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UCI World Tour – Tour Down Under – Overall and Stage Preview and Bets

12

Overall preview here, for sale check comment box for stage bets.

This race was built up with a classic crit race and now the riders face 6 stages mostly flat but two stages should present chances of time gaps for GC contenders but really stage 5 should be the key. Last year saw Gerrans and Valverde battle it out for overall victor on Old Willunga Hill. Both men had big seasons with Gerrans taking a monument with Milan San Remo, discount and Valverde took a second in the Vuelta.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2ZUayjUbSo&w=560&h=315

Stage 1: Prospect to Lobethal, sick 135km
Stage 2: Mt Barker to Rostrevor, 116.5km
Stage 3: Unley to Stirling, 139km
Stage 4: Modbury to Tanunda, 126.5km
Stage 5: McLaren Vale to Old Willunga Hill, 151.5km
Stage 6: Adelaide Street Circuit, 90km

Startlist – Provisional
Riders of note (so far): Boasson Hagen, Rojas, Visconti, A. Schleck, Rogers, Iglinskiy, Guardini, Kelderman Gasparotto, De Gendt, Greipel, Kelderman, Kittel, Gerrans, P Velits, Lloyd and Gilbert.

The Stage 2 climb may cause a big spilt it is before the finish but the downhill finish means the first over the top of what looks like a steep lcimb may be the first home. Warm conditions expected but temperatures will not be excessive.

Outright:

Peter Velits can provide value for outright backers

Gerrans is here to defend and is favourite at 7/2 to do so. However he has a strong team mate in Simon Clarke who can climb when he wants to and so should be hanging around he is a much more attractive 25/1 with corals. Clarke proved himself last season,  he won a stage of the Vuelta and its climbers jersey in 2012. He also had a good second in Norway if he can carry that form in 2013 he could be Oricas Wildcard.

Peter Velits of OPQS also takes the eye as a quality rider able to climb who can hold his form early in year. He won the tour of Oman in february last year showing he can get going early in the year beating Nibali to the leaders jersey.

Keldermann is another who I like and I previewed him in my young riders to follow but his team mate Haas may be the one they work for.  He came good in the Tour of Britain, he finished this race last year having tried to get involved in a break away.

.2pts Clarke to win TDU 25/1 Corals

.2pts P.Velits to win TDU 40/1  betvictor

.1pts N.Haas to win TDU  50/1 various.

Outright Matchbets:

Rojas Gil is a stand out bet against sprinter Greipel

10pt Rojas Gil to beat Greipel 4/7 betvictor

Suprised but to kick of the season I do have a 10pt bet, Rojas Gil was a bit of sprinter in his day but is a rider in the style of Gerrans and Gilbert really. Last year he worked for Valverde on key stage and finished just down on the winner while Greipel finished a long way back when the road went up.

2pts P.Velits to beat Moreno Bazan 6/5 bet365

4pts Boasson Hagen to Beat Machado evens bet365, 2.34 pinnacle

Boasson Hagen is been taked up as in fine shape for this task the finishes will suit him while machado is more of a long climb man and build toward the Algarve next month.

2pts M.Lloyd to beat Rojas Gil  5/4 hills (11/10 bet365)

2pts M.Lloyd to beat  T.Slagter  8/11 betvictor

3pts CA Sorensen to beat Asterloza 8/11 hills (1.73pinnacle)

1pt N.Haas to beat J.McCarthy 3/5 bet365 (1.66 pinnacle)

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

12 Comments

  1. Stage 1 :

    Looks like some bumps in road but finish is flat enough that it wil lbe the sprinters that don’t get dropped.

