Tour De France Stage 10 Preview
Stage 9 went as predicted with the break and it was a funny one with plenty breaking out before pictures went live. By the time coverage came on we found Tony Martin up the road with Di Marchi with a sizable chasing pack. At that point it looked like surely the two men up front would become part of a larger break away but that never happened and Martin broke out from well out to hold off a sizable chase and take a stage victory by almost 3 minutes. Trading wise the lay of Sagan proved wise as he unable to get in the right break early on. I also laid Rolland below 10.0 insane considering the final 20km and in hindsight should have done the same for Rodriguez.
Gallopin and Albasini were early trades but with about 55km to go I decided to get Martin into my book at 2.9 a wise decisions as he cracked his break away companion soon after. In behind Gallopin and Europcar for Rolland did huge chunks of work to gain time on GC and it ended with the French man Gallopin in yellow for Bastille day.
Profit wise again we didn’t have a clear day for the blog personally trading stages has been the most lucrative means so far but the match bets should pay off an overall we look in decent shape. Our profit for the day on Stage 9 blog was +2.56pts. I do tweet some bets in play so suggest you might get some good advice in play for the Tour.
Tour De France Stage 10 Preview
Tour De France Stage 10 features a familiar finish from the 2012 Tour were Chris Froome broke away late for a stage win as Evans and Wiggins followed home. It a 161km stage with a mountain top finish on a hilly day before we reach the Alpes after the rest day. In all the stage has 7 climbs 4 listed as Cat 1 so this is really going be a drain on the riders.
The opening climb is a nice introduction before the 2nd and tricky climb of the Petit Ballon. That climb is the longest of the day and at 8.1% is the 3rd steepest on the day so from here we could see the sprinters and tired legs falling away. Its a climb that ramps up and is much steeper at its top. The descent is quiet tight but short before the next climb of Platzerwasel. Like the Petit Ballon that climb gets progressively steeper and at its top is sure to lose a few tired men with the last km at the 10% mark. The descent is quiet nice and should also a few to catch on over the next two climbs which are nothing too long or difficult.
The Col Des Chevreres is not long but at 9.5% will sure to be the start of any attacking rides or team tactics. For nearly half the climb it is in the 10%+ area topping out at 18% with a good section of 15%. Most rides will hold back but maybe test some legs here with 9km of descent it might prove tricky to stay away with another 5.9km of climbing still to finish. La Planche Des Belles Filles is 5.9km at 8.5% but stop start in nature. It comes in 5 sections, beginning just under 10% before easing off, then its a slightly longer 9-10% section before easing off again but less so than earlier. The riders then hit the finishing section. A flat spot to start before the gradient rises well into double figures.
Contador will have seen this as his key place to strike before the rest day and his performance on Saturday will have done nothing to change that. Contador is very short as a result but his focus is mostly on Nibali and cracking him. Ignore Rodriguez a rider I will happily lay below 15s for this stage he burnt a match Sunday and won’t hold this field off. The man to look for might be Saturdays next best Porte. He knows this climb as he rode in 2012 and it might suit him bit more if he can play his cards right. In terms of pace setting I don’t expect Lotto to work past the second climb really. Tinkoff will be keen but so should Ag2r and BMC.
Pinot is starting to grow strong but at 20/1 I can’t favour but twice the price is his white jersey rival Bardet and he could spring a surprise. We saw both him and Van Garderen go well on Saturday and we both know from this season they can spring away as they did in Catalunya. I will look to get some positions on Betfair too and try get some green. Valverde did come across in the mind but he has looked a little tame for me but maybe someone else can say otherwise
Tour De France Stage 10 Bets:
.3pts Richie Porte 16/1 youwin (19.0 Betfair)
.15pts Romain Bardet 40/1 bet365
.15pts Tejay Van Garderen 50/1 betvictor
2.5pts Tejay Van Garderen to beat JC Peraud 1.94 pinnacle
1pt Frank Schleck to beat Pierre Rolland 6/4 paddys
2pts Kangert to beat Scarponi 2.24 pinnacle
1pt Horner to beat Ten Dam 7/4 paddys
1pt Navarro to beat Brice Feillu 11/8 hills
1.5pts Machado to beat Gallopin 10/11 hills
1.5pts Trofimov to beat Konig 2.12 pinnacle
1pt Bardet to beat Pinot 7/4 paddys