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2012 Cox Plate – A good horse and a great jockey could pay dividends

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Cox Plate, 2040m, Group 1, 445pm local time, Sat 27th Oct, Moonee Valley

Should be a decent race and fairly open too with a few highly-rated 3 year-olds  trying to usurp the 4 year olds in what should be a fascinating tactical race

The market has shifted this way and will probably move a bit again in the next 24 hours as the big bets start landing; there have been some hefty wedges laid today including one punter who stands to win $1m if More Joyous is victorious

I have backed Ocean Park at 16s a few weeks ago and with a recent win, the price for the speedy Kiwi raider has tumbled nicely (7.2 currently on Betfair) so I’m looking at a decent profit there already

However, I have been a fan of Green Moon for along while and with arguably the best jockey in the world , Craig Williams, on board tomorrow then the current 5.4 for this excellent horse should be taken very seriously; drawn well in 4 and is such a class act the only way he won’t be involved is if he is blocked in by the Waterhouse horses

Pierro was obviously disappointing last time out in the Caulfield Guineas but considering the poor positioning in that race and the fact he is off such a low weight here being a youngster then he has to be considered; the market have him as the fav (4.9 on Betfair) and he is likely to shorten up a bit yet – if he manages to get a decent position and keep his gunpowder dry then he may well prove to be as good as he usually looked prior to the Guineas.. All Too Hard had a terrific ride in that and won well but I can’t help thinking that was the highlight for Black Caviar’s half-brother and he may be lost in the pack here and find a few too good (alternatively, if he can reproduce that form then he could be good value at about 10/1 and worth an each way stab)

The tactics will be interesting as if Gai W can get hers across quickly from the outside then they could control the race well and that leaves a lot for Green Moon to do – now WIlliams is the ideal jock in this circumstance but it does make for  instant decision-making as it could be a fast-run race and that will draw some of the sting out of the speedsters; it will be some horse who can hang back and then come with a run late on.. Ocean Park may well prove to be that horse but if lacking just a bit in quality or struggling with the track (never raced here) then Green Moon may be able to see off Pierro in the dash for the line

If and it’s a big if indeed, Green Moon is being warmed up for the MC then Ocean Park could be the one to take this as his form is great and he has the speed but the nagging doubt is still the weight advantage of the 3yr olds! Pierro & All Too Hard with just 49.5 kilos really should be contesting albeit historically the 4yr olds have usually seen off the ‘kids’

Plenty of value for those who like the longer shots such as Ethiopia and Shooutout but I’m going to stick with Green Moon beating Ocean Park with maybe another of the 4yr olds seeing off the trio of young guns – Shootout could be the one to make the frame at a bigger price perhaps

All in all, a fascinating race and one that is really hard to call; I’m plumping for the quality horse and the top jockey combination

About Author

* UK born, now live in sunny Australia * Specialise in golf & football but also dabble on the nags, cricket, US sports, AFL, etc * Always looking to go against the flow and tend to trade most of the time

1 Comment

  1. Green Moon didn’t produce but with Ocean Park winning I’m still more than happy as got on him a few weeks ago at 16s as mentioned in the blog!

    the nagging doubts were right too as the 3yr olds raced well with All Too Hard (2nd) indeed proving to be an excellent each way shout and Pierro finishing 3rd

    the 3rd last paragraph was spot-on with OP beating the other two… hope some of you had decent results and apologies for Green Moon

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