Champion Bumper 2014
The Champion Bumper has been run since 1992 and this is a National Hunt Flat Race which is a Grade 1, the race is run over an extended two miles and it is open to runner aged between 4yo and 6yo. From the twenty-one times this race has been staged on eight occasions the winner has come out of the Willie Mullins yard including the last two.
Champion Bumper 2014 – Trends
- (16-16) Set a cut off of 50/1 in the market
- (15-16) Avoid 4yo runners
- (13-16) Go with Irish breed runners
- (15-16) A Winner within last 3 starts (Ideally LTO)
- (16-16) At least a 16 day break
- (15-16) Avoid previous graded participants
- (11-16) Ran off 11-7+ last time out
- (10-16) Finished 5+ lengths ahead last time out
Champion Bumper 2014 – Trend Selection: Black Hercules (7/1)
With the two additional trends added we are left with three runners and all three of them are from Willie Mullins! I am going to take out Shaneshill as the majority of winners have come from breaks of under 100 days and from the remaining two I am going to go with Black Hercules on the basis that runners who made the debut at Punchestown have a 21% strike rate in the race (5-24) for a LSP of +22.00.
Champion Bumper 2014 – Blogger Selections
Darylrogerson – Joshua Lane
Second on debut to champion bumper favourite Shaneshill with subsequent bumper and then hurdle winner Wounded Warrior back in 3rd. He was held up towards the rear by Katie Walsh and stayed on in the final furlong but around Naas’ fairly tight circuit was never going to land a blow on the winner. Interestingly Ed Harty then sent him immediately over for a Listed bumper at Ascot and with Barry Geraghty booked for the ride they just failed to get up to beat Seven Nation Army looking a little green in the early stages.
Both times he had travelled into the race very strongly before staying on and Cheltenham’s additional stamina test should be suitable. Geraghty went on record shortly after the race saying he thought this one has a good engine and will be nicer in time. He has been given time until this race and by Gamut I can’t help thinking they’ve been waiting for better ground which hasn’t really come until now. Isn’t really bred to suit the softer ground he raced on but I think Cheltenham’s gallop and ground will be in his favour.
It’s a hard race but he only has a couple of lengths to make up on the favourite and if conditions are more in his favour that’s very achievable I think.
Mato – Black Hercules (7/1) & Silver Concorde (EachWay 16/1)
The race that I look forward to the most but this year is a poor renewal in my opinion, I have no doubt the Irish will win the race again with either Mullins or Weld, Willies Black Hercules is the favourite but the yard have talked up there other Wylie runner Shaneshill, but I fancy the mount of Patrick out of the 3 of the Mullins runners as his win last time out was very impressive at Gowran with the 3rd and 4th being highly regarded, the Weld horse that takes my interest at the prices is Silver Concorde who will be ridden by the excellent Robbie McNamara, who has chosen this one ahead of Vigil who won on the bridle last time out and could be a big danger on the day but I’m told Robbie is very confident that he is on the right one.
The British horses are just not good enough this year in my opinion with First Act being the main one and maybe David Pipes also with a mention.
Zipster – Third Act
Not exactly my type of race here but if you can get it right then it will pay off looking at the prices of the recent winners! Colin Tizzard and Joe Tizzard teamed up to produce a 40/1 winner in 2010 when Cue Card went on to success and I like the look of their runner in this, Third Act was well beaten on debut but a much more solid second run when runner up at Fontwell before going on to success last time out at Kempton when a comfortable winner being eased down close home.
Seems to be getting the hang of the game and has shown improvement, plenty more needs to be shown to get in the frame in this race but he has similar qualities as the last five winners had and I believe he is well worth some each way money in this race.
Aidenldrebin – Value At Risk
You can find Dan’s full reasoning for his pick in his selections post here.
gghofman – Vigil, Value At Risk (Saver)
Vigil trained by Weld who knows how handle a horse for the flat and has specially sent over his flat jockey Smullen to take the ride, Was a nice second on debut and improved with convincing win last time and breeding suggests drying ground suitable. Still of running gives me a hope we can get a good run here.
Gecko – Shaneshill
Decent type who has impressed with two bumper wins in Ireland – Mullins likes winning this race and is well represented again today; this is the one for me, Ruby on board and with the ground expected to suit Shaneshill, this really could be a very useful sort – last race was an impressive win and I expect Shaneshill to be firing on all cylinders.