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Tour Down Under 2015 Cycling Preview

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Tour Down Under 2015 Cycling Preview

Tour Down Under 2015 brings in the new season of cycling racing from Adelaide and I will quickly preview the race that gets the season under way. 6 stages from the 20th of January will be hotly contested with home born riders often setting it as a key target to shine. With 4 of the last 6 winners coming from Australia its a key place to start when looking for the likely winner of this race.

This year sees a little extra climbing so that may create just a little more of a time gap. That stage 3 changes sees a short steep pitch just before the finish line hits. A win on that day could go huge way to an overall win. Stage 5 has the usual battle on Willunga Hill to contend with.

Simon Gerrans a three time winner will not be at the start line after a crash has set back the start of his season. BMC line up for this one with Cadel Evans who is going for one last moment in the sun before he retires as the European season begins. But watch for his fellow country men the super talented Flakemore and the some what proven Dennis. Dennis was 5th back in 2012 so he can get stuck into this. Orica go all Australian bar Impey who many feel is there man for the job. Meyer is also on the team and was the 2011 champion, the route isn’t quiet the same as 2012 saw some proper climbing.

Giant Alpecin has two of note in both Dumoulin and Craddock. Craddock eeds to show the talent he truely did not in 2014 meanwhile Dumoulin broke out for a huge 2014 and is among the elite time trial men the race may be just beyond him. Sky send a pretty good team around Porte who we know for a fact is primed for a big 2015 after 2014 let him down big time. Thomas was 3rd in 2013 so also could go well but I see him easing off for later in year. Porte was a 4th last year and not far off so expect him to go well again.

De Gendt with Lotto now has lots to prove to bring anything of his old form.  Haas is probably the man I would watch for riding for Cannondale and it would be nice to see some life in Moser again. Trek have sent an interesting team who probably won’t challenge GC but may bring a bit of x factor to it all. Tinkoff have sent Rodgers who I am not so sure suits this style of race despite the fact he was fantastic from his enforced break last year. He was 4th in 2012 and a winner back in his younger days. A2gr have Pozzovivo who looks highly interesting.  He is a lot better than he gets credit for on shorter climbs but its still big ask to beat the guys with real big kicks. Will Sanchez see old memories as he returns here with Astana,  he was a winner way back in 2005.

Bouet was 15th last year and now returns with quickstep I still am not sure about his talents and if he could improve on that. Lastly it be nice to see the talented Durasek come good for Lampre this week there have been glimpses of his fine talents in 2014.

Tour Down Under 2015 Suggested Bets:

2.5pts Richie Porte 7/4 bet victor

.3pts Mike Rodgers 33/1 boylesports

Porte can win his home race of Tour Down Under

Tour Down Under 2015 Suggested Match Bets:

Porte and Rogers go along with my outright bets and quiet fancy they represent value in these match bets. Durasek is one who caught my eye and I am happy in that match bet to take him at touch above evens.

3pts Porte to beat Evans 1/2 hills

1.5pts Rogers to beat Machado 5/4 bet365

1pts Durasek to beat Pantano 2.14 pinnacle

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

6 Comments

  1. Stage 1:
    Nothing major for me here not sure what make of it and its early season days will there be enough to prevent Kittel? Two very small bets on the talented Impey and Meersman who can survive the harder parcours with relative ease.

    .25pts Meersmann 18/1 paddy power
    .2pts Impey 25/1 betvictor

    1.5pts Izagirre to beat Evans 2.33 pinnacle

  2. Stage 2:
    It doesn’t look on for a simple sprinter it will take bit more to win and the stage doesn’t look far off the Ulissi win of last year. Both my picks from last night are hotly fancied today off the top10s of stage 1. I have both Meersmann and Impey closely matched so there is a little value in Impey for this one for the home team.

    .3pts Daryl Impey 8/1 bet36
    .2pts Tom Dumoulin 33/1 paddy power
    .1pt LL Sanchez 66/1 skybet

    1pt Haas to beat Evans 2.11 pinnacle
    1pt Rogers to beat Machado 1.76 pinnacle

  3. Stage 3:
    ,
    Stage 2 what can I say very close but no cigar what so ever. All 3 tips for stage victory were heavily involved. I have not watched either but it seems Tom is decent shape and of course Impey looks spot on. Stage 3 is going be another battle with very little in it.
    ,
    Stage 3 is a change with a new finish for the TDU, Its been notable how strong Movistar have been and Lobato will came to the big stage, the TDU gets some bad press from the more fickle fans but it has its place for a big market and to open the season and a great way to get a World Tour win on the CV for riders going there profile.
    ,
    By all accounts stage 3 has more to it than stage 2 so expect a smaller group at the finish (48 today) Its a bumpy day in saddle but the finish is much more testing on day 3. (image of finish http://i.imgur.com/mBrAR65.jpg ) 1.2km at around 9% then there is short flatish fitness.

