SBBCOLUMNS Bringing You Previews, Reviews and Selections.

Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2015 Preview

6

Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2015 Preview

Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco gets under way on Monday with the Giro just around the corner. I won’t go too detailed for this blog. Its five stages and a time trial for this year. Stage 1 is testing enough to narrow the possibble field of winners. 13km of flat from top of final climb. Stage 2 has climbs but easier and a 9km downhill finish chance for smart well placed sprinter. Stage 3 is interesting, it has a super steep ramp at the end of a shortish climb and the race over the top isn’t far too the line. Stage 4 is a near MTF with just a short distance to the line from the top. Plenty climbing on table and a big stage but 5 is even bigger.

By Stage 5 we should have just  handful of contenders for the overall. Stage 5 looks brutal, A new climb  last raced in 2010 is included which Rodriguez won on says it all. (Profile of finish below) Time trial is just over 18km and it starts quick for the first 11km, after that it climbs its not flat really at any point. A bike change could be on the cards in this test.

Profile of stage 5 finish

This terrain is prefect for Quintana who we know is in top shape, Kwiatkowski won’t be his biggest rival despite what market says, Kwia has proven himself but these steep and multiple climbs do not match his skill set. As always his support cast is top notch. Peraud is worth a shout I love that he has eased into 2015, last year he was 3rd from his Crit win and again he could push close.

Bennett is a very left field pick but he gets a chance to lead this Jumbo team and I would hope he can reward that chance. Pinot I like a lot but the same price as Peraud makes no sense for me. Interested see how Talansky can do after a quiet Paris Nice while Mollema comes in with a superb 2nd.

Peraud could deliver riches for the blog

Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco Outright:

3pts Nairo Quintana 6/4 skybet

.5pts J C Peraud 25/1 betvictor

2pts Kwiatkowski not to win 1.15 pinnacle

.05pts each way George Bennett 250/1 skybet

1pt Quintana to beat Kwiatkowski 2/5 bet365 (3pts 1.42 pinnacle)

1pt T Van Garderen to beat Pinot evens bet365 .25pts 2.04 pinnacle

1pt Mollema to beat Rui Costa 5/6 bet365 .25pts 2.07 pinnacle

3pts Peraud to beat Spilak evens bet365 (.25pts 1.95 pinnacle)

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

6 Comments

  1. Stage 1:
    Tricky call this stage and the market says as much with no clear favourite and near 10/1 the field. Gerrans at 33s might be interesting if he is up for this but Orica also have Matthews and Albasini as options.
    I take DUmoulin at large odds knowing he might hang around and has the power to contest. Ulissi was no doubt going well before his doping positive set him back , he could stick two fingers up here with a win.Rui Costa is my 3rd outsider he will have a win on the rain as overall may be beyond him this week.
    ,
    .1pt Tom Dumoulin 60/1 betvictor
    .1pt Diego Ulissi 40/1 paddys
    .1pt Rui Costa 66/1 paddys

    1pt Ulissi to beat Slagter 2.37 pinnacle
    1.25pts Atapuma to beat Benat Inxausti 2.16 pinnacle
    .5pt Rui Costa to beat Mollema 1.9 pinnacle

  2. Stage 2:
    Another great win for bling Matthews over Kwia. The climbs arn’t too difficult so few have a chance. One thing is the crazy late crash on stage 1 might affect a few. Felline and Simon where not far off today so the prices tempt me Dumoulin again might do better.
    ,
    .2pts Fabio Felline 50/1 paddys
    .2pts Julien Simon 50/1 bet365
    .1pt Tom Dumoulin 66/1 bet365
    ,
    1pt Gilbert to beat Slagter 8/15 bet365
    1pt Rui Costa to beat Mollema evens bet365
    1pt DUmoulin to beat Vuillermo 8/15 bet365

