Scottish Grand National Trends 2014
The Aintree Grand National Trends did not go to plan, both Long Run and Teaforthree fell during the race whilst Mr Moonshine who was up with the pace throughout the race faded late on and dropped back to finish fifteenth.
I did look at the trends for the race but only going to five years and from a short-list of seven runners the winner was on there so I am going to try that theory for this year’s Scottish Grand National, focus on the last five years only to see what it throws up, also I would like to note that all data is based on UK and IRE runs only.
For more information on the Scottish Grand National and for tickets please visit the Ayr Racecourse website.
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – Last 5 Winners
|2013||Godsmejudge||12.00||7||11-3||139||King, A||Hutchinson, Wayne|
|2012||Merigo||7.50||11||10-2||134||Parker, A||Murphy, Timmy|
|2011||Beshabar||7.50||9||10-4||146||Vaughan, Tim||Johnson, Richard|
|2010||Merigo||18.00||9||10-0||127||Parker, A||Murphy, Timmy|
|2009||Hello Bud||12.00||11||10-9||133||Twiston-Davies, N A||Brennan, P J|
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – Horse Data
The last five winners have been aged 7, 9, 9, 11 & 11 and the placings have been well spread out apart from one age which over the past five years has not been great! There has been 25 eight year old runners in the past five year and they have not produced a win but more importantly they have produced just one place so whilst everything else posts a place strike rate of 12.50%+ the eight year old runners are just 4%!
Runners priced bigger than 40/1 have not produced a place from 19 runners and it is worth highlight those who go off 12/1, in the past five years they have a 45% place strike rate (5-11).
Because of Tidal Bay’s entry the weights are pretty much messed up! The majority of the field are carrying under ten stone so looking at weights would be pointless, instead I am going to look at official ratings and these show that all winners and places were holding marks between 127 & 149.
All 5 winners and 18 or the 20 places have been filled by either IRE or FR breed runners.
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – Last Time Out
You want to look at runners who are stepping up in class, those running in the same class or dropping are 0-25 and have only produced 2 places, all five winners have come from runners who ran in either a class 2 or 3 last time out and these have also produced 15 of the places so that seems your safe bet.
There does not seem too much in the switch in distance although it may be worth highlighting those who ran over 3m2f last time out has these are 4-7 (57%) in the place market.
You do not want a runner coming into the race off a long break, those without a run in 46+ days have produced just 1 place from 20 runners whilst those with breaks of 31-45 days have produced 4 winners and 13 places so that seems the most positive factor in this section.
You need to focus on runners who finished in the first 8 last time out or who pulled up, avoid those who fell or unseated and you want to go with a runner who had produced a top 3 finish within their last 3 starts.
Look at runners who ran in fields of no more than 16 last time out, those in bigger fields have produced just 2 places from 36 runners, those coming here having run in the Aintree GN last time out are 0-5.
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – Horse Form
All five winners came here having run twice in the last 90 days and that factor has also produced an additional 5 places and you want a runner with 3+ runs that season, course form does not seem important but previous runs on the ground is advisable, look at those with 2+ runs on the ground.
Look for runners with a previous start at a flat (Surface) track and those with 8+ starts at tracks described as Galloping and also look for runners with 5+ starts at left handed tracks.
Look for runners who made their debut over a trip of at least 2m (110y) because those over shorter trips are 0-44 with only 2 places and also look for debuts in class 5 or better.
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – Other Factors
These are not as important as the above but worth noting. Trainers with 6+ runner at Ayr on the day are 0-12 without a single place, Jockeys who have gone 11+ rides without a win are 0-41 and produced just 3 places. The headgear numbers are, those wearing cheekpieces 21-0-1 and those in blinkers 10-0-2.
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – Negatives
- Avoid 8yo Runners (25-0-1)
- Avoid those priced 50/1 or bigger (19-0-0)
- Avoid those who ran in 17+ fields LTO (36-0-2)
- UK Debut was over 2m or shorter (44-0-2)
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – Positives
- Runners with OR of 127-149 (109-5-20)
- Either IRE or FR Breed runners (98-5-18)
- Ran in Class 2-3 LTO or OGB (74-5-15)
- Off a break of 31-45 days (56-4-13)
- Finished in first 8 LTO or PU (105-5-20)
- Produced a top 3 finish in last 3 (98-4-16)
- Ran twice in the past 90 Days (50-5-10)
- Ran 3+ times this season (111-5-19)
- Ran 2+ times on the ground (115-5-19)
- Ran at a Flat (Surface) track (111-5-19)
- Made 8+ starts at Galloping tracks (104-5-19)
- Made 5+ starts at left handed tracks (119-5-20)
- Debut was in class 5 or better (73-4-16)
Scottish Grand National Trends 2014 – The Selection
Based on all the figures above, going through the current field there is only one runner that fits everything mentioned above and that is 40/1 shot Mister Marker so that runner will be the trend selection.