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Horse Racing Tips

This blog will track my horse racing selections and will involve a specific staking plan which I shall call the ‘gecko staking plan’ as I can’t think of a relevant name that explains it! I usually stick to singles betting and level stakes but the whole purpose of this blog is to see if my staking plan bears fruit.

My selections are usually at reasonable odds and as such the staking plan reflects that as it is geared to pay our much more when a decent sized winner comes in; if I reversed it and piled the stakes on when there was a short-priced heavy fav, I might get more winners but the relevant payout wouldn’t affect the profit as much as an 8/1 shot would. By increasing the stakes, the 6/1 or 12/1 winner pays out enough to cover a string of losing bets. I usually back win only too as I’m not a fan of each-way betting but there may be times when an each-way bet is warranted.

STAKING PLAN >

up to 2/1 odds > 1 pt

up to 3/1 > 2pts

up to 4/1 > 3pts

up to 5/1 > 4pts

over 5/1 > 5pts 

  • This is really simple and just increases the stake as the odds increase – again, the justification for this is that an occasional decent-odds winner will pay well.
  • With a reasonable strike rate, this system will produce a good profit.
  • If I can’t find many winners or any at decent prices, then the staking means a rapid loss.

* I will begin with a bank of 5,000pts

* Selections will be for all races except where there is a pick that is heavily odds-on (I will ignore these) or if it is a race that just doesn’t warrant a pick

* I will track the SP and also the BSP as the Betfair Starting Price is the one I will be using where possible for this system. I will also monitor the blog using level stakes (LSP) purely for interest

NB: this blog will track my selections and odds to see if there are enough winners and also whether the staking plan works – I will list my picks and the results with the odds taken at the time and the SP (the odds affect the stake hence the odds ‘taken’ and the eventual odds)

Off and running with today’s picks later on

 

31 Comments

  1. WED 6 MAR

    Kempton
    530 > Dangerous Age 4.3
    600 > Incorporate 2.4
    630 > Spirit Of Gondree 7.2
    700 > Robin Hoods Bay 3.6
    730 > Haadeeth 7.8
    800 > x
    830 > Supa Seeker 8.6

    Lingfield
    200 > x
    230 > Dorothy’s Dancing 3.2
    300 > Spinning Ridge 8.6
    330 > x
    400 > Admiral Duque 17.5
    430 > Honey Of A Kitten 4.7
    500 > Young Jackie 2.82

    Fontwell
    210 > x
    240 > Chestnut Ben 3.75
    310 > Billy Twyford 4.9
    340 > Speedy Bruere 2.4
    410 > x
    440 > Princely Hero 5.5
    510 > Hawaii Five Nil 3.05

    > these are the Betfair prices as of now so will take these and stake accordingly – will check results against SP and BSP too for comparison purposes

  2. I should clarify that ‘up to’ means that…eg up to 5/1 means a betfair price of 5.99 would warrant a stake of 4pts (being up to 5/1) whereas a betfair price of 6.0 is /1 which would mean it qualifies as a 5pt bet

  3. Day 1 results as follows:

    16 selections
    average odds taken > 5.65
    average SP > 5.43
    average BSP > 6.32 (over 5/1 if taking this price!)
    4 x winners, 5 x 2nds, 4 x 3rds = 13 placed 1-3

    pick > price taken / position

    dangerous age 4.30 3rd
    incorporate 2.40 2nd
    spirit of gondree 7.20 5th
    robin hoods bay 3.60 1st
    haadeeth 7.80 2nd
    supa seeker 8.60 3rd
    dorothy’s dancing 3.20 1st
    spinning ridge 8.60 6th
    admiral duque 17.50 3rd
    honey of a kitten 4.70 3rd
    young jackie 2.82 4th
    chestnut ben 3.75 2nd
    billy twyford 4.90 1st
    speedy bruere 2.40 1st
    princely hero 5.50 2nd
    hawaii five nil 3.05 2nd

    fontwell was decent with 2 winners and 3 x 2nd out of 5

    betfair IN RUNNING lows featured > incorporate (2nd) 1.36, haadeeth (2nd) 1.55, young jackie (4th) 1.29, chestnut ben (2nd) 1.12, hawaii five nil (2nd) 1.08 > plenty of trading ops there!

