William Hill Lincoln – What’s Trending?
We all know by now that I love looking through the previous winners of races to find guidance to this year’s race and with the flat season kicking off at Doncaster we have the usually curtain opening of the William Hill Lincoln so I am going to pick my way through previous races.
Don’t forget that as the feature we shall be cover it as the Race Of The Day so be sure to check it out for selections.
William Hill Lincoln – The Draw
Looking back over previous years does not really point you in any direction in terms of stalls, we have had winners from stall 1 and all the way up to stall 23 although there is a small collection of winners from stalls 6-9 which has produced 5 winners from the last 17.
I decided to look further than just the Lincoln, I looked at Doncaster straight races with 16+ runners on soft ground to see if that threw anything up but there was not a lot, the first two stalls produced 7 of the 35 winners but then the higher stalls have also produced winners, stall 10 has produced 5 and stall 16 has produced 7.
So this section was somewhat a waste of time as it shows nothing!
William Hill Lincoln – The Horse
Looks at the odds range for winners, you probably want to set a limit of about 22/1, those who have gone off bigger are 2-172 but if looking at placing terms then you could go as big as 50/1. In the win market those 12/1 or 14/1 have not fared well with a record of 0-46 but those priced 14/1 do have a 36% place strike rate (9-25).
In terms of ages, 16 of the past 17 winners have come from runners aged between 4yo and 6yo those older have filled an additional 12 places.
The lightest winner came off 8-4 but those carrying under 8-9 have a record of just 2-129 whilst those carrying 9-6 or more have produced just 1 winner from 37 runners. The best range of winners has come from those carrying between 8-9 and 9-2. In terms of places those carrying either 9-0 or 9-1 have a record of 11-32 in the place market.
In terms of official ratings you want to look at runners who hold a mark of between 89 and 98 although those off 92, 93 or 94 have not produced a winner from 68 runners.
In terms of breaks, 13 of the last 17 winners came here not having run for at least 121 days but no longer than 240 days, the other 4 winners came off breaks of between 11-15 days and these two ranges also fill most of the placing’s.
William Hill Lincoln – The Form
Whilst a last time out winner is not important they have produced 5 winners of this race, as a rule I would say that those who finished in the first 9 last time out are good but then add to that a top three finish within their last three starts and you should be good.
You want to look at runners who have not featured in group races in the past, these have produced just 1 winner from 99 runners, those who have run in Listed, Class 2 or 3 races are ones to side with and then in terms of best win go with class 2 or 3 winners as these have produced 14 winners.
Course experience does not count for much here, those who had made 3+ previous starts are Doncaster are just 1-60.
Avoid those who ran in a class 1 race last time out (1-50) and go with those who featured in either a class 2 or 3 (16 wins) and look for those who ran over at least 7f last time out but no further than 1m2f.
Don’t be put off by those who ran on the all-weather last time out but ignore those over jumps and those who ran in fields of 11+ runners last time out are a positive.
You also want a runner who has won within the last 300 days because those who haven’t are 1-137 whilst those with claimers in the saddle have produced just 1 winner from 67 runners.
William Hill Lincoln – Other Notes
Some other maybe not as important facts now! Those who made their debut over either 1m2f or 1m3f have produced 6 places from just 12 runners and whose who made their debut at either Newbury or Newmarket have produced 22 placed runners.
Tony Hamilton (Gabrial’s Kaka) has placed with 4 of his 5 rides in this race and Jimmy Fortune (Burano) has placed with 5 of his 9 rides in this race.
Those wearing Blinkers are 0-23, those wearing Visors are 2-15 whilst those with Cheekpieces or Tongue Ties one are 0-24 and not produced a single place. Those wearing the headgear for the first time are 0-33 and produced 3 places.
I think we have enough information now for this race and going over some of the major factors two runners stand out for tomorrows race, Hamilton’s mount Gabrial’s Kaka (7/1) and also the Stuart Williams trained Mazzotint (25/1).
My advised bets would be..
Gabrial’s Kaka 3pt win at 7/1
Mazzotint 1pt eachway at 25/1
Don’t forget also that Bet365, William Hill and a couple of others are paying 5 places in the race.