Having link a great bet for the World Cup” href=”http://sbbcolumns.co.uk/wc2014-england-great-bet-world-cup/” target=”_blank”>pointed out the value on England to come last in the group at 8/1 (Indeed, unhealthy some friends of mine got 10/1 with Coral) I have now closed out this bet. The surprise win for Costa Rica over Uruguay means that England are now odds on to be last in the group, meaning that I was able to take a profit at around 4/1. This represents irresistible value bearing in mind that the make up of the group means that England can still qualify, and if Italy beat Costa Rica (highly likely) may well not finish last.
The point here is that Italy cannot afford to draw with Costa Rica as their goal difference is inferior, and thus will go all out for the win tonight. In this case the existing 7/1 for England to qualify will then be around 7/2.
Thus, strangely bearing in mind my earlier comments about the shortcomings of the England side I now recommend a small wager on England at 7/1 to qualify. Whilst if Italy do beat Costa Rica, the most likely result between Italy and Uruguay is a draw which would eliminate England but the 7/1 still looks tenable value to a small stake.
Obviously England must beat Costa Rica, probably only by 1 goal however, and I have paradoxically been impressed by the team during the 2 defeats. Whilst England are obviously not top class against players of the calibre of Suarez or Pirlo, they certainly look to have enough to see off Costa Rica who have no one of that sort of class.
Thus take the profit at 4/1 on England to come last in the group and play a small stake on England to qualify at 7/1 (various).