    BP taken
    staked > 49pts
    return > 29.17 (after 5% comm)
    net profit/loss > -19.83
    LSP > -1.90

    not bad with 4 winners at reasonable prices but 5 x 2nd places meant it could have been much better (some were so close as evidenced by the in-running lows)

    SP
    staked > 50pts
    return > 38.2pts
    net profit/loss > -11.8pts

    BSP
    staked > 56pts
    return > 46.84pts
    net P/L > .-9.16pts

    ** the difference in prices taken shows SP better and BSP the best than the betfair prices taken

  4. DAY 2 >

    southwell >

    220 xpres maite 7.40
    250 very first blade 4.80
    325 rainford glory 2.52
    355 derby to dubai 3.10
    430 caldercruix 6.60
    500 aubrietia 3.15
    530 x

    wolves >

    540 x
    610 dark lane 6.80
    640 rise to glory 7.80
    710 misleading promise 3.50
    740 big sylv 3.25
    810 pairumani prince 6.20
    840 scary movie 3.05

    carlisle >

    210 valleyofmilan 18.00
    240 rudemeister 3.95
    315 big water 3.05
    345 heez a steel 12.00
    420 red tyke 8.40
    450 diamond frontier 6.40
    520 simarthur 6.80

    * plenty of big prices today so 10x 5pt selections!

  5. DAY 2 RESULTS:

    picks / price / position >

    xpres maite 7.40 3rd
    very first blade 4.80 4th
    rainford glory 2.52 4th
    derby to dubai 3.10 2nd
    caldercruix 6.60 1st
    aubrietia 3.15 1st
    dark lane 6.80 1st
    rise to glory 7.80 4th
    misleading promise 3.50 3rd
    big sylv 3.25 2nd
    pairumani prince 6.20 4th
    scary movie 3.05 4th
    valleyofmilan 18.00 4th
    rudemeister 3.95 2nd
    big water 3.05 2nd
    heez a steel 12.00 5th
    red tyke 8.40 4th
    diamond frontier 6.40 1st
    simarthur 6.80 2nd

    selections > 19
    4 winners
    5 x 2nd
    2 x 3rd placed 1-3 > 11 out of 19

    staked > 68pts
    return > 100.04 (after BF comm)
    P/L > 32.04pts

    LSP > +3.95

    average odds taken > 6.15
    avg SP odds > 6.01
    avg BSP > 6.96

    * 4 more nice winners, 3 of which were 5pt bets (over 5/1)

    * some decent trading ops again, rise to glory traded IR at 1.8, simarthur at 1.33 (drifted to 11 pre the start!), red tyke 2.2 (from 12), heez a steel 2.38 (from 8.4), valleyofmilan 3.35 (from 15.12), misleading promise 1.65…

  6. overall >

    staked > 117pts
    return > 129.20
    profit > 12.2pts
    ROI > >10.4%
    LSP > 2.05
    strike rate winners > 22.9%
    strike placed 1-3 > 68.6%
    average odds taken > 5.92
    SP avg odds > 5.29
    Betfair SP avg odds > 6.66

    > average odds shows almost 5/1 so this is as expected, no picking short priced favs – decent prices so not many winners but 8 so far at good odds means a profit. Also had a lot of 2nds (10) so could have been much better

    > taking BSP means a better return (higher stakes but more profit) – the BSP has been 12% better on average than the odds taken

    staked > 130pts
    return > 161.68pts
    profit > 31.68pts

    trading wise > every single selection (35) has traded lower in-running than its betfair SP which is a good sign, plenty have traded way lower and sub 2.0 so some steady profits could have been made if trading the picks

  7. DAY 3 SELECTIONS >

    market rasen >

    220 > x
    250 lucky landing 3.10
    320 the big freeze 3.15
    350 crowning jewel 6.20
    420 be my deputy 3.20
    450 oranger 3.05
    520 iktiview 7.60

    warwick>

    200 bincombe 5.00
    230 > x
    300 woodford coutny 4.60
    330 shalambar 3.55
    400 pensnett bay 10.00
    430 > x
    500 > freddies return 1.88

