners:
    .3pts Romain Bardet 11/1 bet365 (13.79 pinnacle)
    .3pts Tejay VaN Garderen 8/1 various

    Match Bets:

    16pts Invested to oppose Kwia, its a 10km climb its nearly 7% all along I just don’t see how he matches two of the best riders in the field, its limit his losses at best.

    1.5pts Sepulveda to beat Peraud 7/10 sportingbet
    1.5pts Sanchez to beat Thomas 6/4 bet365
    8pts Porte to beat Kwiaktowski 4/9 hills
    8pts Van Garderen to beat Kwiaktowski 1/2 paddys
    2pts Rui Costa to beat Spilak 4/6 ladbrokes

  5. Stage 5:

    A little hilly but the uphill sprint means anyone who gets dropped is unlikely to have been able to contest this type of finish, its look like 700m at 4-5% so it should be interesting. Matthews won the other day but hes much shorter and there to be shot at. Two wildcards for me are Gallopin who we know can stage hunt and he can kick 50/1 is too big. Rui Costa its early season but he could strike at big odds 80/1 he has his ways. Degenkolb at twice the Matthews price has to be taken.

    .75pts John Degenkolb 8/1 various
    .25pts Tony Gallopin 50/1 hills
    .1pt Rui Costa 80/1 bet365

    1pt T.Dumoulin to beat Girkoa Iza 2.37 pinnacle
    .5pts Spilak to beat Bardet 2.73 pinnacle

  6. Stage 6:

    Should done more on match bet front yesterday but so be it. Crazy big price on Spilak not an ideal finish for him but conditions are just what he likes and 66/1 is far too nice. Fugslang should be ok in weather and 50s is worth taking, an outside risk on Valls at 80s.

    .4pts Fugslang 50/1 paddys
    .6pts Spilak 66/1 bet365
    .1pt R.Valls 80/1 bet365

    1pt LL Sanchez to beat DUmoulin evens bet365
    1pt Wellens to beat DUmoulin 10/11 ladbrokes
    1pt SPilak to beat Valls evens bet365

  7. Stage 7:

    Gallopin had of course being on the mind but at 12s I think I saw I just couldnt back he needed to be an early attack and then hope to stay away with smart tactics he did just that. We won over in TA but in PN we hit a cross bar with 2nd at 66/1, we also had the 4th and 5th.

    PN finishes with this uphill tt. Its 9.6km, the opening 2km are 8% plus.It eases up very much till half way where it nears 8% for less than a km. Inside 2km it evens off for a very fast part of the time trial. Gallopin will put in the effort of his life to hold on while both Sky riders will need to show no ill affects from the tumbles on the stage. Going go with two choice outsiders

    .3pts Rui Costa 33/1 ladbrokes
    .3pts Tehay Van Garderen 15/1 bet365

    1pt Rui Costa to beat Spilak 1.69 pinnacle
    2pts Wellens to beat Keldermann 2.01 pinnacle
    .5pts De Gendt to beat Martin 2/1 bet365 (3.01 pinnacle)

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