3.15 Doncaster – Sky Bet Chase Trends 2014
I have already done a post for the trends on the Argento Chase and now it is time to move on to the much more trickier Sky Bet Chase Trends which is a handicap chase run at Doncaster over three miles, it used to be known as the The Great Yorkshire Chase. We have fifteen runners this year which includes plenty of graded winners with the likes of Grand National winner Auroras Encore, the strong favourite Unioniste and Roberto Goldback.
I have gone about the trends slightly different than the Argento Chase ones as in I have given each runner a rating for each area and then looked at the overall numbers.
This is how I have rated the Sky Bet Chase Trends
The first factor that I looked at was the runners Age and they have been spread out over the years with winners ranging from 6yo right up to 11yo and whilst the older runners have not recorded a win there has only been seven runners elder than 11yo that have taken part. The one stand out is 7yo runners who have produced 3 winners from just 13 runners for a LSP of +16.00 and 46% of those 13 have also gone on to place.
In the odds section you need to look at those 20/1 or shorter, there has not been a single winner bigger than 20/1 from 54 runners and only 6 of those have gone on to place, as you would expect the shorter priced runners have done well, those 4/1 or shorter have produced 3 winner from 11 runners and those 6/1 or shorter are 6-28.
Market position pretty much goes with odds, the first three in the market have a record of 8-47 although those 8th and 9th which have produced one win apiece are both showing profits.
Weights is another section which does not really give you too many pointers! We have had winners off as low as 10-0 and as high as 11-11. Weight off 10-12, 11-2 & 11-10 have produced two winners apiece.
Unioniste with his rating of 153 is the highest rating from the results which I have access to, the previous highest is 151 and that runner went on to success at 12/1, winners have also come from as low at 115. Ratings of 118 and 132 are the only ones which have produced multiple winners.
I know a lot of people don’t take notice of the Days Since Run factors but I personally believe that these are great for working with, for this race those returning within 15 days have not produced a winner and only 1 place from 17 runners, those 61+ day break have produced just 1 winner from 30. All the other winners have come from 16-60 day breaks and are fairly spread out although 46-60 days have produced 3 winners.
Next up is what the runner did last time out, I was quite surprised to see that previous winners did not have a great record here, 39 runners have come into this race having won last time out but only two of those have gone on to success and show a LSP of -21.00, those who finished 2nd have come here to win 3 but those who finished 3rd are currently 0-21. All winners have either come from runners who finished in the first 7 last time or those who fell or unseated their rider but those who pulled up are 0-14.
Now I have three sections for movement, the first is movement in their official rating since their last run, all winners have come from runner who are down no further than 4lbs and no higher than 7lbs, those 8lb+ have a record of 0-24, those up 6lb-7lb are 3-13 for an LSP of +10.50.
Class movement does not really reveal too much, those running in a Grade 2 last time out are 0-10 and those who ran in Listed race last time out have produced 4 winners.
The final section is movement in trip and again there is not too much in this, those up 4f or more are 1-25 and those down 4f or more are 1-14, two winners have come from those who ran over 3m last time out, those dropping 2.5f to 3f have produced three winners and those up 3f to 3.5f have also produced three winners.
Using the Sky Bet Chase Trends we now have a rating for each runner in each section the one which comes out on top is The Druids Nephew with Time For Rupert and Unioniste the next best.