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Vuelta A Espana 2014 Cycling Preview

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Vuelta A Espana 2014 Cycling Preview

Lets get this show on the road

Vuelta A Espana 2014 Route Profile

So onto the last Grand Tour of the year this weekend and its been hugely successful year on the cycling betting front here on the blog so lets hope Vuelta A Espana 2014 will be the same. So we get 21 stages of racing over the next 3 weeks.  This years race is heavily raced in North West Spain and away from the Pyreenes and the East Coast, while the south also sees quiet a bit of racing. We open with a team time trial just like we have in the Giro. It covers 12.6km on a very flat profile. A good power time trial so expect the teams with stand out men to do well. Late roundabouts may cause some bother.

Stage 2 looks like a sprinters day, perhaps wind could cause issues. Stage 3 interesting quiet a bit of climbing in the middle of the stage with a short uphill sprint to finish it off, could see surprise winner with any time gaps very small. Depending on who lead from the time trial we could see a change from this stage. Stage 4 features more climbs to frustrate sprinters who might struggle to make a suitable finish. The finish is very scenic and it will be interesting to see who can grab a stage win.

Stage 5 features a late climb to test the legs before going over the top for a shallow down hill to the finish. Should be a quiet day or will we be surprised. Stage 6 is first big day in the mountains as they come from sea level to past 1,000m. Final climb is over 4km long and with a flat spot it is well over its 10% gradient for the most part. Expect those not with it to lose notable time. Stage 7 might just be seen as too much for the sprints and a chance for a break with very medium terrain and a not too difficult finish.

Stage 8 is a 200km test but one that the sprinters should be looking forward to. This is a day for the sprinters as we see the race move North from after this day. Stage 9 is in complete contrast to that. An 8km final climb at 6-7% will test the riders. With climbing before hand to sap the legs it should get pretty interesting. Stage 10 comes off the rest day, and to make sure the riders have to come out firing a 36.7km will test the legs. It starts up hill but from the top of the climb it is quick and downhill expect some seriously quick times on this one. Pushing a massive gear will be the key here and so expect a specialist to come good.

Stage 11 is another testing day for riders. The day that comes closest to entering the Basque country so expect the final climb to be absolute nuts on this day.  Its a long enough climb and at over 7% it should create a few gaps.  After 11 stages we should really see the GC taking shape and know who is here on holiday or for fun and who is dead serious. Stage 12 is a strange circuit race we have seen before that looks more suited to smaller races than a Vuelta Grand Tour. Stage 13 is interesting at it looks quiet straight forward till the end. And that finish might just mean that the climbs before do break it up as the sprinters will not have ambitions to hang on. The finish should be a cracker a short steep climb just out from the finish could really make this interesting.

Stage 14 features two cat 1 climbs but with a huge flat valley between climbs meaning really the final climb will be all that troubles the pack. The final climb is over 8km at 7.5% and should again make things very interesting with teams likely still strong in numbers at its base. Stage 15 has a major climb to finish for the end of week 2. It is 12.2km at 7.2% but it is a climb that varies in its gradient. It has two short down hills and the finish is really steep for a short late kick at nearly 20%. Stage 16 gives us a serious climbing day. This is a real proper mountain day were we could even see some men crack before the final climb. Expect anyone who hopes to do well in this Giro to be visible here. Climbs of 10km 8.8%,  10.1km 8.5% and 16.5km at 6.2% to finish off. Final climb has some flat spots so is just as difficult due to its length.

Stage 17 comes off the rest day and will relent unlike the the last rest day time trial. Should interest the sprinter and some hopeful break away riders. Stage 18 has a long run till it hits the climbs of the day. The two climbs do have some step parts but not been super long that could actually play to the hands of a break. Stage 19 is a strange one with very little likely to happen a day for a break again perhaps. A prefect stage for off rest day is used with just 3 stages left. Stage 20 of course will be our last day in the mountains. The final climb is 12.7km at 8.7% and should provide a real stern test for the riders and move the GC about a little. Stage 21 will be a time trial rather than the procession sprint we sometimes get although I think for the Tour it works just fine.  A short 9.7km time trial shouldn’t change much but it should be a great spectacle and one last effort for the riders. No Madrid this year for the Vuelta A Espana 2014.