    * usual stakes, total stake 33pts

  8. Day 3 results:

    m/rasen >

    lucky landing 3.10 1st
    the big freeze 3.15 3rd
    crowning jewel 6.20 2nd
    NR
    oranger 3.05 2nd
    iktiview 7.60 6th

    warwick >

    bincombe 5.00 8th
    woodford county 4.60 5th
    shalambar 3.55 1st
    pensnett bay 10.00 p/u
    freddies return 1.88 2nd

    10bets due to a NR
    staked > 31pts
    returns > 12.64pts
    p/l > -18.36pts

    * not such a good day, 2 winners and 3 2nd places but a loss on the day; some good trading though again with the big freeze trading down to 1.25 in-running, oranger 1.4, freddies return 1.36 the highlights

    LSP > -3.35

    BP taken average odds > 4.81
    SP average odds were > 4.03
    BSP average odds > 4.5

    * the taken odds on betfair were the highest average today / all the picks dropped in price again on Betfair so that means we still have 100% success with picks trading lower!

  9. overall results > 3 days

    selections > 45
    winners > 10
    placed 1-3 > 30 (67%)

    average odds taken > 5.67
    total staked > 148pts
    total return > 141.84pts
    P/L > -6.16pts
    LSP > -1.3
    ROI > -4.2%

    SP avg odds > 5.01
    BSP avg odds > 6.18

    picks trading below BSP > 45/45 (100%)

  10. looking at the SP > 4 picks have been 9/1 or higher and 3 have placed so perhaps watching these could pay well for each way backers

    with BSP, 6 have started at a price of 11.0 or higher with all trading lower, 1 sub 2.0, 1 sub 3.0 and 1 sub 4.0 so plenty of trades there too

  11. DAY 4 >

    Kempton >
    700 al khan 2.98
    730 pahente 4.90
    800 alshan fajer 5.60
    830 gambolling den 6.80
    900 mr chocolate drop 10.50

    Wolves >
    230 shawkantgo 5.60
    305 colourbearer 12.00
    335 gabrial the duke 2.56
    410 yourinthewill 7.00
    445 x
    515 x
    550 big sylv 3.90

    Chepstow >
    210 enchanting smile 2.10
    240 lady bridget 4.00
    315 mauricetheathlete 5.60
    350 x
    420 x
    455 bobble boru 4.00
    530 kirkleigh 2.00

    15 selections, current Betfair Price shown (stakes as per plan)

    • DAY 4 Results >

      Kempton >
      al khan 2.98 2nd
      pahente 4.90 4th
      alshan fajer 5.60 3rd
      gambolling den 6.80 5th
      mr chocolate drop 10.50 5th

      Wolves >
      shawkantango 5.60 10th
      colourbearer 12.00 1s
      gabrial the duke 2.56 2nd
      yourinthewill 7.00 1st
      big sylv 3.90 3rd

      Chepstow >
      enchanting smile 2.10 3rd
      lady bridget 4.00 4th
      mauricetheathlete 5.60 2nd
      bobble boru 4.00 2nd
      kirkleigh 2.00 1st

      15 selections > 3 x winners, 4 x 2nd places, 3 x 3rds (10/15 placed 1-3)

      stakes > 47pts
      returns > 92.15pts
      p/l > 45.15pts

      LSP > +5 pts

      ROI > +96.1%

      average odds taken > 5.30
      average SP > 5.37
      average BSP > 6.12

      * BSP was again the best, taken prices on betfair were very similar to the actual SP

      * 3 winners wasn’t earth-shattering but a 10/1 and a 13/2 sure helped the excellent returns on the day > this is where the staking plan really kicks in as they were 5pt bets

      * every single pick again traded below it’s BSP with a couple of placed horses going very low again (1.31 and 1.64)

  12. overall results > 4 days

    selections > 60
    winners > 13 (21.7%)
    placed 1-3 > 40 (66.7%)

    average odds taken > 5.58
    total staked > 195pts
    total return > 233.99pts
    P/L > + 38.99pts

