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Tirreno Adriatico 2015 Cycling Preview

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Tirreno Adriatico 2015 Cycling Preview

Tirreno Adriatico gets under way on Wednesday but without Froome so the challenge to Contador is weakened here this week as he seeks to carve out one big year in 2015. Its a race that has taken over from Paris Nice as the jewel in the early season crown, in my view both have there place and they offer contrasting tests for riders.

A prologue opens the race changed from a team time trial. Its a simple 5.4km test. It has 5 90 degree turns and two other easier bends to navigate. Stage 2 is pretty flat. Stage 3 is an interested day where some could lose time if not careful. Several laps of an up hill finish gives the riders a great view of what is to come. Stage 4 is more testing again, Two late climbs before a downhill finish should make an interesting race. Stage 5 is the mountain top finish that could win this race. The day contains quiet a bit of climbing before the final test. 1,100m of climbing over just under 15km so a 6-7% climb. Stage 6 has all its climbing early doors before a fairly flat run in. Stage 7 is a short time trial of 10km, its much quicker with one u turn and then two late turns.

All in all the route looks a little donned down from some of the crazy stuff thrown in previously, its likely dominating on the key mountain day is enough if you can put in a solid time trial to limit any time loss. I will list for me possible contenders before looking at the prices. For this race a good time trial will be useful with two tts totally over 15km and some power own, just one proper climbing day means good all round racing becomes a factor.

Contador, Nibali, Uran, Pinot, Niemiec, Van Den Broeck, Monfort, Quintana, J.Moreno, Cummings,  Meintjes,  Hesjedal, Formolo,  Rodriguez, Ten Dam, Konig, Nieve, Mollema.

On the sprinter front watch out for Mezgec who has the Kittel sprint train lined out for him this week.The time trial puts me of backing Formolo, Rodriguez or Quintana in there current form. I am not sure it suits Pinot or Niemiec either with both time trials so flat and unlikely to dominate the climbing. Nieve is also a little weak in that test.

In the absence of Froome I am going place a little faith in Konig to do well. Uran looks a little short as he has not always delivered this far in advance, Nibali is slowly progressing but at 18s I just can’t not have a sneak. I considered Mollema but again I am always reminding of the  Bianchi time trial curse. Meintjes again is on my list this guy is a real talent and its not far off him bagging a big win. I had backed Contador at evens but the best price 7/10 with hills is just about right now and not worth investment.

Tirreno Adriatico contenders play for the best prize in cycling

Tirreno Adriatico Outright:

.25pts Leopold Konig 66/1 various

.4pts Vincenzo Nibali 18/1 paddys

.1pt Louis Meintjes 300/1 betvic

Tirreno Adriatico Match Bets:

Pinnacle have yet to release prices so they might be better for Niemiec and Mollema so I may top up. Mollema has had a little set backs this season while Meintjes and Formol are two up and coming riders but Formolo won’t match him in a tt.

1pt Niemiec to beat Mollema  6/5 bet365, sportingbet

2pts Meintjes to beat Formolo 8/11 bet365 (1.72 sportinget)

4pts J.Moreno to beat V.Kiriyenka 5/6 paddys

4pts Cummings to beat Westra 8/11 paddys

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

7 Comments

  1. Prologue:
    This is a very short test, some very good tt riders will find this a little short.

    1pt M.Hepburn 22/1 paddys
    .1pt Javier Moreno 50/1 paddys
    .2pts Bennati 25/1 bet365
    .1pt Gaudin 100/1 bet365

    2pts Hepburn to beat Sergent 6/4 paddys
    1pt Bennati to beat Sagan 13/8 bet365
    1.5pts Kiriyenka to beat Grivko evens ladbrokes, bet365

  2. Stage 2:

    The narrow match bet win by Hepburn left us with just a small loss in the end, PN was very good to us however. Today is for all sprinters. First sprint beat time to catch out Cav

    .75pts Viviani 9/2 paddys
    .5pts Megec 16/1 betvic

    1.5pts Navardauskas to beat Cort Nielsen 4/5 bet365
    1pt Mezgec to beat Sagan 6/5 paddys
    2.5pts Mezgec to beat Peluchhi 11/10 ladbrokes

  3. Stage 2: (confirmed this is stage 2)

    A big crash today left lots of chaos it took out any chance of Viviani competing. Stage is a little hilly but it finishes with the same laps so plenty time to read it or the riders. Final km is uphill with one steep ramp early on. Overall its 5%. Stybar could double up from the weekend but 12/1 means I wont go too mad. Pozzatto is knocking on the door he has a win in him soon 40/1 is worth chancing he would contest these back in his day. Last but not least is an up and comer in Cort who at 50/1 I will chance.

