There are enough trend blogs out there so I thought for the Festival I’d do something a little more in depth and see if we couldn’t find the winners profile for the races. To do this I’ve applied filters to the majority of trend statistics and each time I will apply the one that distinguishes the biggest sample of winners before then applying the remaining filters and repeating this process to narrow it down. Whether it works or not, I find something like this helps you understand the types of horses that win at the Cheltenham Festival.
1:30pm – William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle
|LTO||Won A Hurdle||13||119||10.92%||+22.25|
|LTO||Favourite / Joint-Favourite||10||73||13.70%||+52.25|
|2LTO||Placed in Top 3||10||60||16.67%||+65.25|
|Runs||Between 6 and 10 Career Runs (inc Flat)||9||25||36.00%||+85.25|
|Runs||Between 2 and 5 Career Hurdles||9||22||40.91%||+88.25|
|Hurdles||Won 50% or more Career Hurdles||9||20||45.00%||+90.25|
|Hurdles||Placed in 75% or more Career Hurdles||9||17||52.94%||+93.25|
|Last Ran||Only ran 0 or 1 times since New Year||6||8||75.00%||+50.25|
These fairly general and expected filters actually remove a vast majority of historical runners and this year all but two of the horses who currently hold entries; second favourite Jezki and one of Willie Mullins’ six runners Mozoltov.
2:05pm – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
|LTO||Favourite in a Chase||11||88||12.50%||-17.02|
|LTO||Won A Chase||9||62||14.52%||-4.52|
|Chases||Between 1 and 4 Career Chases||9||51||17.65%||+6.48|
|Age||Between 5yo and 8yo||9||47||19.15%||+10.48|
|Track||Previously won a jumps race at Cheltenham||5||11||45.45%||+18.75|
|Odds||Not Favourite for the Arkle||4||8||50.00%||+19.50|
|Track||Won a hurdle at Cheltenham||4||6||66.66%||+21.50|
These trend filters leave us with just one horse entered that fits the bill, Tom George’s Module. However, Paddy Brennan has said he is looking forward to riding him in the Jewson Novices Chase but you can now back with the security of NRNB. Elsewise, Captain Conan & Simonsig were the two horses eliminated from the last two filters applied but with Captain Conan, like Module, having first option in other races it looks like the favourite has an outstanding chance.
2:40pm – JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
|Age||Between 7yo and 10yo||14||209||6.70%||-3.50|
|OR||Between 0 and 14 higher than Last Race||10||120||8.33||+2.50|
|LTO||Placed in Top 3||9||80||11.25%||+16.50|
|LTO||Ran in a Handicap Chase||7||53||13.21%||+29.50|
|LTO||Ran in a Graded/Listed Chase||6||25||24.00%||+23.50|
|OR||No higher than 143||6||19||31.57%||+29.50|
With entries not confirmed yet I have analysed only the available horses to back on Oddschecker, and only one of these matches this criteria being last year’s runner up Fruity O’Rooney.
3:20pm – Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
|LTO||Won a Hurdle race||12||80||15.00%||+0.47|
|LTO||Between 2m & 2m110y||10||37||27.03%||+24.47|
|Last Ran||Between 30 & 60 days ago||9||19||47.37%||+31.47|
Not many to filter here but considering we can eliminate almost 95% of the fields whilst only losing 40% of the winners suggests a strong typical profile for the winner. Only favourite Hurricane Fly matches all these trends from the current entries.
5:15pm – Pulteney Land Investments Novices Handicap Chase
|OR||OR raised since Last Run (inc Allocated new mark)||8||107||7.48%||-20.00|
|Chases||Placed in 50% or more of career Chases||7||79||8.86%||-1.00|
|LTO||Finished 1st or 2nd||7||58||12.07%||+20.00|
|Age||7 or 8 years old||7||33||21.21%||+45.00|
|LTO||Ran in a non-handicap||6||23||26.00%||+47.50|
|Last Ran||30 days or more since last run||6||16||37.50%||+54.50|
The first trend filter suggests this race is taken by improvers just like last year’s winner Hunt Ball and therefore no surprise. We have just one anticipated runner who fits the bill here and that’s Phillip Hobbs’ Colour Squadron who’s currently the favourite. If we omit the last filter we get 5 other horses who match these trends:
Ballypatrick & Sustainability who considering the lowers OR in the race in the last 5 years has been 128 might not get in this and Buckers Bridge & Sweeney Tunes who both Won a Grade 2 lto so probably have their sights aimed higher than this.
Saffran De Cotte is the fifth and won on saturday off a mark of 125. He beat 125, 121 & 122 rated horses home off level weights so I imagine his mark will rise enough to see him in this race off a fairly low weight. He also is the only one out of the five who only holds 1 entry so the plan looks set in stone for this race.
|1:30pm||Supreme Novices Hurdle||JEZKI||4/1||2pt|
|1:30pm||Supreme Novices Hurdle||MOZOLTOV||20/1||1pt E/W|
|2:05pm||Arkle Chase||MODULE||40/1 (NRNB)||1pt E/W|
|2:40pm||JLT Specialty Chase||FRUITY O’ROONEY||20/1||2pt E/W|
|3:20pm||Champion Hurdle||HURRICANE FLY||7/4||4pt|
|5:15pm||PLI Listed Handicap Chase||COLOUR SQUADRON||8/1||2pt|
|5:15pm||PLI Listed Handicap Chase||SAFFRAN DE COTTE||25/1||1pt E/W|