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Trading the Premier League Win Market


PL Win Market > trading this all season

The long-term markets aren’t usually of much interest to me unless you can trade them; this market I do each year as it is a decent one to profit from

If you assume the ‘big 3’ will finish 1-2-3 then you can trade movement in the market all through the 40 odd week season

So looking at the current pre-season market >



The logic behind this is to lay the fav and back the outsider of 3… if you keep doing this then the only loss is if they never change really!

So for example, backing Utd now at 4 for 200pts > potential win of 600pts

Lay Chelsea at 3.3 for 200pts > potential loss of 460pts

If Utd get some good results and move in to 3.2, then lay them for 250pts, this gives rise to a potential liability of 550pts

You now have +600 on the back bet, -550 on the lay bet, which means you have greened-up for 50pts whatever the final outcome

Chelsea may have drifted out to 4 by now, you then back them for 165pts giving a possible profit of 495pts

You now have -460pts on the lay bet, +495pts on the back bet, meaning you have greened-up for 35pts

* So, each individual trade (greening-up) means a guaranteed profit – by combining them you can make more and more but you just need to be aware of each trade (back/lay) so you can track the relative sides of the trade and place the accordant stake

If the prices get worse either way, then you could always have a stop-loss or just put up with it and hope… there shouldn’t be much downside as these 3 teams are unlikely to be really poor (hence their price drifting out a lot) and there isn’t much lower downside on the favs anyway

By using reasonable stakes and just following this theory all season, you should be able to make a profit on the peaks and troughs as these 3 teams should trade for a while within the 2-5 range on Betfair




About Author

* UK born, now live in sunny Australia * Specialise in golf & football but also dabble on the nags, cricket, US sports, AFL, etc * Always looking to go against the flow and tend to trade most of the time

1 Comment

  1. United’s 4-1 opening day won brought their price into 3.85 to lay so a small profit there immediately if required!

    I would expect many twists and turns throughout the season and hence many chances to make small profits > the general theory is to keep backing the highest of the 3 and laying the lowest

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