    .4pts Stybar 12/1 paddys
    .25pts Pozzatto 40/1 betvic
    .3pts Magnus Cort 50/1 paddys

    1.5pts Pozzatto to beat Lutsenko 1.84 pinnacle
    3pts Nocentini to beat Arredondo 1.73 pinnacle
    3pts MAgnus Cort to beat Navardauskas 17/20 hills
    1.5pts Stybar to beat Van Avarmaet 1.83 pinnacle

  4. Stage 4:
    So it is stage 4 now well thats confusing. This stage looks more testing than day before and a proper medium mountain day. The downhill finish brings in a few contenders. 226km is going be a hell of a test this early in the season.
    ,
    A big day is ahead tomorrow but expect those not expecting much tomorrow to strike here.The last climb has some ramps but the downhill is quiet long. There is a very short uphill at the finish. Descent is quiet wide with few bends so it could get very interesting.
    .

    Stage 4 winner:

    .75pts Rigoberto Uran 12/1 ladbrokes
    .5pts Nocentini 100/1 betvic
    .3pts W.Poels 66/1 betvic
    ,
    Stage match bets::

    2pt Formolo to beat A.Yates 5/6 bet365
    2pts Mollema to beat Rodriguez 5/6 bet365
    3pts Nocentini to beat Arredndo 5/6 bet365
    1.5pts Nibali to beat Quintana 8/11 bet365

  5. Stage 5:
    ,
    Well first off Saturday was something else for this blog, head over to the Paris Nice blog for the cross bar hit on that one. In Tirreno we had 3 tips going into the race. They came 2nd,5th,1st. Poels was brilliant breaking out of the pack and never caught. 66/1 winner landed for the blog. Sky have plenty help here and Poels worked no harder than anyone else and has the time now.
    ,
    Outright:
    ,
    .5pts e/w W.Poels 10/1 ladbrokes (1/4 3places)
    ,
    Weather is taking a turn for the worse so the stage is in doubt.with its mountain top finish i WOULD EXPECT ITS NOT RIDDEN IN FULL. The final climb is 16.1 km towards the top of Terminillo an average gradient of 7.3 %. With Snow about and cold temps how far they go is in doubt.
    ,
    Three value picks from the pack especially if the climb chances it takes away from Contador. Uran is my favourite of Contadors rivals to out fox him.
    ,
    .15pts Nocentini 66/1 ladbrokes
    .15pts Niemiec 80/1 ladbrokes
    .15pts Vuillermoz 100/1 ladbrokes
    .55pts Uran 14/1 hills
    ,
    2pts Vuiellermoz to beat Reichenbach 4/5 bet365 (Pinnacle)
    1.5pts Nocentini to beat Caruso 2.28 pinnacle
    2pts Niemiec to beat VD Broeck 10/11 ladbrokes
    1.5pts Kreuziger to beat Pozzovivo 2.47 pinnacle
    3pts Pinot to beat Nieve 1.71 pinnacle
    1.5pts Pinot to beat Pozzovivo 4/5 ladbrokes

  6. Stage 6:

    Poels was a fail still a lot for him to learn to cope with the big names of the World Tour. Cavendish is hard to beat but gone with two wildcards on this one.

    .2pts M.Cort 66/1 betvic
    .2pts R.Navardauskas 50/1 betvic
    .1pt Ciolek 150/1 paddys, sportingbet

    1pt Debusschere to beat Bennett 11/10 bet365
    1pt Debusscheere to Porsev 11/10 paddys

  7. Stage 7:
    We are knocking the door with regularity with the long shots. With CIolek 2nd and Cort 4th while Navardauskas took a top 10, a close but not enough moment. The match bet won nicely Debussscheere top 3 on the day.

    Time trial this time and its a bit longer than the earlier test. A 10km power test. This course follows simliar to the past 2 yrs so plenty to go on in terms of likely winners. Malori is defending his win in this last year but he had a norrowq win over the shorter test and at evens he aint for me. Both years he has been 6 seconds quicker than Cancellara. Bodnar and CUmmings are both tempting at much bigger odds. Bodar was just a second off in Qatar from Cancellara in a simliar test. This longer test might help Brandle a bit more and he looked strong in the opener 40/1 is good enough to get involved.

    Keeping stakes low for now may top up little on Bodnar and Bradly. Castroviejo looks too big at 150/1 to try upset his team mate

    .2pts Bodnar 25/1 sportingbet. paddy power
    .2pts M.Brandle 40/1 sportingbet
    .1pt J.Castroviejo 150/1 paddys

    1ptCancellara to beat Malori 13/8 bet365
    1pt Bodnar to beat CUmmings 5/6 bet365
    1pt Contador to beat Quintana 4/6 bet365
    1.5pts Navardauskas to beat Boassen Hagen 5/6 bet365
    1pt Navardauskas to beat Oss 8/11 ladbrokes
    1pt Pinot to beat Mollema 4/7 bet365

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