Tour De France Stage 16 Preview
So on Stage 15 we said we would get a messy sprint day before the rest day. It was far from simple as we got lots of late rain and winds but the pack held back a little so it didn’t quiet have the full effect. In the end we nearly saw the two man break stay away as the aptly named Jack Bauer was denied in the final 100 metres as he went for it. The funny thing being he didn’t even end up getting the award for most aggressive rider on the day as they had decided before the final run in.
The sprint itself was interesting once again Katusha nailed it they don’t have a big train normally 2 or 3 men lead Kristoff into it but key to the success is that they never go too early and that Kristoff is confident enough at the business end. Kittel didn’t show up he seemed to back of in the conditions and even Greipel at the business end wasn’t brave enough to get stuck in. Demare was at the back trying to not soil his shorts like the day before. Biggest surprise of the day was Haussler a quiet man of sprinting in recent times he kept going to push for 2nd ahead of Sagan who is just destined to keep himself safe and take Green now. It looks like Sagan will try win a stage attacking rather than sprinting now after seeing many other crashes.
Our betting went well we had Kristoff advised and Sagan was 3rd for followers who like each way pints too. The blog recorded a profit on Stage 15 of +3.03pts
Tour De France Stage 16 Preview
So onto Tour De France Stage 16 as we hit the Pyreenes for the final week. The stage is a long one at over 237km from the lovely town of Carcassone to the famous finish town of Bagneres De Luchon. The stage isn’t too though but its overall distance and coming off a rest day will ensure we see some action. There are too early climbs but neither should cause much trouble. At about 123km they hit the sprint and they the climbing begins as they head up the Portet D’Aspet from the easy side at 5.4km at 6.9%. The descent here is very quick and scary and is sure to see some brave souls put the hammer down.
After that hairy descent they head up the Col Des Ares which is 6km at 5.2%. The final climb of the day is the real test. The Port de Bales (click here for a profile) is 11.7km at 7.7% but it features a little climbing before it has even started. 21.5km from the top of the climb to the finish town so its quiet a bit of downhill before a very short flat finish. The climb itself has one easier section in the second half but apart from that its quiet testing. It has two shorter steep sections in the later part of the climb. But will gaps at the top be kept by the bottom that is the question.
A break has a solid chance in this type of terrain the finish plays into there hands as the climb might be ridden a little easier than it might as a finish. On the descent a break should very much be able to hold off a reasonable gap to the finish. By all accounts the downhill to Bagnere De Luchon is not that testing so being able to go down and rotate turns may help, going alone might be too much of a risk. With no one trading below 10/1 in this one the market is very wise to what is going on here. Although the 11/2 bet365 offer on Nibali is shameful at the very least.
It is proving difficult to pick a name out siding with Orica Greenedge is wise but which rider takes the eye? Simon Yates has been used in the right way and sent home for the final week, great management in my view. Thomas of Sky may go again but he is just 25/1 for the stage. Visconti is another quality rider who can do well in a break and is 33/1. Pinot has been talked about due to his downhill crisis in the past but he looks over that for most part and has been able to keep it in check for now. Expect Ag2r to test him again as they have often had 3 men on the final sections of stages and are running away with the team prize.
This stage should also highlight the 3 way battle we currently have for the polka dots. Majka is now equal with Rodriguez both likely to infiltrate the break while Nibali is behind both by just 2 points. I would take on both Rodriguez but especially Majka in the markets. This is a stage for trading in play for me. Follow me on twitter here, I will be making remarks in play on the break and the best possible trades.
Tour De France Stage 16 Bets:
1.25pts Valverde to beat Nibali 2.36 pinnacle
1.25pts Van Garderen to beat Bardet 6/4 paddys
1.5pts Konig to beat Mollema 1.83 pinnacle
2pt Kadri to beat Voeckler 6/4 paddys
1pt Feillu to beat Trofimov 2.33 pinnacle