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Cheltenham Festival Day 1 – AntePost Trends Profiler

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There are enough trend blogs out there so I thought for the Festival I’d do something a little more in depth and see if we couldn’t find the winners profile for the races. To do this I’ve applied filters to the majority of trend statistics and each time I will apply the one that distinguishes the biggest sample of winners before then applying the remaining filters and repeating this process to narrow it down. Whether it works or not, I find something like this helps you understand the types of horses that win at the Cheltenham Festival.

 

1:30pm – William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle

Trend Description Winner Runners S.R % L.S.P
 LTO  Won A Hurdle  13  119  10.92%  +22.25
 LTO  Favourite / Joint-Favourite  10  73  13.70%  +52.25
 2LTO  Placed in Top 3  10  60  16.67%  +65.25
 Runs  Between 6 and 10 Career Runs (inc Flat)  9  25  36.00%  +85.25
 Runs  Between 2 and 5 Career Hurdles  9  22  40.91%  +88.25
 Hurdles  Won 50% or more Career Hurdles  9  20  45.00%  +90.25
 Hurdles  Placed in 75% or more Career Hurdles  9  17  52.94%  +93.25
 Last Ran  Only ran 0 or 1 times since New Year  6  8  75.00%  +50.25

 

These fairly general and expected filters actually remove a vast majority of historical runners and this year all but two of the horses who currently hold entries; second favourite Jezki and one of Willie Mullins’ six runners Mozoltov.

 

2:05pm – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Trend Description Winner Runners S.R % L.S.P
 LTO  Favourite in a Chase  11  88  12.50%  -17.02
 LTO  Won A Chase  9  62  14.52%  -4.52
 Chases  Between 1 and 4 Career Chases  9  51  17.65%  +6.48
 Age  Between 5yo and 8yo  9  47  19.15%  +10.48
 Track  Previously won a jumps race at Cheltenham  5  11  45.45%  +18.75
 Odds  Not Favourite for the Arkle  4  8  50.00%  +19.50
 Track  Won a hurdle at Cheltenham  4  6  66.66%  +21.50

 

These trend filters leave us with just one horse entered that fits the bill, Tom George’s Module. However, Paddy Brennan has said he is looking forward to riding him in the Jewson Novices Chase but you can now back with the security of NRNB. Elsewise, Captain Conan & Simonsig were the two horses eliminated from the last two filters applied but with Captain Conan, like Module, having first option in other races it looks like the favourite has an outstanding chance.

 

2:40pm – JLT Specialty Handicap Chase

Trend Description Winner Runners S.R % L.S.P
 Age  Between 7yo and 10yo  14  209  6.70%  -3.50
 OR  Between 0 and 14 higher than Last Race  10  120  8.33  +2.50
 LTO  Placed in Top 3  9  80  11.25%  +16.50
 LTO  Ran in a Handicap Chase  7  53  13.21%  +29.50
 LTO  Ran in a Graded/Listed Chase  6  25  24.00%  +23.50
 OR  No higher than 143  6  19  31.57%  +29.50

 

With entries not confirmed yet I have analysed only the available horses to back on Oddschecker, and only one of these matches this criteria being last year’s runner up Fruity O’Rooney.

 

3:20pm – Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

Trend Description Winner Runners S.R % L.S.P
 LTO  Won a Hurdle race  12  80  15.00%  +0.47
 LTO  Favourite  10  46  21.74%  +15.47
 LTO  Between 2m & 2m110y  10  37  27.03%  +24.47
 Last Ran  Between 30 & 60 days ago  9  19  47.37%  +31.47

 

Not many to filter here but considering we can eliminate almost 95% of the fields whilst only losing 40% of the winners suggests a strong typical profile for the winner. Only favourite Hurricane Fly matches all these trends from the current entries.

 

5:15pm – Pulteney Land Investments Novices Handicap Chase

Trend Description Winner Runners S.R % L.S.P
OR  OR raised since Last Run (inc Allocated new mark)  8  107  7.48%  -20.00
Chases  Placed in 50% or more of career Chases  7  79  8.86%  -1.00
 LTO  Finished 1st or 2nd  7  58  12.07%  +20.00
 Age  7 or 8 years old  7  33  21.21%  +45.00
 LTO  Ran in a non-handicap  6  23  26.00%  +47.50
 Last Ran  30 days or more since last run  6  16  37.50%  +54.50

 

The first trend filter suggests this race is taken by improvers just like last year’s winner Hunt Ball and therefore no surprise. We have just one anticipated runner who fits the bill here and that’s Phillip Hobbs’ Colour Squadron who’s currently the favourite.  If we omit the last filter we get 5 other horses who match these trends:

Ballypatrick & Sustainability who considering the lowers OR in the race in the last 5 years has been 128 might not get in this and Buckers Bridge & Sweeney Tunes who both Won a Grade 2 lto so probably have their sights aimed higher than this.

Saffran De Cotte is the fifth and won on saturday off a mark of 125. He beat 125, 121 & 122 rated horses home off level weights so I imagine his mark will rise enough to see him in this race off a fairly low weight. He also is the only one out of the five who only holds 1 entry so the plan looks set in stone for this race.

 

BETS

Time Race Selection Odds Stakes
 1:30pm  Supreme Novices Hurdle  JEZKI  4/1  2pt
 1:30pm  Supreme Novices Hurdle  MOZOLTOV  20/1  1pt E/W
 2:05pm  Arkle Chase  MODULE  40/1 (NRNB)  1pt E/W
 2:40pm  JLT Specialty Chase  FRUITY O’ROONEY  20/1  2pt E/W
 3:20pm  Champion Hurdle  HURRICANE FLY  7/4  4pt
 5:15pm  PLI Listed Handicap Chase  COLOUR SQUADRON  8/1  2pt
 5:15pm  PLI Listed Handicap Chase  SAFFRAN DE COTTE  25/1  1pt E/W

 

 

About Author

I’m a newcomer to this collection of like minded and knowledgeable bloggers/bettors, and am still in awe of their expertise across a broad range of sports. I’ll be trying my best to chip in with posts that people hopefully find as informative as I do theirs.

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