Tour De France Stage 14 Preview
So Stage 13 has wrapped up and Nibali has again taken advantage by imposing his will on the stage. All this despite losing Fuglsang before the final climb to a crash from which he took a little time to get back on his bike. Konig and Majka both thriving in the heat went up the road on the final climb and Nibali latched onto them after attacking Valverde and Pinot who had gone away from him at first. Meanwhile Ten Dam couldn’t hold them but came off ahead of his team mate Mollema. Tejay Van Garderen looked strong and worked really well with Bardet to limit any time losses to those ahead. The other big names then lost time that could rule them out of any chance of a top 3 never mind an overall win.
Porte the big loser of the day he popped badly on final climb and it says how badly he did that Kwiatkowski who went early had easily passed him by the finish. Rui Costa lost more time as well on most of his rivals and a top 10 is looking out of reach. On withdrawal sides Navarro looked very ill on the road and had to pull out on his birthday. Acevedo hurting from injury and Vichot also pulled out of the race.
On the betting front I traded Valverde quiet a bit and also had some trades on my suggested bets which all traded lower as I was happy to take on the days break. I also traded Nibali I little but late on probably evened out on him looking to see could Konig or Majka win. I took Majka at decent odds looking to get out for single figures which I just about got. From our suggested bets despite crashing Fuglsang beat Scarponi home who seemed to fail to make the final climb with Nibali so was on a suffering day. We recorded a very nice profit with bets going pretty well recording a +8.49pts. Onto Tour De France Stage 14.
Tour De France Stage 14 Preview
So onto Tour De France Stage 14 which is coming off the hellish climbs of stage 13 were the heat is sure to leave its mark on the riders. With Sunday looking very much flat this will be the final chance before the last rest day for riders to impose themselves. The stage leaves from the much visited Grenoble and covers 177km with barely a flat piece of tarmac in sight. The days opening climb is down as 34km so going on the map it starts from soon after the sprint point, with some flat spots in the climb its likely most the climb is more in the 5% region. Its a gradual 30km down hill before they reach the tours highest climb the Col D’Izoard but dont be fooled while it will be a 19km test at 6% average it is most testing at the end and could crack a few on an off day.
The final climb to the finish to Risoul is 12.6km at nearly 7% and like today should see some selections purely based on the tiredness of the riders from the day before. The climb really consistent rarely varying much from its average gradient. It interests me to see who can reverse the form from Friday and improve here on the 3 climb stage of Tour De France Stage 14. With lots of points up for grabs expect Rodriguez to be in the days break.
Again Nibali will be on the lips after todays showing but with less steep climbs it might be worth looking to men he might not be worried about chasing. Majka had his day today and it will be worth looking to Rogers who looked decent before easing of today. It will be a little cooler too which will help. Otherwise looking at Valverde who has a great late kick to win a sprint. Paddy power have prices but not much takes the eye. For now I have taken very small amounts on Tejay 50/1 and Bardet 50/1 with Peraud 100/1.
Tejay Van Garderen led Bardet home today and he looked one of the few to have something left in the tank at the finish. This type of climb should suit him and we know how good he is in the heat from when he won in California. Its amazing that he is 80/1 compared to many others and I will be going big looking to trade on him. Bardet can continue to push Pinot. Nieve would have been on my lips but at his price he is aside of riders proven to be at the better end of the riders scale. Rodgers if your Tinkoff inclined looks the best option. With Valverde climbing well and a good sprint he can take this home if the larger bunch comes in together.
Tour De France Stage 14 Bets:
.33pts Tejay Van Garderen 80/1 various (90 Betfair)
.2pts Alejandro Valverde 14/1 various (17 Betfair)
.15pts Romain Bardet 66/1 Boylesports
.1pt JC Peraud 100/1 various (120 betfair)
Tour De France Match Bets:
Peraud is a stand out 11/10 with paddys it won’t last but even down to 4/6 he is worth siding with Ten Dam dug in so hard today to repeat and beat the consistent Peraud will take a lot from. The other wise bet is Konig over Majka. Majka may have beaten him home today but expect Tinkoff to change rider while Konig is still fighting it out in the GC despite time lost in week 1 he is now very strong.
1.5pts Van Den Broeck to beat Mollema 3/4 hills
4pts Peraud to beat Ten Dam 11/10 paddys
3.25pts Konig to beat Majka 4/5 hills
1pt Rogers to beat Nieve 2.63 pinnacle
1pt Rogers to beat Rolland evens ladbrokes
1.5pts Horner to beat Rui Costa 2.43 pinnacle
1pt De Marchi to beat Bakelants 2.65 pinnacle
1pt Van Garderen to beat Bardet 6/5 paddys
.75pts Zubeldia to beat Frank Schleck 2.55 pinnacle
2pts Nibali to beat Rodriguez 1.71 pinnacle