Tour De France Stage 18 Preview
Stage 17 was hectic, a small break went away fro the drop of the flag but the chase was fierce from Katusha who kept them to a minute and then on the climbs a bigger attack happened and they set on there way trying to rack up points and a possible stage win. In the end Majka proved that he could have done a lot more for Contador in the first week as he proved strong enough to hold off the chasing peloton and cracked Visconti who he caught late on in the final climb. Nibali attacked the group of favourites but couldn’t make the catch, benefitting was Peraud who was strong enough to hold onto his wheel on the climb.
Rolland moved well up the GC with a 9th on the day and Schleck was 10th also moving into the GC top 10. Mollema also had solid day from the break and enters the top 10. Valverde was next having looked cooked earlier in the climb a fine ride from team mate Izagirre got him back into his stride. Van Den Broeck and Zubeldia suffered a bit while Konig lost enough time to dent his top 10 hopes. Kittel was last home in 166th with Veelers guiding him home. Spilak was pulled out of the race at one stage in the top 5 hopes of the Tour.
Betting wise I did very little trading as I came in late and was catching up on delayed pictures. Our match bets were rewarding us as we went 5 from 6 for those. The bet on Peraud didn’t prove too unwise. As such we had a profit of +3.45pts a solid day.
Tour De France Stage 18 Preview
So onto Tour De France Stage 18. A stage that will see the riders go over two iconic tour de France climbs. They first climb two easier short climbs early in this short 145km stage. Then they heat the sprint in Trebons. From here the stage really begins as it drags up to Bagneres De Bigorre before the climb the Col Du Tourmalet and descend the long road to the Hautacam. This is the last mountain stage the last chance to make that drastic move in this Tour De France.
At 17.1km at 7.3% they hit the Tourmalet from its east side once again like in 2013. At first it is quiet shallow good as the riders get there feed bags at the base of the climb in the lovely village of Sante Marie De Campan. After 5km it begins to show its teeth. a km at 7% before sections never below 8% till the top. At half way riders face two testing 10% sections. Expect many suffering men. But with a long down hill and flat spot to the base of the Hautcam expect some sort of regrouping.
The Hautacam is celebrating 20 years as part of the Tour De France. With 13.6km at 7.8% it is shorter but a little steeper. It starts off not bad with very little above 9%. A shallow section 6km in is followed by steeper stuff for 2k in the 10% plus. Its 2nd half has another 10% plus section with easier sections in between. The final 2.5km are about 7% and there should be some time gaps. Who will work and who won’t is very open for debate, expect Majka and Rodriguez to go for points over the Tourmalet and will Astana be interesting in doing anything more than a modest pace. On a fine days racing lets hope we get a winner we will want to remember on Hautacam on Tour De France Stage 17.
Vincenzo Nibali is a favourite here with his strong showing on stage 17 resulting in market confidence. Majka is again popular but it has to be a huge ask of the lad to go all the way again and he is worth opposing at single figure odds. Down the order two 100/1 shots tempt me in Ten Dam and Trofimov just felt both could be value calls. Both those outsiders can be backed at 100+ on betfair and look worth an investment of our hard earned.
Pinot I feel can return to better ways by ridding a little more conservative early on and holding back his team. Bardet is his main worry but he still very much has his eye on a top 3 and podium spot he will want to take down Peraud but most of all Valverde who has been a thorn in his side. Konig can bounce back here we saw him away with Majka earlier in the race and he has the talents for this sort of finish at a very nice price.
Tour De France Stage 18 Bets:
.25pts Thibout Pinot 18.0 Betfair
.15pts Leopold Konig 66/1 bet victor
Tour De France Stage 18 Match Bets:
3pts Nibali to beat Majka 1/2 paddys
2pts Pinot to beat Peraud 6/4 bet365
1pt Bardet to beat Valverde 6/5 bet365
1pt Horner to beat Nieve 2.85 pinnacle
1.5pts Rolland to beat Frank Schleck 1.9 pinnacle
2.5pts Konig to beat Van Den Broeck 1/2 paddys
.5pts Konig to beat Ten Dam 11/8 ladbrokes
2pts Brice Feillu to beat Porte 1.77 pinnacle
Van Garderen to beat Mollema 8/13 paddys