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Pro Tour Cycling – Volta a Catalunya 2013 Betting Preview

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Valverde and Rodriguez will do battle on home roads in this week long race, generic while Wiggins seeks to repeat his Paris Nice exploits of later year. We will see riders take on some of the biggest climbs in Spain as riders seek to hone their form for the Giro just two months away or for the spring classics.

This week sees the return of the Garmin 3, mind the riders who got token 6 month bans as part of the coming out process of their past doping in the sport of cycling.  Bradley Wiggins comes out of training camp with a strong supporting squad including Uran, Lopez and Cataldo. SKy will look to control the race in their usual way why will the Spaniards  look to spring some attacks. Rujano who has also had some mixed form turns out for this race his first of season now he is with Vacansoleil.

Without a time trial for Wiggins to put time into rivals the defensive tactics will not work here and that makes this an interesting week, with so many stage races often decided in the race of truth, this one is decided in the hills. Many will be asking if Sam Sanchez can return to some sort of form he was pipped to this race last year by Albasini after stage 3 was null and voided.

Profiles can be found here. Stage 3 and 4 will be the key days in the saddle but other days could provide gaps. Carlos Betancur who now rides with Ag2r also turns up for this. Dan Martin could get help from a strong Garmin line up this time of year suits him and he is based around here.  Rodriguez who showed good form again in Tirreno pulling away on the steep finish has the help of a strong support squad including his right hand man Moreno. Machado can play a card for Radioshack but this is a step up with the big boys.

Weather may affect the high stages as this time of year can see many peaks covered in Snow so we would need a bit more luck than we have been having of late to avoid any detours.

Outright Betting: (prices 365 for guide)

J.Rodriguez 7/4 – The tlaented puncheur has been let down by a mixture of one bad days and a poor time trial in grand tours but their is no doubting his talent in being able to handle the hardest of climbs and put in the hardest of digs and breaking others. He won this back in 2010 but did not race it in the two years since. Hes been extremely good over past 3 years and last year was a huge season winning a classic and podium on two grand tours. This year he has taken a stage in Oman and Tirreno over cyclings best talents. he was 4th and 5th in the overall of both those races.

A.Valverde 11/4  –  A winner of the race back in 2009. He pulled out with health issues last year so did not finish the race But had a 3rd from Paris Nice coming into it.  This year he has 3 stage wins to his name and won an overall too in Spain already.  He also 3rd in Murcia. He even returned to racing in Italy to maintain his level for this.

R.Uran 6/1 – Looks like Wiggins will let the team focus on Uran as the profile suits the columbian better than it does the tour de france champion. Uran was 5th in this last year he can have his off days his support rider Cataldo got himself a 9th here so should offer some good support.

Other Contenders: Scarponi (12/1) has one off day last week in Tirreno having an issue and getting gapped, he rode a very strong time trial and hes won here before too.  But despite that showing their is still a lack of cutting edge to his riding so far this season. Quintana (11/1) missed a gap and it lost him a key minute on gc. Put in a pretty strong time trial and otherwise looked strong all week. Has a big win in coming soon.  Last years 3rd Van Den Broeck has been scarcely seen this so far this year. In the smaller races he  had a 5th overall and a 2nd in Andalucia just off Valverde, but it woudl be no suprise to see him going strong again.  Chris Horner (16/1)  was 3rd here two years back and despite his age does not seem to be getting any less keen to keep racing.  After a great 2010 his level has dropped off and Tirreno was his first race in which he got a 6th overall.

Anton (22/1) 11th in 2010,  was only 25th in 2011 and he tends be one who does not hold his form for too long its very early yet for him, he was 6th in select group in Murica but will need show more. Dan Martin (40/1) has twice came second here in 2011 and 2009 but well done in tirreno buidling up to this but that did not stop him before from doing well. Nocentini at 125/1 must not be discounted but he had one bad bad day in Italy last week when looking like he might be on form. Niemiec at 250/1 while he might not win could push here for a top 10.

The level of talent this week is great and im hoping for a good week of racing with the big climbs left in.

Bets:

Valverde has the winning bug as he looks to regain this race.

1pt Valverde 11/4 bet365

.1pts Quintana 11/1 bet365

.1pt J.Van Den Broeck 14/1 bet365 (16/1 betvictor)

Valverde is a strong fancy to take overall for me here.

Main matchbets:

Van Den Broeck will want to improve on 3rd last year

3pt J.Van Den Broeck to beat C.Horner  21/10 hills

3pts Niemiec to beat Kiserlovski  9/10 bet365

4pts D.Navarro to beat Roche 17/20 bet365

5pts T.Machado to beat D.Cataldo evens bet365

Other Bets:

1pt Valverde to beat J.Rodriguez 7/5 bet365

1pt Scarponi to beat Uran  5/4 hills

2pts D.Moreno to beat Menchov 2.37 pinnacle

1pt Wiggins to beat Hesjedal 7/10 bet365

2pt D.Martin to beat Pozzoviov 2.13 pinnacle

 

 

Other matchbets: (added 10.30am)

2pts Navarro to beat Jeannesson 3/4 betvictor

1pt Van Den Broeck to beat Menchov 4/7 betvictor

4pts Martin to beat Roche 10/11 betvictor

3pts Machado to beat Fugslang 4/5 betvictor

1pt Nocentini to beat Kiserlovski 17/20 betvictor

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

8 Comments

  1. Stage 1 bets:

    On first look davis is their for the taking really, both Meersman and Dumoulin are closely matched this season and Simon has not been far behind either of them. Interest for most part for me will go on Guardini he is coming off win in langkawi and also his record from 6 out of the8 stages read, 3,2,2,6,1,4. On each of those days he held davis, the stage looks flat enough for him to make finish.