Vuelta A Espana 2014 The Riders

First off the blocks is the news this morning that defending champion Horner will not take the start line for medical reasons in line with MPCC policy a pity in what would be his last hurrah as each year catches up on him. Conti replaces him now. With Horner out prehaps we can turn to Niemiec who had an upsetting set back to cost him a Giro chance while Anacona looked super strong when supporting Horner over in the USA. Niemiec was 15th 2years back in the Vuelta so he has raced these roads. Cunego was 19th in this years Giro but with his contract up Lampre seem to be placing faith elsewhere. Anacona is still young and this will be his 4th Grand Tour. His 3rd in Utah was a sign of how he riders at his best. Anacona has had a light enough season so should be just fine for 3 weeks here. Niemiec comes off 5th in Poland and this blog fancied he would go well in the Giro but a crash put pay to those chances.

Ag2r doesn’t look quiet as strong as it seeks its 3rd team victory in grand tours this year. Betancur has had major weight issues this season and has spent lots of time back home and not racing as Ag2r had wished. Dupont has been quiet results wise since his 16th in this years Giro, he was 17th in this race back in 2011 and seems to grind out 3 week racing well. Bouet had his best grand tour result in the Vuelta with a 20th but Dupont should be ahead of him. Nocentini has had quiet enough season and this will be his first grand tour of the season. He did well here in 2012 but does seems less of a rider these days for the Vuelta A Espana 2014.

Astana will be coming off a high from a hugely successful tour but also the shadow of the criminal investigation into Vino and his race buying activities during his career. Fabio Aru the 2nd best rider from Italys south comes in with likely team leader duties. Kangert should provide some valuable support. Aru was pretty quiet in Poland as he seemed to take a back seat, it was his first racing since his impressive ride to 3rd in the Giro. His really light schedule should mean a 2nd peak is very achievable for him in this Vuelta. Kangert was 20th in the Tour but should still have the legs to offer much needed help to Aru. Landa is another strong rider and the man I expect to be up there each and every day with Aru till late on.

With Belkin looking like having a future for next season contracts should start being tied up and riders will be keen to impress here. Belkin has left very little at home here with three big hitters on the start list. Keldermann raced to 5th in Utah, he has had a superb season with  a strong 7th in the Tour he is a rider who looks after himself and finds it easy to hold his form. Ten Dam rode to a superb 9th in the Tour but surely is left a little light to repeat that here against much fresher riders. Gesink returns from his heart troubles that derailed his season to race this Vuelta. A quiet 8th in Poland will have pleased him haven not finished a race since April. He had started the season so well and is so capable that he could well end up leading Belkin here.

BMC are strong handed here. Sanchez gets the leaders number but has a strong support cast with both Dennis signed from Garmin and Evans in the line up. Sanchez showed life in Poland and should not get the support of Evans for help in the Giro early in the season. Evans is hard to judge he nailed two stage wins in Utah and was 8th in the Giro. Its been a while since he last raced this back in 2009 he doesn’t really seem to do well doubling up grand tours like this but he could surprise us. Sammy has 3 grand tour podiums and did manage 8th last season despite been a little under par but a much strong field lines up for this one.

Caja Rural will be looking to get noticed as always as this is the jewel in there season. No surprise that both LL Sanchez and Arroyo will line up for this. Txurruka also provides strong Vuelta experience for those two riders, normally finishing his races in mid field. Sanchez has mixed fortunes really in his form the Tour of Turkey been a prime example of a race he was expected to push for victory in. If anything Arroyo looks the better candidate based on his 10th in Burgos were he went on the attack. A poor time trial cost him a higher place so that might cost him again here.

Cannondale riding its last Grand Tour as a team in its current form sends new Tinoff signing Peter Sagan and he should have plenty to interest him here. Can either Bennett or Caruso take a chance to impress here? Caruso has secured a future with BMC but Bennett is still finding a team for next season. Bennett had a solid 9th in Utah but hasn’t built on a good Trentino result. Caruso didn’t get close in Poland but was 3rd in Austria. He had a top 20 in last years Vuelta and can improve on that. Cofidis will have both Coppel and Navarro as cards to play. Coppel has a 13th in the Tour but perhaps Navarro can take after leaving the Tour early.

