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Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends 2014

It’s the final day of the festival and we have seven races but will only be covering six which have data available, today includes the Triumph Hurdle and the feature of the festival, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

JCB Triumph Hurdle 2014 Trends

  • (16-16) Nothing bigger than 33/1
  • (16-16) Avoid anything with Blinkers applied
  • (16-16) Must have won in last 3 starts (Ideally LTO)
  • (16-16) Won at least a Class 3 race (Or OGB)
  • (16-16) Break of between 16-60 days
  • (16-16) Did not finish 2nd or 3rd on debut (0-66)
  • (15-16) Made 1-3 starts in last 90 days
  • (15-16) Stallion has produced 4yo winners
  • (15-16) Ran over 2m or extended LTO
  • (13-16) Previously ran in a Class 1 race (Or OGB)
  • (Additional) Finished more than a length ahead LTO
  • (Additional) LTO was not at Newbury (0-16)
  • (Additional) Not 2nd two starts ago (1-59)

JCB Triumph Hurdle 2014 – Trend Selection: Guitar Pete (8/1)

 

Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle 2014 Trends

  • (16-16) Must be carrying a minimum of 10-0
  • (16-16) Avoid Handicap Debutantes or those down 2lb+ from LTO (0-87)
  • (16-16) Ran in at least a class 3 LTO
  • (15-16) Avoid anything 25/1 or bigger (1-225)
  • (15-16) Avoid 7yo runners (1-95)
  • (15-16) Avoid previous Class 1 winners (1-71)
  • (15-16) Avoid those with breaks of between 16-30 days (1-108)
  • (15-16) 1-4 runs in the past 90 days and recorded a career win
  • (15-16) Has previously run on the ground
  • (14-16) Has run 0-1 times at Cheltenham but not won

Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle 2014 – Trend Selection: Lac Fontana (12/1)

Nothing passes all of the trends above, Lac Fontana passes all of them apart from the final one so is therefore the selection.

 

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 2014 Trends

  • (9-9) Previously run in at least a Grade 2
  • (9-9) A break of at least 26 days
  • (9-9) Made debut in National Hunt, Not Flat!
  • (9-9) Ran over at least 2m4f LTO and not over more than 3m
  • (9-9) Ran in a field of no more than 11 runners LTO
  • (8-9) Look at the first 5 in the market
  • (8-9) Try to stick to single figure odds (9/1 or less)
  • (8-9) Focus on 6yo or 7yo runners
  • (8-9) 4-8 career starts with 2+ wins
  • (8-9) Finished in the first 2 LTO
  • (Additional) Finished 5l+ ahead last time out

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 2014 – Trend Selection: Kings Palace (7/2)

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2014 Trends

  • (16-16) Either IRE or FR breed
  • (16-16) Break of between 31-120 days (Ideally 76-90)
  • (16-16) Ran over 3m+ LTO
  • (16-16) Avoid those who ran on anything Heavy LTO (0-43)
  • (15-16) Max age of 9yo, no older then 3yrs Vs Youngest
  • (15-16) Run and Won a G1 or not run in GB
  • (15-16) Ran in a Graded Race LTO or Not in GB
  • (14-16) Won within last three starts
  • (13-16) First three in the betting market (Max 8/1)
  • (13-16) Look for those who finished at least 2nd on debut
  • (Additional) 11 of the 14 who won lto were 3+ lengths ahead

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2014 – Trend Selection: Silviniaco Conti (3/1)

 

CGA Foxhunter Chase 2014 Trends

  • (16-16) Avoid anything 40/1 or bigger (0-129)
  • (16-16) Debut not on the Flat
  • (15-16) Finished in first 3 LTO or failed to finish
  • (15-16) Ran in either Class 6 LTO or OGB
  • (14-16) Avoid those 11yo or older (2-134)
  • (14-16) Break of between 11-45 days
  • (14-16) Ran over at least 3m last time out
  • (11-16) Finished 4th or better on debut
  • (Additional) Ran off more than 12-4 lto (0-33)
  • (Additional) Did not run at Huntingdon lto (0-16)
  • (Additional) If beaten lto then by more than 3l (0-29)

CGA Foxhunter Chase 2014 – Trend Selection: Carsonstown Boy (33/1)

 

Grand Annual Chase 2014 Trends

  • (15-16) Set a maximum price of 20/1
  • (15-16) Finished within the first 3 in last three starts
  • (15-16) 1-3 Starts in the past 90 days with 2+ career wins
  • (15-16) Break of between 11-45 days
  • (15-16) Finished in the first 6 LTO
  • (14-16) Set a maximum age of 9yo
  • (14-16) Favour those with Graded experience
  • (14-16) Made debut between 4yo and 6yo
  • (13-16) Carrying between 10-0 and 10-11
  • (13-16) Target IRE and FR breed runners

Grand Annual Chase 2014 – Trend Selection: Mr Mole (9/1) & Raya Star (16/1)

These are the two which come the closest to all of the trends although they both fail on the weight trend.

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