    .5pt Guardini 14/1 various
    .2ptSimon 14/1 hills
    .2pt Meersmann 8/1 bet365
    .2pt DUmoulin 12/1 paddys
    .1pt Fenn 33/1 various

    2pt Dumoulin to beat Davis evens bet365, hills, pinnacle
    3pt Guardini to beat fenn 2.36 pinnacle
    1pt J.Van Den Broeck to beat Horner 4/5 bet365
    1pt Betancur to beat Brambilla 7/5 bet365
    3pt Meersmann to beat Simon 2.55pinnacle

  2. Stage 2 bets:

    Its even flatter today we wont get hte late spilt, and meersmann won anyway which was good for us

    To win Stage 2:
    1pt Guardini 3.26 pinnacle
    .25pts A Feen 7.7 pinnacle
    ,1pt J.Simon 33/1 bet365

    Matchbets:
    1pt Kreder to beat Meersmann 3.15 pinnacle
    4pts Koldo Fernandez to beat Cardoso 2.08 pinnacle
    2pts Koldo F to beat Davis 17/20 sportingbet
    1pJeanneson to beat Horner 2.1 pinnacle
    4pts Simon to beat Parisien 1.71 pinnacle
    2pts Dumoulin to beat Wyss 4/6 hills

  3. Stage 3 bets:

    THis will be a good stage if its allowed play out, like a fine play with all the actors set but the script yet to be written.

    http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1174314&postcount=1

    The final climb 12.1km its no easy climb with some steep pitches only the best will hang on for this.

    Im hoping we see as good as a full stage tommorow

    .5pt JRodriguez to win stage 9/4 skybet
    .4pts Valverde to win stage 4.1 pinnacle
    Scarpoin to win 12/1 bet365

    Matchbets:
    1pt D,Martin to beat Wiggins 2.28 pinnacle
    2pt Scarponi to beat Wiggins 17/20 sportingbet
    1pt Quintana to beat Van Den Broeck evens bet365
    2pts Niemiec to beat Moreno 11/10 hills
    1p Betancur to beat Nocentini 13/10 bet365
    1pt Lopez to beat cataldo 2.06 pinnacle
    2pt Pinot to beat RUjano evens hills
    1pt De Gendt to beat FUgslang 2.76 pinnacle
    1pt Nocentini to beat Pozzovivo 7/5 sportingbet
    3pt Pinot to beat Santaromita 1/2 sportingbet
    3pts Roche to beat Jeanesson 1.65 pinnacle

  4. Stage 4:

    It should be another great test and grateful we should be that the snow managed to stay away.

    http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1175567&postcount=1

    .5pt Valverde 3.5 pinnacle

    Matchbets:
    1.5pts Quintana to beat Wiggins 2.04 pinnacle
    1pt Pinot to beat Scarponi 4/5 bet365
    3pts Niemiec to beat Uran 19/20 sportingbet
    1pt Pozzovivo to beat Stetina 11/10 bet365
    1pt Navarro to beat Van den broeck 2.38 pinnacle
    1pt Morabito to beat Machado 1.87 pinnacle
    2pt Fugslang to beat Danielson 13/10 bet365
    2pt Fugslang to beat Martin 13/10 bet365
    2pt Betancour to beat MarcosGarcia 17/20 bet365 (1.86 pinnacle)
    1pt Navarro Garcia to beat Danielson 17/20 sportingbet

  5. Stage 5:

    3pt Fenn to beat Koldo Fernandez evens hills , sportingbet
    1pt Wiggins to beat Ruijgh 17/20 sportingbet
    2pt DUmoulin to beat Wyss 17/20 sportingbet
    1pt SImon to beat cardoso 17/20 sportingbet

    2pts Meersmann not to win 1.18 pinnacle

  6. Stage 6:
    In tribute to the late tondo this stage finishes in his homeland. Their will be a few climbs with a downhill run into the finish.

    The GC battle is really between ROdriguez and Martin now both riders have strong support, and the sprint points are in very interesting places and one of them may be contested. Garmin will be happy to let anyone well down on GC go in a break and just keep them within a few minutes.

    1pt Simon to beat Meersmann 2.66 pinnacle
    2pt Scarponi to beat Wiggins 2.15 pinnacle
    3pts QUintana to beat Anton 1.813 pinnacle
    1pt Uran to beat Moreno 2.66
    1pt Parisien to beat Wyss 2.31 pinnacle

  7. Stage 7:

    This will see the riders enter barcalona and do some repeats of the alt de montjuic which is not steep enough in my view to cause a riot.
    Stage profile: http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-03/Volta-Ciclista-a-Catalunya-Stage-7-1363456549.jpg

    Bets
    Outright
    4pts Martin to beat J.Rodriguez 3/4 betvictor
    5pts QUintana to beat Wiggins 4/9 betvictor
    1pt Pinot to beat Van Den Broeck 1/2 betvictor.

    To win stage;
    .25pts Meersman 25/1 bet365
    .1pt Simon 100/1 paddys

    2pt Martin to beat QUintana 17/20 bet365
    2pt Martin to beat J.Rodriguez 3.19 pinnacle
    2pt Scarponi to beat Wiggins 11/10 hills

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