Europcar seem to be without a stand out leader Sicard hasn’t really grown into a rider capable of a top 10. Apart from him its hard to see the stand out overall candidate. FDJ have Pinot but he rode a stunning Tour and maybe it will be Ellisonde time to shine. Ellisonde has a stage win in last years Vuelta and this year in Oman looked top notch something like that would be most welcome. Garmin will have Talansky but he is likely to be taking a back seat here. Hesjedal and Martin should lead the line here. Hesjedal is a past Giro winner but has been a little in decline since. 9th in this years Giro shows he still has heart. Martin is less consistent in grand tours can he pull out big results to improve on his 13th here a best.

Giant have stage winner Barguil to lead out the team after last years good Vuelta A Espana 2014. He has had mixed results this season with nothing to stand out. He is needing a step up to make it here. Craddock joins him and is good here too and will hope he can get back to form like his 3rd in California to perform here. IAM have no really stand out leader Tschopp he was 9th in Oman but since hasn’t really not pushed on or kept it up. He has 15th and a 12th in the Giro over past two years.

Katusha will lead with Rodriguez who is still trying find his best racing after a torrid year. His 3rd in San Sebastian showed he might be getting back to his best after a Tour to ride himself to form. Moreno tends to have bad days which cost his grand tour hopes but he pushed Quintana in Burgos which impressed many. His best results have been in the Vuelta 3 top 10s show its his best race. Trofimov had a strong Tour but should ride in support here. Caruso should provide more strong support in a jam packed team of talent for this race.

Lotto will be lead by Van Den Broeck here who has had few set backs himself this year. He has twice been 4th in the Tour but this year found he couldn’t quiet match that level with a 13th in the end. Another 3 weeks might be too much for him however. The last time he raced both these he didnt deliver in the Vuelta. Movistar gave Valverde the number 1 bid but no doubt we know who is the real number 1 here with the Giro winner Quintana. The support cast is strong and he could well be a man to match the feat of Contador. MTN debut on the grand tour scene and lead with Pardilla the prefect choice who comes off a 5th in Burgos. He has had a solid season and with this a main target should be primed. Improving on 18th in the Giro 2 years ago will be his aim.

OPQS have sent a strong support cast here with Giro 2nd Uran. He has raced just once since the Giro but is a rider who knows how to look after himself and training back home has never been an issue for one of the most disciplined guys in cycling. Uran now with OPQS should get a much better chance to back up a Giro 2nd in a way he didn’t the year before. I expect he comes out firing once again. Orica likely won’t be worried about the overall but both Chaves and Yates are top talents and will be looking for stage wins.

Moving onto Sky who will be focused around the Tour winner 2013 Froome who should be well over his war wounds from this July. He trains so damn hard and is so focused and lets not forget he nearly won a Vuelta from leading Wiggins around Spain. The support cast is sickly good. He has bested Quintana before in the mountains but also knows the time trial gives him an extra edge over his main rival. Tinkoff come with Contador after lots of will he won’t he. His team is nowhere near what it was for the Tour so I am expecting if he does do well it will be after a week of getting himself back into racing. His Tour injuries were much more serious and took more time to heal and will have affected his form no doubt. A twice Vuelta winner it is always silly to write him off. Trek have two machines for the time trial but also options of Zubeldia and Arrendondo for the mountains.

 

Vuelta A Espana 2014 Bets:

I will go just a pt for now but looking at Froome in the time trial today will tell me a lot about him he has the beating of Quintana and he withdrew from the Tour with an awkward injury rather than an awful one. Both Aru and Uran are 33/1 with the books but go bigger and go betfair and grab both guys for a trade. Uran can be got at 44-48 while Aru is as big as 70 on the exchanges for the Overall winner

1.5pt Chris Froome 15/8 betvic

2pts Uran top 10 4/5 hills

2pts Fabio Aru top 10 evens paddys

At big odds Pardilla perhaps at 10/1 could interest some in his home race for MTN. Anacona at 25/1 is much too big also given his recent form. Froome 4/11 with skybet for top 10 may look very silly a few days in.

