International Stakes Handicap (3.15 Ascot)
Just the 29 runners to sort through here and we will once again start with the ages, online those aged 6yo or elder have failed to produce a win from 67 runners over the past 10 years and this eliminates ten runners (Palace Moon, more about Hawkeyethenoo, look Santefisio, Prince Of Johanne, Justonefortheroad, Field Of Dream, Excellent Guest, Don’t Call Me, Head Of Steam & The Confessor).
The second part of the ages is that only one 3yo runner from 27 has gone on to win and only a further three have placed so we will take out Queensberry Rules & Ashaadd.
Nothing really stands out for the weight but those runners carrying a penalty because of their last race have produced just 1 winner from 22 runners so we take out both Galician and Glen Moss.
All previous 10 winners came into the race having run within the last 40 days which only eliminates one which is Sacrosanctus whilst all 10 has also run in a class 2 handicap that season worth 30k or more which takes out Ducal, Common Touch, Compton, Trial Blaze, Boots and Spurs and Hefner.
We have now reduced the field from 29 down to just 8 runners, all 10 previous winners had at least placed in the a class 2 race which takes out Rebellious Guest whilst all of the 10 had run 3-5 times on the turf that season which takes out Loving Spirit & Es Que Love.
The next thing to look at is big field experience, 8 of the last 10 had won a race which consisted of at least 12 runners which takes out Shamaal Nibras and looking at their last runs, 9 of the 10 ran at either Royal Ascot or Newmarket’s July meeting which takes out Dubawi Sound.
The middle to high stalls (11-20) have not produced a winner in the last seven years and with Bertiewhittle in 13 he comes out.
This leaves us with just two runners who I will put both up for selection.
Selections: REDVERS (14/1) & LIGHTNING CLOUD (12/1)
Sky Bet Dash (3.30 York)
We have the 20 runners to sift through for this race, we have had a couple of elder winners in the past but 6yo+ runners have a record of 2-59 which is not great so these are the first to go which are Rasaman, Regal Parade, Tarooq, Secret Witness, Fitz Flyer, Summerinthecity, Rodrigo De Torres and Gramercy.
Runners carrying 8-7 or less have not produced a winner from 27 runners so this takes out Line Of Reason and Farlow (7lb claimer), all of the previous 9 winners had finished within the first two in one or both of their latest starts, we eliminate Prodigality, Bogart, Dick Bos, Ahern and Mississippi.
We are already done to just 5 runners; ideally you want a previous class 2 winner (8-9) which takes out Baccarat and a runner drawn in stall 10 or lower which takes out Tropics, Khubala and Al’s Memory.
This leaves us with Tim Easterbys runner Fast Shot.
Selection: FAST SHOT (12/1)
King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3.50 Ascot)
Daryl already has his thoughts up on this race which can be found here
The eldest runners in the race are both Cirrus Des Aigles (13/8) and Red Cadeaux (33/1) who are both 7yo runners, there have been 86 runners in this race over the past ten years and 35 of those have been either 5yo or elder which make up 41% of all runners and they have not produced a winner, they have filled 31% of the placing’s but no winner so I will take both of these out.
On this seasons data all of the last ten winners had run 2-4 times, Universal has made 10 starts this season which does not bode well for him, also all of the past ten winners came in to the race having run within the last 50 days which only Very Nice Name fails with so I will now take out both of these runners.
This leaves us with four runners, there is the distance trend that 8 of the last 10 had already won over 1m4f but with all four of these filling that it doesn’t rule any out, the trend that I like is the fact that the last seven winners has all won either a G1 or G2 by three or more lengths, Ektihaam is yet to win a group race so he goes, Hillstar was a G2 winner last time out but only won by a length whilst Trading Leather was a G1 winner last time out having won by just under two lengths so none of these three pass that trend.
Novellist has in the past won both a G1 and G2 by more than three lengths so he is the sole remaining runner and the selection.
Selection: NOVELLIST (9/2)