    LSP > + 4.7pts
    ROI > + 20%

    SP avg odds > 5.10
    BSP avg odds > 6.17

    picks trading below BSP > 60/60 (100%)

  13. Day 5 selections >

    kempton
    145 marilyn marqeussa 12.00
    220 robin hoods bay 3.55
    255 greylami 10.00
    x
    405 belgian bill 3.75
    435 yeeoow 3.10
    510 prophet’s pride 2.26

    carlisle
    200 rupert bear 5.60
    x
    310 nowurhurlin 4.80
    345 devotion to duty 10.00
    420 gwladys street 6.60
    455 quite the man 4.55
    530 hellesbelles 5.30

    haydock
    205 handy andy 5.40
    240 capellanus 18.00
    315 sydney paget 6.60
    350 noble legend 8.80
    425 oscar magic 4.60
    500 kandari 3.55
    535 salto chisco 2.36

    usual stakes, total today is 66pts

  14. DAY 5 RESULTS >

    kempton >

    marilyn marqeussa 12.00 4th
    robin hoods bay 3.55 4th
    greylami 10.00 6th
    belgian bill 3.75 2nd
    yeeoow 3.10 2nd
    prophet’s pride 2.26 1st

    carlisle>

    rupert bear 5.60 4th
    nowurhurlin 4.80 3rd
    devotion to duty 10.00 6th
    gwladys street 6.60 8th
    quite the man 4.55 1st
    hellesbelles 5.30 2nd

    haydock >

    handy andy 5.40 3rd
    capellanus 18.00 8th
    sydney paget 6.60 7th
    noble legend 8.80 1st
    oscar magic 4.60 1st
    (kandari NR)
    salto chisco 2.36 1st

    selections > 18
    winners > 5
    placed 1-3 > 10

    staked > 64pts
    returned > 72.27 (after betfair commission at 5%)
    profit > 8.27pts

    ROI > + 12.9%
    LSP > -0.39

    5 winners wasn’t too bad with noble legend coming in at a decent price; few poor efforts here and there although it was a risky day with some big fields/prices about

  15. Overall Results >

    5 days

    selections > 78
    winners > 18 (strike rate 23.1%)
    placed 1-3 > 50 (64%)

    staked > 259 pts
    returned > 322.37 pts
    BF comm > 16.12 pts
    net return > 306.25 pts
    net profit > 47.25 pts

    LSP > +9.27 pts

    ROI > + 18.24%

    average odds taken on BF > 5.80

    * average SP > 5.15 (-11.09%)
    ** BSP > 6.13 (+5.81%)

    ** if taking BSP, then returns are 82.44 pts profit, ROI of +30.1% which is pretty good

    > the staking plan is working well with 6 of the 18 wins being 5pt bets; I usually average around a 20% strike rate and this is with avoiding odds-on shots – I expect to pick some winners in the 6/1 or 8/1 area so that’s why this staking plan works well for me

  16. Average of almost 5/1 is pretty high but obviously slighty inflated with the occasional big price pick – very pleased with 23% strike rate though with these sort of prices, hence the profit!

    5 days gone and already 18% return on the prices taken – this could be 30% if you took the Betfair Starting Price

    Plenty of trades available too as 77/78 have traded below their BSP!

  17. DAY 6

    Market Rasen >

    155 watered silk 2.64
    230 cool baranca 4.40
    305 keeverfield 4.40
    340 x
    415 combustible kate 11.00
    445 diamond frontier 3.50
    520 keefes well 6.20

    Ripon >

    150 ventura mist 8.00
    220 two for two 6.00
    255 manyriverstocross 6.00
    330 availedspeaker 5.50
    405 voodoo prince 2.56
    440 the art of racing 2.64
    515 harbinger lass 5.40

    Sandown >

    130 counsel 5.70
    205 minella forfitness 3.40
    240 oiseau de nuit 9.20
    315 ektihaam 4.80
    350 on trend 40.00 each way
    425 carry on sydney 4.70
    455 forgotten hero 5.00
    530 charitable act 8.40