.75pts Niemiec top 10 11/5 skybet

For the KOM jersey which is always a tricky one I am going play Arrendondo but given so many key mountains finish stages it could well go to the race winner.

.2pts Julien Arredondo 18/1 betvictor

.2pts Chris Froome 8/1 betvictor

The points winner is always tricky at the Vuelta given the course and the fact so many riders will pull out early citing tiredness or a focus on the worlds. For that reason Sagan is 8/1 given he already has a Tour done this season. The team competition looks a better target with Belkin a stand out given they have no issues having multiple strong men and the team looks just that. Katusha also look strong handed and another team that tends to give this a focus as the 3rd rider can be so key.

.5pts Belkin 6/1 ladbrokes

.25pts Katusha 8/1 boylesports

 

Vuelta A Espana Match Bet:

2pts  Froome to beat Quintana 6/4 paddys

2.5pts pts Niemiec to beat Martin 11/8 sportingbet

2.5pts  Pardilla to beat Barguil 7/4 paddys

3pts Evans to beat Ten Dam 11/10 ladbrokes

5pts Winner Anacona to beat Serpa 1.63 pinnacle

2pts Ellissonde to beat Chaves 2.45 pinnacle

Gesink to beat Van Den Broeck 4/6 paddys, hills

About Author

Based in Dublin, Ireland. Introduced to betting through horse racing, placed my first bet on kicking king to win the Gold Cup at 4/1. Used my love of all sports to take an interest in betting on sports. Qualified accountant with a way with numbers. Over years have found the niche sports most rewarding with NFL and Cycling, but always dabble in bit of everything. Focus in future is good staking and improved trading. Also blog at http://sportinginvest.com/

18 Comments

  1. Have ot had time for stage previews at the moment im afraid so just going track my bets here rather than twitter for anyone who does want to follow.

    bouhanni man beat but have had some very small investments on 4 lively outsiders

    .66pts bouhanni 2/1 betvic (3.22 pinnacle
    .05pts ferrari 80/1 lads
    jasper stuyven 80/1 betvic
    lasca 80/1 ladbrokes
    hutarovich 150/1 bet365

    3pts stuyen to beat martinez 4/6 bet365
    1pt uran to beat quintana 13/10 sportingbet (2.27 pinnacle)
    1pt zubledia to beat kangert 2.23 pinnacle
    .5pt aru to beat uran 13/8 ladbrokes

  2. Stage 6 Bets:

    .35pts daniel moreno 16/1 (14/1 sportingbet)
    .15pts cadel evans 50/1 betvic

    .5pts moreno to beat valverde 2.59 pinnacle
    2.5pts pardilla to beat chavez 2.23 pinnacle
    4pts Kangert to bea Hesjedal evens sportingbet (7.25 10/11)
    1.5pts anacona to beat ellssonde 2.11 pinnacle
    1.5pts niemiec to beat zubeldia 4/7 bet365

  3. Stage 7 bets:

    .1pt Paul Maertens 40/1 ladbrokes
    .25pts Valverde 14/1 paddys

    2pt Navarro to beat Pardilla 2/1 bet365
    1pt Contador to beat Froome 6/4 bet365
    1.5pt Kangert to beat Arroyo 2.5 pinnacle
    2pts Bennett to beat Niemiec 11/8 bet365

  4. Stage 8 bets:

    Looks sprint day but winds can pick up here and the heat is blazing again, wouldn’t mind it myself given our weather. Note degenkolb finished last and saw the doctor today so all may not be right with him. Both Guardini and Ferrari tempt me at 18 and 20s but Stuyen who has been really competitive at 50s is too big for sure.

    .2pts Stuyen 50/1 betvictor
    .2pts Hofland 35/1 bet

    2pts hofland to beat Matthews 1.98 pinnacle
    1.5pts le mevel to beat Monfort 2.42 pinnacle
    1.5pts keldermann to beat valverde 2.83 pinnacle
    1.5pts Dan Martin to beat Diamn o Caruso 13/8 bet365

  5. Stage 9 bets:

    It has been a lean spell for the blog over past 2-3days and we need a real turn around to get back in the swing of things. I will make few notes on the rest day but a few guys are letting it down a little so far with some under par showings.

