There are a number of top quality races from Today’s Horse Racing Meetings and a couple of races I shall cover today by looking at the ten year trends, the races are the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Fighting Fifth Hurdle
2.05 Newcastle – Fighting Fifth Hurdle
We have just the eight runners for this year’s feature at Newcastle Racecourse; this race was introduced back in 1969 and has been run ever since apart from in 1993. Countrywide Flame won the race last year and was the first 4yo winner since Out of the Gloom who won it back in 1985. The year Nicky Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours is the current odds-on favourite with Melodic Rendezvous the next best.
The winners over the past ten years have been spread out between the ages of 4 & 9 but it is the 5yo runners which really stand out, from just 17 runners 5 of those have gone on to success with an additional 4 going on to place and we only have two 5yo entrants this year in Duke Of Navan and Grumeti.
Other factors are that all previous ten winners had finished in the first two last time out and nine of them had won either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over hurdles and only the already mentioned first two in the market comply with those factors.
Eight of the last ten were in the second or third season as hurdlers and all of the last seven held an official rating of 150+ over hurdles and against the front two in the market come out on this along with Grumeti.
So at the moment there has been four runners mentioned all receiving two positives but the deciding factor has to be the performance in this race of the runner who was best finished in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and that would be My Tent Or Yours, those runner best placed in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a record of 11312 in this race.
So not the most original selection with the runner being odds-on but going through the trends then the selection has to be MY TENT OR YOURS (8/11).
3.00 Newbury – Hennessy Gold Cup
21 runners will line up for this year’s Hennessy Gold Cup at the Newbury Racecourse, a race which was introduced back in 1957 and this race has been won by the likes of Arkle and Denman who both achieved success twice, legendary trainer Fulke Walwyn won this race an incredible 7 times.
Looking at the ages of the previous winners the older runners have struggled, no winner from 21 for runners aged 10yo+ which does not bode well for Imperial Commander who will be looking to become the 9th runner to win both the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Hennessy Gold Cup, the favour seems to be for runners aged 6yo or 7yo who have notched up 8 wins over the past 10.
Official ratings would point towards those who hold a rating of 145 or more as they have produced the last eight winners and also those carrying 11-0 or more. Cape Tribulation runs off top weight today and those running off top weight have a decent record, from the last ten, three have gone on to victory and an additional three have place so that is 60% of the last ten top weighted have finished in the placing’s.
You need a winner with stamina and that has been proving over the year with nine of the last ten winners going in to the race having previously won over 3m1f or further and also on another note, five RSA Chase winners have come here over the past ten years and three of those have gone on to success.
I think with everything we have, there are two runners that stand out on the trend side of things for the Hennessy Gold Cup, the RSA Chase winner LORD WINDERMERE (8/1) and also it may be worth playing the top weight CAPE TRIBULATION (33/1).
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