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Welsh Grand National 2013 – A Look At The Trends

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Welsh Grand National

The Welsh Grand National (Saturday 28th December)

The Welsh Grand National was first held back in 1895 and it was run in Cardiff at the Ely Racecourse and was continued at that track until 1939, it has also featured at Caerleon and in 1949 was moved to Chepstow and has been ever presence since.

The first ever winner at Chepstow was Fighting Line who was ridden by Dick Francis, David Nicholson rode three consecutive winners in the race between 1959 & 1961.

In recent years both Bindaree and Silver Birch won both the Welsh and Aintree Grand Nationals.

The Welsh Grand National Trends Ratings

The approach that I like to take is to take the trends and apply some sort of ratings system which combines the trends with the runners numbers to give you a score for each runner, I have tried this in the past with some success and they way I approach is to use my racing systems scoring process to get a score for each runner.

NO. FORM HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY SCORE
11 212P-4 Hawkes Point Paul Nicholls Ryan Mahon 14.69
4 356-24 Highland Lodge Emma Lavelle Leighton Aspell 14.68
9 3P1-25 Goonyella J T R Dreaper A E Lynch 14.59
13 131-70 Amigo David Pipe Conor O’Farrell 14.30
10 12P-12 Vintage Star Sue Smith Ryan Mania 14.19
5 1162-0 Goulanes David Pipe Tom Scudamore 13.89
19 7PP-16 Harouet Peter Bowen Jamie Moore 13.74
20 23-F3P One In A Milan Evan Williams Conor Ring (7) 13.74
15 241-33 Mountainous Richard Lee Paul Moloney 13.70
6 220-25 Merry King Jonjo O´Neill Richie McLernon 13.66
8 11P-03 Well Refreshed Gary Moore Joshua Moore (3) 13.64
3 52P-41 Hey Big Spender Colin Tizzard Joe Tizzard 13.16
12 02-201 Knock A Hand Richard Lee Tom Cannon 13.14
16 874-26 Tour Des Champs Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies 13.08
14 022-00 Chartreux Tom George Paddy Brennan 13.05
18 2114-2 Red Rocco Nigel Twiston-Davies Adam Wedge 13.04
7 103-99 Wyck Hill David Bridgwater Tom O’Brien 13.03
17 3P-03 Ace High David Pipe Kieron Edgar (7) 12.61
1 121-15 Tidal Bay Paul Nicholls Daryl Jacob 12.52
2 86203- Teaforthree Rebecca Curtis Patrick Corbett (5) 12.44

There is not too much separating the top two, in fact it is just 0.01!

Welsh Grand National - Hawkes PointHawkes Point (12/1) – Paul Nicholls / Ryan Mahon

Hawks Point comes into the race having run earlier in the month here at Chepstow over three miles, that was his first outing since running in the John Oaksey National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham back in March and it was not the worst of runs for a seasonal reappearance, that was also his handicap debut over fences. Won over three miles at Exeter on heavy ground at the beginning of the year and also won over hurdles here at Chepstow over three miles on heavy ground so the ground does not seem like it will be a problem for him, failed to see out four miles at Cheltenham but did fade late on so may see out this trip.

Welsh Grand National - Highland LodgeHighland Lodge (9/1) – Emma Lavelle / Leighton Aspell

Highland Lodge is another who is twice a winner on heavy ground and one of those came at Cheltenham over three miles one and half furlongs, he also ran in the John Oaksey at Cheltenham and finished the four mile race although well off the winner. Went close off 136 two starts ago and was put up to 143 for his run at Newbury last time out where the ground was probably too much on the quick side for him and he comes here off the same mark but on ground more to his liking.

I will dutch the two selections, to keep things simple I will give myself a £10 stake for the race and the staking is as follows:

Hawkes Point £4.35 Win at 12/1
Highland Lodge £5.65 Win at 9/1

Those stakes would give you a £46.52 profit if either of them go on to be successful in the Welsh Grand National.

About Author

I have been in the betting game for getting on 10 years now, I was a late comer in the betting scene, never really showed much interest in the first 20 years of my life but then I came across a betting website and that all changed. I have learnt a vast amount over the last 5 years, I used to believe I could pick the winner in every race before I realised I could not and began selective betting which is the only way forward. I mainly stick with the horses but do occasionally stray off to bet on the footie or speedway. I am now 35 years old, born and bred in Ipswich and still here and forever a Tractorboy, work part time for a Cash & Carry and have a dog named Dave! That’s about it from me.

4 Comments

  1. Hawkes Point beaten by a head! Frustrating! Was closing all the way to the line but just run out of track to get up!

    Still promising from the trends ratings point of view, expect more in the future!

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