    This isnt an overly difficult day but we do get a mountain finish. That final climb comes quickly after another and with short downhill they hit an 8km climb. The climb for 5km is modest then we get 2km of a test at more than 8%. This stage is a little under par so I can see a left field winner. Storms towards the end of the stage could put a twist in the works.

    Aru wasn’t dropped by much last time and we saw what he can do to kick away in the Giro 33/1 is much too big.

    .25pts Fabio Aru 33/1 bet365
    .15pts Chaves 40/1 betvictor
    .1pt Keldermann 66/1 bet365

    1pt Aru to beat Valverde 3.6 888sport (3.4 pinnacle)
    1.5pts Pardilla to beat Sanchez 8/11 hills
    2pts Chavez Rubio to beat Navarro 1.57 pinnacle
    2pts Yates to beat Moreno 2.17 pinnacle
    5pts Caruso to beat Anacona 1.63 pinnacle
    1pt tschopp to bea pinot 2.73 pinnacle
    1pt zubeldia to beat monfort 2.52 pinnacle

  6. Stage 10:

    Interesting for two reasons, its a nice tt and they come off a rest day. 36.7km test. It starts with bit of a climb but then it gets fast as its downhill to the finish pretty much all the way.

    Tony Martin 4/6 bet365

    .3pts Contador 16/1 boylesports

    5pts Contador to beat Quintana 1.46 pinnacle
    5pts Uran to beat Valverde 1.49 pinnacle
    2pts Vandewalle to beat Sergent 11/10 bet365
    1pt PArdilla to beat Sam Sanchez 7/4 bet365
    1.5pts Craddock to beat Haga 1.81 pinnacle

  7. Stage 11:

    coming off the tt we get a mtf here. Final climb just under 10km at 7.5% a step 14% section comes in final third expect it to kick off from there for sure. A stage win should be contested by the best don’t see a break been given enough rope. Interesting fact is that Contador has never given up a leaders jersey in GTs

    .75pts Rodriguez 11/2 bet365
    .2pts Fabio Aru 35/1 hills

    3pts Froome to beat Quintana 8/13 ladbrokes
    1.5ts Gesink to beat Nieve 1.89 pinnacle
    1.5pts Martin to beat Uran 13/8 bet365
    1.5pts Caruso to beat Sam Sanchez 7/4 bet365

  8. Stage 12:

    Aru delivered at 35/1 for the blog and that was a nice reward after a lean spell we spilt the match bets with slight profit there as Froome had no contest from Quintana who did not finish the day. Off an interesting day we get 166km of more flat parcours of a paid circuit .
    The finish is quick and its really hard to not see a sprint of the best here. Maybe Gaurdini can finally hit his level on this one.

    .25pts Gaurdini 10/1 betvictor
    .1pt Ferrari 40/1 bet365

    2.5pts Guardini to beat Matthews 2.33 pinnacle
    3pts Ferrari to beat Debusschere 1.75 pinnacle

  9. Stage 13:

    Mixed bag with the crash causing a little chaos and Gaurdini was never involved. Ferrari was on lead out duties it seems but did take his match bet onto something a little more testing now. Stage 13 isn’t going create any time gaps more than a handful of seconds but it is a typical interesting day in the Vuelta as the stronger riders get there chance.

    They go over 3 categories climbs nothing too difficult but enough to reduce this field for the final uphill finish. The final 3km are were it should really kick off. It starts to kick up slightly. Then it ramps up with about 1.75km to go it flattens out a little. Slightly downhill before 1km to go when it kicks up a little again but with about 300m to go it flattens out so will the winner be ahead already. That kick I speak about is damn steep and is going make for a very interesting finish.

    Some people are fearing this could go to the break away but I feel lots of teams will be keen on winning this stage from the pack and keep the pace up. This is a 10/1 bar stage but with my belief that unless the break is very strong we should see the winner come from the pack. With a steep ramp, but a sprint needed, the form man Valverde already on the stage winners list is hard to avoid.

    Martin we have seen go well at this type of profile before and is keen for a stage and have him on same level as Rodriguez. One thing Contador while not always lined up for this kind of days can handle himsell quiet well here and at 25/1 is a price above his rivals. Froome is 100/1 and it could be silly but just not enough juice for me there.

