Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2014
The Fred Winter Juvenile was added to the festival back in 2005 and is a novice handicap hurdle run over an extended two miles in which the novice hurdlers have to jump just the eight hurdles. In nine years no trainer nor jockey has managed to notched up multiple successes in the race.
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2014 – Trends
- (9-9) Did not make debut on the AW
- (8-9) 1-3 starts over hurdles
- (8-9) Stallion has produced 4yo winners
- (8-9) Runner either IRE or FR breed
- (8-9) Runner carrying at least 10-4 but no more than 11-4
- (8-9) Runners OR must be up on LTO or making Debut
- (7-9) Break of between 16-45 (Not 26-30)
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2014 – Trend Selection: Orgilgo Bay (33/1)
The above trends left us with four runners so we had to dig a little deeper to narrow these down, recipe those who did not run over hurdles last time out at 0-10 and those who were beaten by under five lengths last time out are 0-39 which eliminates two runners and leaves us with Goodwood Mirage and Orgilgo Bay and looking at recent runs, ed those who ran in a class 1 race two starts ago are 0-29 which would take out Goodwood Mirage.
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2014 – Blogger Selections
Zipster – Certification (Eachway at 25/1)
Very tricky race to call, this you could give the majority of the runners a good word and as in previous years we could well see a big priced winner. The one I like although hard to be too confident in this race is the John Ferguson trained Certification, out of Authorized and runners out of the stallion have a 33% strike rate over jumps this year (11-33), this runner was runner up to Kilcooley last time out and that runner has since been out to win again. On debut he was well off today’s favourite Dawalan but was finishing the race strongly and then on his second start over hurdles was a winner of a not too competitive race at Wetherby.
As I say it will not be my most confident pick of the festival but at 25/1 looks to be in with an each way chance here.
gghofman – Dawalan (1st), Goodwood Mirage (2nd)
This race is full of French raced imports some who have not raced here either. Katgary is one of those imports away from racing for nearly 4 months now and without a run to go on in the UK I look elsewhere. Orgilgo Bay fits a few trends and goes off light but has a very iffy latest run to want to trust him here. Dawalan represents connections who know what this race needs and his form suggest he should be much better than Baradari. Cheek pieces could well get bit more out of him. Ivan Grozny is interest as are all Walsh hurdle horses but does need to be better after poor last run. Goodwood Mirage is my other bet with the McCoy and Jonjo combo. He was not a cheap purchase. Won on hurdle debut and much better than 6th on heavy at this track.