    2pts T.Farrar to beat Boaason Hagen 2/1 bet365 11/5 hills
    2pts Hutarovich to beat Rojas Gil 13/10 bet365 (2.4Pinnacle)
    1pt Guarneiri to beat Appoliino 11/10 bet365 (hills)

  2. A great stage 2 to look forward to:

    2pts P.Velits to beat C.Slagter 4/5 bet365 (1.81 pinnacle)
    2pts J.Moreno Bazan to beat T,Machado 11/10 bet365, hills (2.13 pinnacle)
    2pts S.Clarke to beat G.Thomas 5/4 hills (2.47 pinnacle)
    3pt Rojas to beat Boaassen Hagen bet365 11/4
    2pts P.Velits to beat Iglinsky 8/13 ladbrokes
    1pt S.Clarke to beat T.Machado 4/5 ladbrokes

    .1pt De Gendt to win stage 40/1 skybet

  3. Hello gghofman. Well done for your blog , I enjoy reading it. I agree with most of the bets you are posting. However , I can’t get the reason behind Velits beating Slagter . Velits is a kind of “nothing or all” , do you know if he is in form ? Slagter – you think will work for Kelderman ?

  4. Hey

    Thanks for the feedback, Peter has talked up his form once again for this week, he won his first race of year last year hes solid in these conditions, the situation at garmin is confusing.

  5. Weather update from Adelaide: Thursday will be 38 C so a really hot one, Friday through to Sunday expected to be about 25 C so pleasantly warm and not too hot – Sunday perhaps about 26 C

  6. Stage 3:
    Stage is bumpy as hell and may ride like a classic stage, cant see pure sprinters getting involved.

    1pt Hermans to beat Thomas 12/5 bet365
    2pts M.Iglinsky to beat P.Velits 13/10 bet365 (2.31pinnacle)
    2pts Elissonde to beat Machado 6/5 bet365 (7/5hills) (2.53pinnacle)

    2pt J.Moreno Bazan to beat T.Slagter 6/4 bet365 (2.74 pinnacle)
    2pts Gerrans to beat Ponzi 7/5 bet365 (2.45 pinnacle)
    1.5pts CA Sorensen to beat to beat R.Valis 6/4 bet365 (7/4 hills)
    1.5pt CA Sorensen to beat Cherel 11/10 betvic
    1pt Clarke to beat Iglinsky evens betvictor
    2pt De Gendt to beat Gasparatto 4/6 betvictor

    6pts Rojas Gil to beat Ponzi 8/11 betvic

    Rojas should really take to the stage, he was well ahead of Ponzi yesterday and has more talent than him to boot as well, should be involved at finish.

    5pts Demare to beat Greipel 11/10 ladbrokes

    the stage is a test the finish is uphill demare can hang in a bit as proven yesterday when in with the main guys held up in crash, greipeel was further down

  7. Stage 4:

    2pt Greipel to win stage 1.75 pinnacle
    1pt Guardini to beat Kittel 2/1 bet365 3.22 pinnacle
    3pt Pietropolli to beat thomas 11/20 bet365 (1.633 pinnacle)
    2pts Rojas Gil to beat Hutarovich evens hills 2.08pinnacle
    2pt Goss to beat Deamre 11/10 betvic
    2pts P.Velits to beat M.Iglinsky 10/11 betvictor
    1pt Hutavorich to beat Farrar 4/5 ladbrokes

  8. Stage 5:

    Should be one hell of a stage, twice up Old WIllunga Hill should be spot on:

    2pts J.Moreno Bazan to beat T.Machado 10/11betvic
    2pts Izaguirre to beat Hermans 6/5 bet365
    1pt Thomas to beat t.Slagter evens bet365, ladbrokes
    1pt Hansen to beat Bauer 8/5 bet365
    2pts C.ASorsenen to beat Vallis 11/10 bet365
    2pts Gilbert to beat Visconti evens bet365
    1pt Izaguirre to beat bennet 3/4 betvictor
    4pt Santaromita to beat Bauer 3/4 betvictor

    8pts C.A.Sorensen to beat Kashenkin evens betvic
    I really fancy Sorensen to go very well here hes been thereabouts and has kashenkin as an easy match up here that he should win.

    2pts G.Bennett to beat Bauer 4/5 ladbrokes
    2pts Viekanen to beat Bauer 2.48 pinnacle

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