  3. Stage 3:
    Well its was just 1 from 3 on the match bets the two losers going close, Slagter wasnt at races but at 8/15 I didnt push the boat. Good news however was the victory of Felline at 50/1.
    ,
    Lots of climbing on day 3 again. We have a super steep finish but it leaves 3km over the top to the finish.2.5km at near 10% means that whoever left in the pack for final climb will have mighty fight on not to lose some time over a climb long enough to crack tired legs.I think Kwiatkowski might pay for his sprinting exploits in this stage.
    ,
    Rodriguez is favourite as he has won this stage before just to a prime Sam Sanchez. Quintana though has it in him to win this and we know he is sharp for the task so he is a bet covered. Mollema is thriving this season and I expect Trek to try get involved the pint sized Arredondo might want get involved. Henao is my main bet, the sky man was a prime candidate pre injury for a stage like this and he is very much coming back to his best.
    ,
    Stage Bets:
    .5pts Nario Quintana 9/2 hills
    .2pts B.Mollema 18/1 bet365
    .25pts S.Henao 40/1 paddys
    .1pt J.Arredondo 40/1 paddys
    ,
    1.5pts Matthews to beat Felline 5/6 bet365
    .5pts Arredondo to beat Kwiatkowski 3/1 bet365
    1.5pts Mollema to beat RUi Costa 8/11 bet365
    1pt Peraud to beat Van Garderen 8/13 bet365
    .5pt Chaves to beat Pinot 13/8 bet365
    .5pt Ulissi to beat Slagter 3/1 bet365

  4. Stage 4:
    Truely crossbar hit 40/1 shot henao crossed the line in 2nd and Quintana was 2nd a pity for the blog. A 7km to finish at just under 7%. I expect Quintana to let the fireworks off here after just holding his powder dry yesterday.
    ,
    3pts Quintana 9/4 betvictor
    ,
    .5pts Sanchez to beat Kwiatkowski evens bet365

  5. Stage 5:
    Quintana is doing as little as possible it seems happy to bid his time, rodrigue truely nicked the stage today denying my late in play bet of Mollema a little annoying. The stage played out assure than id planned but Kwia did still lose some time.9 climbs today so should get very interesting. The finish climb is in two parts. 3.5km at nearly 9% with a short decent before the uphill finish which is just over a km at 12% and more. Again Rodrigue has won here it was a suprise he won stage 4 but stage 3 suited him if he was upto fitness and he is.
    ,
    Henao might have it in him if he times it a little better this time and prehaps quintana might give it a dig here. I am just going go small here the break may have its chance, but Henao price is gone and I doubt we see the 40s on him in this type of stage for a long time.
    ,
    Stage Winner:
    .2pt Bauke Mollema 33/1 bet365
    .1pt M.Scarponi 33/1 bet365
    ,
    1.25pts Sanchez to beat Kwiatkowski 6/4 bet365 (2.7 pinnacle)
    1.75pt Mollema to beat Yates 5/6 bet365

  6. Stage 6:
    Astana are still on the lips with Landa taking a stage win, Yates broke out from the rest to nail an impressive result from him. This 18km tt already formed part of the stage 5 and barely hits a flat spot. Its a quick 10km downhill before they hit the climb in two parts. The final 2km or so are steep and sapping and the real climbers will make there time here. It would seem a roadbike with tt bars is the way to go for this testing day.

    This time trial is a tricky call and id prefer Kwia over Martin but im unsure I could back either at odds of 2/1 or 10/3. I had taaramae in mind to do quiet well so I took a tiny bet on him at 300/1. I would normally go Quintana but im on overall and a little worried y his lack of willing to show the past two days. Izagiree could go well but at near twice price I have opted for TVG and Zakarin to strike

    .1pt Rein Taaramae 300/1 bet365
    .25pts Tejay Van Garderen 33/1 bet365
    .1pt Zakarin 22/1 paddys

    1pt Sanchez to beat Majka evens bet365
    .5pt Scarponi to beat Rodriguez 11/10 bet365

Leave A Reply

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox

Join other followers: