Tour De France Stage 11 Preview
So before we look at Tour De France Stage 11 and coming off the rest day lets look back at Stage 10 and how I feel it went and the results for the blog. Nibali pushed on late to win Stage 10 the work by his team was fantastic and he converted it catching Rodriguez and dropping him, only Pinot could launch any sort of attack but still lost 15sec gaining 5 seconds on Valverde back in 3rd. Peraud who i thought might be in the shadow of Bardet this Tour is shining right now and really anyone outside the top 7 on Stage 10 will do well to make the podium in Paris.
It was a horrible day for Contador as he crashed out, rumours have spread but one thing that seems right is that he just took a little too much of a risk. It was a pity with the blog advising Contador at 2/1 before the start he was in prime position and riding well. My overall book involves much larger chunks but Contador was a huge winner in my book. King and Hayman join him out of the race. Rodriguez has shown he is keen to go for Polka Dots and its going be hard to deny him given his climbing qualitys evens at 80-90% compared to his main rivals outside of the GC contenders. Tiago Machado crashed hard and nearly pulled out coming last his race is now on the back foot.
In the GC Mollema and Rui Costa lost some time, with Schleck and Van Den Broeck losing a little more. Two guys to watch are Horner who will thrive in the warmer weather that is coming while Spilak has picked up after a slow start but heat might be his demise. We didn’t do that well the Machado crash cost us a bet and the two very close bets went against us. We had an off day recording a -4.2pts.
Tour De France Stage 11 Preview
Tour De France Stage 11 will see the riders come in off a rest day. The riders have a testing climb ahead of them coming off a rest day so It won’t be a case of getting back in the swing of things here. The terrain is hilly and while the day has 4 categorised climbs the riders will have faced quiet a bit of climbing before they arrive to the base of the days first official climb at 131.5km. it is over 50km from that first official climb to the finish which I expect we see a reduced sprint for as the final 10-15km will be ridden fast.
Peter Sagan is the first name on the lips here, but Cannondale might find few allies to chase and getting in the break might prove wise for a rider who feels he has what it takes to stay away. The first climb is not steep but 7.6km so might blow few out back, then they quickly face into a shorter but steeper climb. The 3rd climb is not long or steep and really the 4th and last climb will be the real tester. For the break the attacks could come on any of the final two climbs the finish is fast and so staying away would be possible if a move is well timed and the chase isn’t cooperating.
I find this stage extremely tricky to call and it is likely one I decide on in play. Peter Sagan will have his work cut out here and let us not forget that Gerrans can match him in a sprint and Trentin has beat him. I think break has wise chance to laying Sagan is wise. Bakelants is the name on many lips but at 33/1 not for me. One theory I do have is for Saxo now without a plan to send its strong riders up the road.
Cancellara has pulled out at half way not in form and sponsors happy he will aim to build up form for the end of the season. Trading wise anyone who can descend well and climb half decent will be getting in my book.
Tour De France Stage 11 Bets:
1pt Lay of Peter Sagan 4.1 Betfair (risk 3.1pts)
.2pts Michael Rogers 50/1 paddy power
.2pts Nicholas Roche 50/1 Betfred
Tour De France Stage 11 Match Bets:
1.25pts Fugslang to beat Kangert 3/4 hills
1pt Konig to beat Ten Dam 1.81 pinnacle
1pt Tom Dumoulin to beat Van Avermaet 2.42 pinnacle
1pt Kwiatkowski to beat Gallopin 6/4 hills