After last weeks difficult week the bookies seem to have overreacted on some of the prices this week. Hopefully we can find some winners among the mistakes.
Perpignan v Munster
Looking at Perpignan’s home record i don’t know how probably the poorest Munster side in the last 10 years can be favourites. Perpignan have won 22 of thir last 23 in Europe at home and although Munster were the team to beat them it was a few years ago and i believe this is an overreaction to the heavy defeat last week. The Stade Aime Gal is as hostile and intimidating as Thomond park andMunster will be happy with a bonus point here. Perpignan have almost a new back row and half back pairing while Munster will be without inspirational Conor Murphy. This is a significant change to last week and there is a good 25-30 pt swing at least on the respective home and away form of the 2. Remember Treviso, The Dragons, Worcester and Exeter have all beat Perpignan at home in recent years
Perpignan win @2.2 or win by 1-12 @ 2.88
Connacht v Toulouse
Again a huge overreaction to the defeat last week on home soil for Toulouse. Changes have been made for Toulouse with internationals packing the side while Connacht have had flu in the camp this week. However a sold out Sportsground with rain and wind is not going to suit the game Toulouse want to play and play into Connacht’s hands. Dan Parks at 10 will play the corners and the Connacht side will be massively up for completing the double. Only Toulouse in recent years have beaten Connacht by more than the+14 some firms are quoting and this looks a steal to me. Toulouse have only beaten 3 sides by more than 14 in the last 10 years,which were Dragons, Glasgow and Connacht and with the massive improvement in Connacht in the last year I can’t take -14 on Toulouse.
Connacht +14 @1.91 is the safest and advised but for a little more profit you can take Toulouse to win by 1-12 @ 2.75
Leinster v Northampton looks a trap to fall into. Can the Saints play that bad again and can Leinster play that well again. Remember what happened last year with Ulster embarassing Northampton at Franklins Gardens and then losing at home the following week.
Nothing else interests in the Heineken Cup on Saturday with too many variables to take into account on the bigger handicaps.
In the Amlin Newcastle should be able to beat the -9 in Italy v Calvisano and Bath could score more than 55 v Mogliano, while Bayonne really don’t travel well enough to score more than 40 in Viadana. However all of these will be no bets for me with better opportunities on offer elsewhere.