The Welsh Grand National (Saturday 28th December)
The Welsh Grand National was first held back in 1895 and it was run in Cardiff at the Ely Racecourse and was continued at that track until 1939, it has also featured at Caerleon and in 1949 was moved to Chepstow and has been ever presence since.
The first ever winner at Chepstow was Fighting Line who was ridden by Dick Francis, David Nicholson rode three consecutive winners in the race between 1959 & 1961.
In recent years both Bindaree and Silver Birch won both the Welsh and Aintree Grand Nationals.
The Welsh Grand National Trends Ratings
The approach that I like to take is to take the trends and apply some sort of ratings system which combines the trends with the runners numbers to give you a score for each runner, I have tried this in the past with some success and they way I approach is to use my racing systems scoring process to get a score for each runner.
|11||212P-4||Hawkes Point||Paul Nicholls||Ryan Mahon||14.69|
|4||356-24||Highland Lodge||Emma Lavelle||Leighton Aspell||14.68|
|9||3P1-25||Goonyella||J T R Dreaper||A E Lynch||14.59|
|13||131-70||Amigo||David Pipe||Conor O’Farrell||14.30|
|10||12P-12||Vintage Star||Sue Smith||Ryan Mania||14.19|
|5||1162-0||Goulanes||David Pipe||Tom Scudamore||13.89|
|19||7PP-16||Harouet||Peter Bowen||Jamie Moore||13.74|
|20||23-F3P||One In A Milan||Evan Williams||Conor Ring (7)||13.74|
|15||241-33||Mountainous||Richard Lee||Paul Moloney||13.70|
|6||220-25||Merry King||Jonjo O´Neill||Richie McLernon||13.66|
|8||11P-03||Well Refreshed||Gary Moore||Joshua Moore (3)||13.64|
|3||52P-41||Hey Big Spender||Colin Tizzard||Joe Tizzard||13.16|
|12||02-201||Knock A Hand||Richard Lee||Tom Cannon||13.14|
|16||874-26||Tour Des Champs||Nigel Twiston-Davies||Sam Twiston-Davies||13.08|
|14||022-00||Chartreux||Tom George||Paddy Brennan||13.05|
|18||2114-2||Red Rocco||Nigel Twiston-Davies||Adam Wedge||13.04|
|7||103-99||Wyck Hill||David Bridgwater||Tom O’Brien||13.03|
|17||3P-03||Ace High||David Pipe||Kieron Edgar (7)||12.61|
|1||121-15||Tidal Bay||Paul Nicholls||Daryl Jacob||12.52|
|2||86203-||Teaforthree||Rebecca Curtis||Patrick Corbett (5)||12.44|
There is not too much separating the top two, in fact it is just 0.01!
Hawkes Point (12/1) – Paul Nicholls / Ryan Mahon
Hawks Point comes into the race having run earlier in the month here at Chepstow over three miles, that was his first outing since running in the John Oaksey National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham back in March and it was not the worst of runs for a seasonal reappearance, that was also his handicap debut over fences. Won over three miles at Exeter on heavy ground at the beginning of the year and also won over hurdles here at Chepstow over three miles on heavy ground so the ground does not seem like it will be a problem for him, failed to see out four miles at Cheltenham but did fade late on so may see out this trip.
Highland Lodge (9/1) – Emma Lavelle / Leighton Aspell
Highland Lodge is another who is twice a winner on heavy ground and one of those came at Cheltenham over three miles one and half furlongs, he also ran in the John Oaksey at Cheltenham and finished the four mile race although well off the winner. Went close off 136 two starts ago and was put up to 143 for his run at Newbury last time out where the ground was probably too much on the quick side for him and he comes here off the same mark but on ground more to his liking.
I will dutch the two selections, to keep things simple I will give myself a £10 stake for the race and the staking is as follows:
Hawkes Point £4.35 Win at 12/1
Highland Lodge £5.65 Win at 9/1
Those stakes would give you a £46.52 profit if either of them go on to be successful in the Welsh Grand National.