    Bets:
    .5pts Valverde 11/1 paddys
    .25pts Dan Martin 14/1 boyles
    .2pts Alberto Contador 25/1 bet365

    1.5pts Niemiec to beat Kanger 1.8 pinnacle
    2pts Sanchez to beat Moreno 5/6 bet365
    1.5pts Coppel to beat Hesjedal 5/4 bet365
    2pts Monfort to beat Cardoso 1.943 pinnacle

  10. Stage 14:

    So Dan tried and failed and Valverde won the sprint but ahead of him were 3 attackers Navarro (winner at massive odds), Keldermann and Moreno. Moreno backers will be fuming that he didn’t take his chance in this one. Tinkoff didn’t want much of a chase on and FDJ did a bit of work after Orica gave up and Bouhanni was an amazing 5th.

    Niemiec lost by a place and our match bets went 1 from 4. The Stage has 3 fairly major climbs with two cat 1 climbs and one to finish. Its a long day at 201km so it could see some changes in the look of the race. The final climb is just over 8km for 4km it is just an uphll drag but then it kicks off a little but at 6km we hit the 10% plus section hitting 19,5% at one point. It is unrelenting and even at the top only eases to above 8% this is going be an interesting stage.

    Rodriguez likes it steep but Contador likes it long so could be suited to him, Valverde might just find this a bit much. Aru will face a stern test in this one with the steeper gradients he might find it a little more difficult. The rain that could fall will make this a bit of hell for the riders on the steep gradients. Arrendondo is the only man in his prime I can see beating the big two on a climb like this but I don’t think he has it in him.

    2pts Alberto Cotandor 7/2 paddys (20euro)

    2pts Gesink to beat Navarro 2.46 pinnacle
    1.5pt Niemiec to beat Kangert 1.82 pinnacle
    1pt Keldermann to beat Moreno 13/8 bet365
    2pts Cardoso to beat Monfort 1.95 pinnacle
    2pts Sam Sanchez to beat Navarro 4/6 ladbrokes

  11. Stage 15:

    The vuelta match bets have not been the strongest so for that I apologise the win of Aru at 35/1 has really bailed out the blog for now. Late today as last night I won my club championships in tennis but lets see if we have a play. A shorter 152km day with one major climb stuck at the finish. Just one proper climb before means we should see a big group at the base. Surprised yesterday that the break stayed away or what ever way it worked I have yet see video.

    The last climb is 12km with some downhill parts near top mixing it up. Its quiet a testing climb quiet steep at times, To make it interesting it hits its steepest pitch near the finish for just a short period. To make matter more interesting it could rain on the final climb. Both picks are going strong and better timing should change results from stage 14, I will try trade some picks.

    .75pts Alberto Contador 6.16 pinnacle
    .2pts Fabio Aru 14/1 ladbrokes

    1pt Contador to beat Rodriguez 2.14 pinnacle
    1pt Aru to beat Froome 2.66 pinnacle
    1pt Dan Martin to beat Valverde 3.22 pinnacle
    2pt Uran to beat Navarro 1.74 pinnacle
    2pts Caruso to beat Barguil 2.04 pinnacle
    5pts Contador to beat Valverde 8/13 hills

  12. Stage 16:

    Again a strong year took a hit on stage 15, contador perhaps a little too risky as his rivals followed Valverde proved pretty damn strong but none could catch Niemiec. Its not a long day at 160km but I like them this way with 5 climbs to get over this is about the climbing not the distance. There will also be plenty descending to keep the riders on edge. By time they hit the final climb it could be very interesting. Some of the build up climbs are quiet testing, the final is long at 16.5km but is just 6.2%. The climb is much easier in its early parts and does have some flat parts so its much more testing in the 2nd half. With the final 3rd above 10% for the most part.

    Contador is showing vulnerable he looks a little nervy and his team isn’t the best when Zaugg has been his best side kick no doubt both Valverde and Rodriguez have better support by there side. The weather is for a bit of rain so that could really mix things up for the contenders and suit the break of the day. The main challenge to the italian trio currently has been Aru while Froome doesn’t have more than the fuel to drag off the back. Valverde and Rodriguez are watching each other a little too much and that might be playing into the hands of Contador who is just looking to crack them if he can.