    Gorka has been hanging about and is a strong betting chance for me on this one.
    ,
    ,Stage Winner:
    .5pts Gorka Izaguirre 14/1 bet365
    .25pts LL Sanchez 22/1 bet365
    ,
    Match bets:
    1.5pts Porte to beat Evans evens pinnacle
    1pt Rogers to beat Machado 5/4 bet365, ladbrokes
    5pts Izagirre to beat Pozzovivo 1.72 pinnacle
    1pt LL Sanchez to beat Tom Dumoulin 2.43 pinnacle
    1pt Haas to beat Impey 7/4 hills
    1pt Thomas to beat Geschke 10/11 ladbrokes
    ,

    added to outright book
    .2pts Gorka Izaguirre 40/1 betvictor

  4. Stage 4:
    Well Stage 3 was poor from me and to think I thought Dennis did look a little too big but left it and the match bet was mostly poor. Evans has been strong and will prove a real test for Porte to winning this one. The 9/2 Dennis outright is worth considering with Evans half the price and paddys have each way on that.
    ,
    Not really a day for true sprinters in my view on a tricky day that should drop a few. Inside 10km we have one last kick to the nuts and then its a quick finish. The market rates Lobato who is already off the mark so value is elsewhere.
    ,
    Again I sound like a broken record but Impey has a price that stands out and we know he can sprint. Tom also needs to get involved today and is worth risking at 40/1. At the odds id oppose both Lobato and Kittel 1.355, and 1.292 with pinnacle.

    Stage Winner:
    .5pts Daryl Impey 15/1 bet365
    .2pt Tom Dumoulin 40/1 ladbrokes
    ,
    1pt Nizzollo to beat Kittel 3.27 pinnacle
    1pt Bonifazio to beat Del Valle 2.77 pinnacle
    1.5pts Rogers to beat Machado 5/6 bet365

  5. Stage 5:
    So Impey hit that crossbar 2nd to a suprise in Van Hoff who I thought might have won the peoples classic but not a day like this. Swift Bikes will be happy to get the attention as NTFO backers in one of there key markets. The match bets went 2 from 3, Nizollo cruised in just behind Kittel. Bonifazio was right up there in the top 10.
    ,
    On Stage 5 and the race is truely hotting up. Bet365 have Evans as short as 6/4 to win this out but the race is still very open. The same bookie is still offering 9/2 on Dennis to keep his lead till the end of the TDU. And so onto a key stage in the race the race up Willunga.
    ,
    Porte is 5/2 for stage and I would not put anyone off it but just worry little that he might let one get away and focus on Evans. My other tip for the outright Rogers is 25/1 so I just had be greedy and take a little bit of that. I will also nibble Dennis at 12/1 considering how strong he has looked.
    ,
    Stage 5 winner:
    .2pts M.Rogers 25/1 bet365
    .1pt R.Dennis 12/1 paddy power
    ,
    Some interesting match bets, Pozzovivo has looked really sharp and this climb repeat should suit more than Tom and its not very flat till near the end. Porte is a tempting 4/5 to beat Evans with hills.
    ,
    Pantano has been decent this week final climb should be more suitable for him. Bouet crashed pretty hard today surely feels it a little. Haig on fire this week surely gives it his all on final climb. Haas tempted me at 4/5 given he has done well here before.

    Match Bets:

    3pts Pozzovivo to beat T.Dumoulin 1.82 pinnacle
    2.25 pts Porte to beat Evans 4/5 hills
    3.5pt Pantano to beat Bennett 4/5 ladbrokes
    4pts haig to beat Bouet 10/11 ladbrokes
    1.5pts Haas to beat Hansen 4/5 ladbrokes

  6. Stage 6:

    ,
    Well the close calls keep coming, Dennis was 2nd on day Porte who I did suggest could be backed won Stage 5 but ame up two seconds short of taking the overall win. If anything he could have attacked earlier. Pozzovivo let down match bets but both Haig and Pantana did us proud as obviously did Porte.
    ,
    Onto Stage 6 a sprint stage. Its a circuit of Adelaide. The roads are quiet wide and that plays into Kittels hands as a train and very few hard luck stories are likely. I like Van Hoff but in the warm up classic he didn’t deliver the roads here are just too suited to Kittel and I expected shorter than 5/6 so I will take it.
    ,
    2pts Marcel Kittel to win 5/6 paddys

    1.5pts Dennis to beat Porte 2.39 pinnacle
    2pts Van Hoff to beat Haussler 4/5 ladbrokes

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