Liege Bastogne Liege 2015 Cycling Blog
This will be the 101st Liege Bastogne Liege on Sunday. The route has changed a little, search with a more selective race on the cards. 253km, tester as the 4th Monument of the season. A hard raced Liege Bastogne Leige will need the legs of a good climber to win. After Gerrans sniper victory last year as Martin watched from the ground riders might be keen to attack than take there chances in the sprint.
The last three climbs before the finish are;
Côte de La Redoute (km 218.5 – 2km, 8.9%)
Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons (km 234.0 – 1.5km, 9.4%)
Côte de Saint-Nicolas (km 248.0 – 1.2km, 8.6%)
Eyes are on the two men to have already come away winners in the past week Valvere and Kwiatkowski. Both filled up the podium as Valverde denied them. There is a chance that it will be a tailwind along with possible showers in the mix. Gilbert is the other past winner in the field but he and Martin both crashed in Fleche. Despite all the moaning of this and that by fussy cycling fans this is an interesting race with plenty to watch out for, attacks of course in a cleaner peloton will always be more restrained.
Alaphillippe was excellent along with Albasini mid week but this test will be something else to both riders. I will go with the bigger prices as the value does lie in tactics maybe playing out as people call out Valverde. Scarponi is too good to be 125/1 for this, Astana also have Nibali and Fuglsang but his form has been just as good and the team will certainly keep the options open. Barguil is my other big chance for this one. He has been little slow to get going this season but he is a growing talent that could strike a shock attack and the team support is strong in just his second race here.
Rodriguez does tempt of the big names and I did back Martin but his crash has put me off like it would for Gilbert. (Both have drifted as a result) Ag2r have a nice squad lined up here and Nocentini has been going well and has done here before so at 150/1 take a chance on him. I like Rui Costa I think he has been going well but the market seems to have coped onto that fact. Gallopin is interesting but he will have to get things seriously right to beat this field or get himself just off the pace for a chance at the short sprint.
For two saver picks I have opted for Mollema and Gasparotto. I may add Martin or Rodriguez after some thought but for now I go for the outsider approach.
Liege Bastogne Liege Outright:
.4pts Roman Kreuziger 40/1 various
.2pts Michele Scarponi 125/1 paddys
.1pt Bauke Mollema 66/1 paddys
.15ps Warren Barguil 150/1 various
.1pt RInaldo Nocentini 150/1 ladbrokes
.1pt Enrico Gasparotto 80/1 ladbrokes
3.5pts Kreuziger to beat Nibali 5/6 paddys
more match bets below in the comments