John Smiths Grand National 2013
In recent years trends have been used to highlight Grand National winners such as Mon Mome at 100/1 and Silver Birch whose starting price although 33/1, was available as a 100/1 shot just days before the race
Below are a list of lost of trends. They can be used to short-list the field, or just used as interesting angles to look at runners chances. Some punter like to apply as many as possible to come down to just a couple of selections, others will want to have their selections ready from form reading and double check them with both positive and negative trends.
We’ve tried to look for some “different” numbers to those everywhere else and hope you find them both interesting and useful. We also have a dedicated page – “How do I find the Winner of the Grand National”, where we have applied various trends and combinations of trends to come up with short-lists for you to consider. Click here to see what has been outlined
John Smiths Grand National 2014 Trends and Stats:
The following is full trends. For a more recent set of trends for the past ten years when the race has become more competitive please see the bottom of the page
Grand National Age of Runners:
If we go back to as far as 1960
- Nine year olds have the best record since 1960 with 18 winners.
- Ten year olds have won 10 nationals since 1960, Those ten came in the last 36 years between 1976 and 2011.
- Eleven year olds have won 8 Nationals in the time frame, including 2012, They all come in a 31 year span between Aldaniti in 1981 and Neptune Collonges in 2012
- Just seven 8yo have won in the 53 year time span, the last being Bindaree in 2002 and including Corbiere in 1983 and Red Rum who won as an 8, 9 and 12yo!!
- Nine 12yos have won since 1960 including Red Rum, but no winner since 2003 when Amberleigh House won.
Grand National Weights
The 11 stone weight barrier has been a long banged out statistic, but with the change on the course, and better quality horses being campaigned for the race, things could be on the turn
- The last four winners have carried 11 stone or more to victory, but before 2009 only four had done the same thing since Red Rum in 30 races.
Grand National Starting Prices:
- 8 winning favourites since 1960, the shortest price of those 13/2 in 1960 itself
- 5 of those favourites have come in the last 16 years
- Only 8 single figure odds winners since 1960- Five of the last 6 six of those were all 7/1f
- 15 winners since 1960 have been 20/1 or bigger
- Three 20/1 or bigger between 2003-2012
- Three 20/1 or bigger between 1993 – 2002
- Three 20/1 or bigger between 1983-1992
- Two 20/1 or bigger between 1973 – 1982
- and another 4 were 20/1 or bigger back to 1960
- 22 winners since 1960 have been between 10/1 and 18/1
- There have been five 100/1 winners, the last being Mon Mome in 2009
Grand National Stamina:
There are few opportunities in the National hunt calendar to run the ditance of the Grand National. There are regional Grand Nationals that differ in length but few go as far as 4 miles let alone the Aintree Grand National length of 4miles 4furlongs. Onr things that is very apparent is that finding a runner that has won over at least 3 miles previously is key
- The last winner of the Grand National that HAD NOT won over 3 miles before was GAY TRIP in 1970
Grand National Irish Challengers:
- The Irish have not had a winner since 2007 when Silver Birch scored, trained by Gordon Elliot who had yet to hold his trainers licence for a full year.
Grand National Experience:
It goes without saying that runners that have faced the Grand National Fences at some point will have the advantage of knowing what’s coming, but general experience of steeplechasing is just as important.
- Each of the last 10 winners of the race have raced at least 10 times over fences
Now you’ve digested all these trends, have a look at the “How do I find the Winner?” page by clicking here