Pre match football trading is a concept that is becoming more and more popular on Betfair,
The idea of being able to profit without fear of the result of a game was hugely appealing to me when i started looking into this area nearly 3 years ago.
It’s a totally different ball game to inplay trading, its a game of numbers, patience, opinion, aggression, psychology and of course.. Money.
There are many ways to trade the football markets Pre match, 2.5 and Match odds are the most liquid and tend to be the most popular, however i do my work in the correct score markets and this is the area i want to focus on.
There are 3 markets that are key, firstly the two primary markets, Match odds, and Over/Under 2.5, those 2 markets set the price for the correct score market, its a numbers game. If under 2.5 steams, then 0-0 and 1-0 0-1 should.
If an away favourite drifts and unders steam then 1-0 and possibly 1-1 will come in.
Common sense really but important to note.
This is a human v human battle remember, you’re in the market against another person, think like a punter, think like a trader, think like your opponent.
Learn the markets, treat them nicely, as you can tell im very passionate about what i do, never put a single pound in without a reason, why am i entering now? what do i want from the trade.
Have a plan if it goes for and against you.
Pre match markets are quick, their fragile, their strong, they’re a mathematical model which luckily for us most people who use Betfair dont understand..the element of “guessing” of course plays a part, if we’re looking for a price that will move then we have to consider what the primary markets of MO and 2.5 will do. But were never making these decisions without logic, trends, numbers..All help decide.
For many people the idea of only making 1 tick at a time is confusing and doesn’t suit their nature, as most of us after all are gamblers at heart, the big win and the big loss is all part of the game.
But Pre match is different, it’s a game of fine margins, steady profits and constantly keeping an edge over the markets.
Over time id like to go further into some of the more complex concepts but for now let’s have a look and a basic trade.
Basle v Chelsea in the Europa league 2 weeks ago.
The prices on the left of each screen shot are the current Betfair prices at the time of the screenshot.
In the middle is what the tool suggests they should be.
Prices pretty much inline. Keep a note of what the current correct score prices are.
The thought process behind the trading here was team news key, Chelsea possible resting players, Rafa likes to tinker.
Also there had been a trend towards the market backing under 2.5 goals with Chelsea in Europe.
You need a clear plan when going into a market, research past odds, form, team news, all which i will cover more in-depth in the future.
Now this screenshot in the market just before KO.
You can see how Basel have steamed and Chelsea have drifted, quite a move.
Team news played a key part here, no Juan Mata, he is a particular market favourite.
Also the light move fr the unders, often see when a fav drifts unders steam and visa versa, this is due to the market goal expectancy from each side.
You can see how the Basle correct score prices have come in, and Chelsea’s gone out.
1-0 from 12 into 10, 0-1 from 10 out to 11.
In future posts we will look at taking advantage of these opportunities and go more in-depth into the markets
Any question i will be happy to answer.