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Rugby union Aviva Premiership week 13 betting and preview

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The second half of the season starts with what on paper looks an easier set of fixtures to predict with strong favourites in 4 or 5 of the games.

Friday 04 January

Worcester v Leicester

Worcester let Sale off the hook last week when allowing the Sharks to get back into the game after a strong start. They battled back to seal a bonus point with a late Kvesic try but will feel that game was for the taking. Leicester dominated Gloucester up front at a rain soaked Welford Rd for 79 minutes in the scrum but then survived an anxious 2 mins camped on their own line with Gloucester going for the try that would have seen them draw level with a conversion to come. Ford missed a lot of kicks that kept that close and has done so in a couple of tight matches this year and is replaced by Flood who should penalise any infringements.

Last 5 years H2h at Worcester

Worcester 13-32 Leicester

Worcester 18-39 Leicester

Worcester 17-19 Leicester

Worcester 23-19 Leicester

Prediction: Worcester have been very strong at home in recent weeks and may well push Leicester here a bit. Expect it to be close: Leicester by 1-12.

Saturday 05 January 

Exeter v Northampton

Exeter will be disappointed to have only got a draw last week after gifting Bath a Penalty try late on to tie the match and  will be looking for a victory to get them going again after losing late on to Gloucester the previous week. They have looked strong through their games this season and am sure this blip will be rectified. Northampton had a tough match with Sarries which they came out of with a lot of credit only eventually going down by a point after Stephen Myler rattled the crossbar with the final kick of the game. They have shown a lot of battle at both Ulster and Sarries in recent away games and this will be another thorough examination.

Last 5 years H2H at Sandy Park

Exeter 15-18 Northampton

Exeter 30-9 Northampton

Prediction: Northampton have had 4 very hard games on the bounce and with another physical test they may just not have enough left in the tank.: Exeter by 1-12.

Gloucester v London Irish 

Shaun Edwards left the Irish this week a move which will surely help Irish out. Their defence has been appalling this year and steps must ow be taken to shore this up. Irish got a lot closer last week but the game was at Twickenham and  in terrible conditions for running rugby. They will have to step up again if they are to stop Gloucester on this dry weekend. Gloucester battled away last week to contain Leicester whether legally or illegally and will be pleased with their point even though they could have had a lot more. With a drier weekend they can get their quick game back to the fore and unleash those exciting backs.

Last 5 years H2h at Kingsholm

Gloucester 33-30 London Irish

Gloucester 23-9 London Irish

Gloucester 34-20 London Irish

Gloucester 23-21 London Irish

Gloucester 34-14 London Irish

Prediction: Gloucester have already won 33-40 at Irish this year as well as the 22-29 away and 47-3 at home in the Amlin Cup. Expect points on Saturday and a Gloucester win. No handicaps available at this time but match points over 40 and Gloucester -10 would be good the price for 13+ would also be worth looking at.

Sunday 06 January

London Welsh v Harlequins

London Welsh were ripped apart last week by the pace of Wasps although if the tackles had been made out wide that result could and should have been a lot closer. They are going to face the pace again this week with the visit of Harlequins who beat them 40-3 in match week 2. Quins have changed a lot of their back line with Mike Brown, Ugo Monye and Tom Casson all rested and Hopper moved to the bench, with all that said though they should still be more than good enough to win this match.

 

No recent H2h at Oxford

Prediction: A lot of changes for Quins but there should be a gulf in class here between these two teams and Quins should win by the -9.5 on offer

Saracens v Sale 

Sale fought back last week from a poor opening against Worcester last week to hold on to only their second win in the Premiership but the elation was soon tainted with John Mitchell leaving the club to return home the following day. They seem to have improved in the last few weeks but that may not be enough today. Saracens have rotated again at fly half  pitching Owen Farrell against Danny Cipriani, which could well be a great battle if Cipriani is on form. However his tackling frailties are well known and I expect Barritt, Tomkins and the big Sarries pack will be running at him all day long.

Last 5 H2h in Watford

Saracens 23-10 Sale

Saracens 28-13 Sale

Saracens 15-13 Sale

Saracens 24-23 Sale

Saracens 24-20 Sale

Prediction: Saracens may have scored 5 less tries than Sale this year in the Premiership, but I do think they are going to fire very soon and look to be heading that way, against a weak defence who have already conceded 27 tries Saracens could cut loose today. Saracens by 13+

Wasps v Bath

Wasps were flattered last week with some soft tries being conceded by London Welsh but you can’t take away the adventure they showed and the pace of the backline. They are a team in form and look to be coming back to the competitive team they were a few years back. Bath still confuse me, one week they don’t turn up and the next they go to the tough Exeter and fight to the end and secure a draw. The inconsistency is shown in the league table with them sat in midtable.

 

Last 5 H2h at Wasps 

Wasps 27-24 Bath

Wasps 10-43 Bath Twickenham

Wasps 19-35 Bath Twickenham

Wasps 23-27 Bath

Wasps 25-10 Bath

Prediction: Bath seem to have the upper hand over the last few years but a resurgent Wasps side should be good enough to see them off. Wasps 1-12 pts

About Author

Hi I am 42 and have been sports betting seriously for the last 4-5 years. My main areas are Rugby Union where I have played a decent level in both England and Wales and also Cricket where I did the same. I like my horses too but really limit myself to the sprints up to a mile in the summer and then the longer distances over fences in the winter with some AW action as well in the colder months.

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