    Aru is a stand out bet to win should pack be there, Otherwis Uran 100+, Barguil 70+ and Martin 40+ are worth a watch in the market.

    Bets:
    .25pts Fabio Aru 18/1 bet365

    3pts Aru to beat Froome 1.862 pinnacle
    .75pts Martin to beat Valverde 4.7 pinnacle
    2.5pts Sam Sanchez to beat Nieve 1.96 pinnacle
    1.5pts Hesjedal to beat Arroyo 2.67 pinnacle
    2pts Kangert to beat Zaugg 4/5 888sport

  13. Stage 17 Bets:

    A coastal 191km test here for the riders.A relative flat day but with some bump in the roads. Inside 5km there is a little bit of a climb but for the final 2km its dead flat. Expect some rain later in the stage too. Per the profiles its got a few steep hills to mix things up here. I am taking a small investment on Boonen but otherwise a break could be the best option for this day.

    .25pts Tom Boonen 16/1 hills

    2pts Richeze to beat Ferrari 11/10 bet365 (pinnacle)
    2pts Hutarovich to beat Guardini 11/10 ladbrokes

  14. Stage 18 Bets:

    Back to the business of a more typical day in the Vuelta.We have a nice short day at 157km with two late climbs the sting in the tail. The two climbs are nothing major climbing to just 500m, testing for us every day riders but for pros more manageable. 800m over the climb is fast which always makes it interesting as first over the top can often end up leading it out if the gap isn’t big enough.

    Again as Dougal would say “looks like rain ted” for the end of the stage. The final climb has one though km at 9.9% with ramps of 15%. Valverde as always will be on the lips here and at the price he was little tempting but Martin always comes to mind on a stage like this.

    I was tempted by Sanchez but Caruso and Keldermann showed something earlier in the race that if repeated would be nice and impressive. Navarro a previous stage winner should not be the price he is and is well above what I expected.

    .5pt Dan Martin 12/1 betvictor
    .1pt Keldermann 80/1 hills
    .1pt D.Caruso 100/1 skybet
    .15pt Navarro 100/1 bet365

    2.5pts Martin to beat Aru 17/20 ladbrokes
    2pts Caruso to beat Sanchez 5/4 ladbrokes
    2pts Keldermann to beat Pardilla 1.88 pinnacle
    2pts adam yates to beat talansky 5/6 bet365
    2.5pts Arroyo to beat Poels 6/4 bet365

  15. Stage 19 Bets:

    Mixed day as Aru one of our favourites got back at his best to work with Froome and gain time. caruso was just beaten by a superb Sam Sanchez. Arroyo our large bet and a 6/4 shot brought home the bacon to save the day.

    This stage is likely to kill off the sprinters but the finish is suiting of a man with the sprint. The stage is prefect for Matthews but its highly likely the break wins this.

    .3pts Michael Matthews 9/1 hills

    1.5pts Sam Sanchez to beat Valverde 5/2 bet365
    2pts Contador to beat Froome 2.3 888sport (pinnacle)
    1.75pts Navarro to beat Barguil 2.84 pinnacle
    1.5pts Monfort to beat Keldermann 2.7 pinnacle

  16. Stage 20:
    A serious climbing day for the riders before the final time trial tomorrow There are 4 climbs in the 2nd half of the stage but even before that there is plenty climbing or them to get done.The final climb is a real tester. The final climb is just under 13km. The middle part is probably the most testing then it levels out little. The finish then kicks off a little. Rodriguez has signed here before.

    2pts Chris Froome 4.06 pinnacle
    .2pts Rodriguez 12/1 bet365.
    .15pts Sam Sanchez 50/1 paddys

    1.5pts Froome to beat Contador 2.18 pinnacle
    3pts Arroyo to beat Niemiec 8/11 bet365

  17. Stage 21:

    A short time trial to wrap things up at 9.7km. With again chances of rain could it play havoc with the field. Some of the top 10 places could change but the podium looks fixed. In a short time trial Trek have just the man for the job

    2pts Van De Walle 10.32 pinnacle

    1pt Contador to beat Froome 3/1 hills
    3pts Navarro to beat Martin 17/20 hills

We would love to hear your opinions, Please leave a comment below

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