    Doncaster >

    510 karaka jack 4.10
    540 danfazi 6.20
    615 x
    645 ingleby symphony 5.00
    715 westwiththenight 5.70
    745 las verglas star 4.30
    815 estemaala 3.40

    > usual stakes so 96pts in total

  18. Day 6 Results >

    Market Rasen >

    watered silk 2.64 1st
    cool baranca 4.40 3rd
    keeverfield 4.40 4th
    combustible kate 11.00 2nd
    diamond frontier 3.50 1st
    keefes well 6.20 5th

    Ripon>

    ventura mist 8.00 3rd
    two for two 6.00 1st
    manyriverstocross 6.00 7th
    availedspeaker 5.50 5th
    voodoo prince 2.56 1st
    the art of racing 2.64 1st
    harbinger lass 5.40 3rd

    Sandown >

    counsel 5.70 5th
    minella forfitness 3.40 2nd
    oiseau de nuit 9.20 4th
    ektihaam 4.80 3rd
    on trend 40.00 8th
    carry on sydney 4.70 2nd
    forgotten hero 5.00 4th
    charitable act 8.40 2nd

    Doncaster >

    karaka jack 4.10 1st
    danfazi 6.20 3rd
    ingleby symphony 5.00 3rd
    westwiththenight 5.70 1st
    las verglas star 4.30 5th
    estemaala 3.40 6th

    Staked > 96pts
    Returned > 75.94pts
    P/L > -20.06pts

    Winners > 7/27 (26%)
    Placed 1-3 > 17 (63%)

    Average odds > 6.60 (price taken on Betfair when posting)
    LSP> +0.14
    ROI > -20.9%

    7 winners yesterday but I left out Quentin Collonges in the Gold Cup as I went for a longshot instead! (typical!) I backed QC separately (see Race Of The Day)

    Every single selection traded below its BSP bar the final pick Estemaala (26/27); Combustible Kate was very unlucky as off 11.0 it almost won but was pipped at the post (traded down to 1.59)

    So not a great day but not too much damage done – Sandown was tricky and no wins but plenty of stakes there (almost a third) although the LSP was still positive

  19. Overall Stats >

    105 races

    Staked > 355.00 pts
    Net return > 382.19pts
    Net profit > 27.19pts

    ROI > 7.66%
    LSP > +9.41pts (8.96% profit on 105 races)

    Winners > 25 (23.8%)
    Placed 1-3 > 67 (63.8%)

    Average Odds > 6.0 (5/1)

    5pt stakes (odds over 6.0) > 38
    these have returned an LSP of +15.6 and an ROI of +34.0%

    I use Betfair price when I post the bets, if using the BSP then the figures are as follows >

    Staked > 388 pts
    Net return > 434.92pts
    Net profit > 46.92pts

    ROI > 12.09%
    LSP > +18.04pts

    > this clearly shows the advantage of using BSP as the prices of my selections drift slightly which means better returns! Industry SP is a fraction lower than the BP (betfair price) I take

    > backing the 5pt selections only returns a very healthy 34% ROI so you could ignore the short odds picks and just go for the big payouts!

    > the strike rate is amazingly bang on what I expected as 24% or so is the target – I am very pleased with this as I pick 5/1 shots on average – hence the profit!

  20. here we go again >

    chester today

    210 limegrove 7.80
    245 rusty rocket 6.20
    320 correspondent 4.60
    350 pintrada 5.60
    420 x
    455 interior minister 5.20
    525 gabrial’s king 2.94

    newcastle

    240 spinatrix 13.50
    315 mashaari 14.00
    350 compton 11.50
    420 x
    450 whispering warrior 3.60
    520 swift cedar 3.65

    usual stakes

  21. lingfield >

    545 banadeer 2.00
    620 pharaoh jake 6.20
    655 saskia’s dream 8.20
    725 ceelo 3.35
    800 el libertador 6.80
    830 hello sailor 9.80
    900 harbinger lass 3.55

  22. time to get this ticking along again…

    day 7 results >

    selection / price / stake / position

    chester >
    limegrove 7.80 5.00 6th
    rusty rocket 6.20 5.00 1st
    correspondent 4.60 3.00 1st
    pintrada 5.60 4.00 5th
    interior minister 5.20 4.00 5th
    gabrial’s king 2.94 1.00 2nd

    newcastle >
    spinatrix 13.50 5.00 15th
    mashaari 14.00 5.00 14th
    compton 11.50 5.00 5th
    whispering warrior 3.60 2.00 1st
    swift cedar 3.65 2.00 1st

    windsor >
    spirea 4.90 3.00 8th
    clowance estate 2.88 1.00 3rd
    french navy 3.20 2.00 1st
    picabo 9.20 5.00 7th
    jubilant queen 4.80 3.00 2nd
    dance express 5.90 4.00 3rd

    lingfield >
    banadeer 2.00 1.00 1st
    pharaoh jake 6.20 5.00 4th
    saskia’s dream 8.20 5.00 4th
    ceelo 3.35 2.00 2nd
    el libertador 6.80 5.00 3rd
    hello sailor 9.80 5.00 14th
    harbinger lass 3.55 2.00 2nd

    total stakes > 84pts
    return > 64.32pts (betfair)
    p/l > -19.69pts
    LSP > -0.75

    selections > 24
    winners > 6 (25%)
    placed 1-3 > 13 (54%)

    average odds taken > 6.22
    average stake > 3.50
    average SP price > 5.28
    average BSP > 6.43

    Couple of nice winners at chester, 6 wins overall, plenty of places and 4 who didn’t win but who all traded sub 1.5 on betfair,
    23 of the 24 selections traded lower on betfair (6 were more than half their sp)

  23. thursday 12 sept (day 8)

    wolves >

    530 elizabeth coffee 10.50 BP 5.00pt stake
    600 major surprise 4.20 3.00
    630 balti’s sister 19.50 5.00
    700 gamgoom 3.75 2.00
    730 reginald claude 6.20 5.00
    800 methaaly 6.60 5.00
    830 little eli 5.50 4.00
    900 lean on pete 8.20 5.00

    epsom
    250 mime dance 2.92 1.00
    325 hipster 12.50 5.00
    400 toptempo 9.40 5.00
    435 pilates 4.00 3.00
    510 lucky di 4.20 3.00

  24. bit of a wipeout yesterday but always the way; you start again with a blog and get hammered! no worries, a few good days and it will be back in profit I hope!

    time / selection / price / result

    wolves >
    530 elizabeth coffee 10.5 3rd
    600 major surprise 4.2 3rd
    630 balti’s sister 19.5 6th
    700 gamgoom 3.75 2nd
    730 reginald claude 6.2 5th
    800 methaaly 6.6 6th
    830 little eli 5.5 2nd
    900 lean on pete 8.2 3rd

    epsom >
    250 mime dance 2.92 1st
    325 hipster 12.5 4th
    400 toptempo 9.4 2nd
    435 pilates 4 8th
    510 lucky di 4.2 5th

    13 selections
    1 winner, 7 placed
    staked > 51pts
    return > 2.77 net
    p/l > -48.23pts

    average odds taken > 7.5 (avg on BSP was 7.99)

    plenty of high prices so it was a bit of boom or bust, 12 of 13 traded lower with elizabeth coffee as low as 3.8 from 14.26 BSP the best, so plenty of good trading yet again although poor results from a win perspective

  25. october 13th

    goodwood
    200 freddy q 18.5 5.00
    230 concrete mac 9.2 5.00
    305 carthage 3.1 2.00
    340 royal trooper 13.5 5.00
    415 black caesar 5.3 4.00
    445 joe packet 9.2 5.00
    515 glorious protector 9.0 5.00
    545 tobacco road10.5 5.00

    ffos las
    215 midnight minx 2.64 1.00
    245 ring bo ree 7.8 5.00
    320 frontier vic 2.64 1.00
    355 sivola de sivola 2.34 1.00
    430 toubab 5.9 4.00
    500 captain moonman 7.8 5.00
    530 solstice son 3.3

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