Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle 2014
The Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle is named in honor of trainer Vincent O’Brien who throughout his career trained a total of twenty-three Cheltenham festival winners. The race is open to those aged five year old or elder and is run over two miles and one furlongs in which the runners to contend with eight hurdles. Ruby Walsh is the leading jockey in the race with four wins whilst Paul Nicholls is the leading trainer with three winners, the Irish have had success in the race of late producing the last four winners.
Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle 2014 – Trends
- (16-16) Must be carrying a minimum of 10-0
- (16-16) Avoid Handicap Debutantes or those down 2lb+ from LTO (0-87)
- (16-16) Ran in at least a class 3 LTO
- (15-16) Avoid anything 25/1 or bigger (1-225)
- (15-16) Avoid 7yo runners (1-95)
- (15-16) Avoid previous Class 1 winners (1-71)
- (15-16) Avoid those with breaks of between 16-30 days (1-108)
- (15-16) 1-4 runs in the past 90 days and recorded a career win
- (15-16) Has previously run on the ground
- (14-16) Has run 0-1 times at Cheltenham but not won
Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle 2014 – Trend Selection: Lac Fontana (12/1)
Nothing passes all of the trends above, Lac Fontana passes all of them apart from the final one so is therefore the selection.
Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle 2014 – Blogger Selections
Zipster – Alaivan
I have some rules that I always follow on the following day and using those I got this field down to four runners, Runswick Royal looks to have too much to do so I shall take him out and of the three remaining the one that I like is Jonjo’s runner Alaivan who with the 5lb claim from Linehan is off a very light weight today, some will argue that he could do with softer ground and you are probably right but at the 2011 festival in this very race he was just two lengths off the winner on good ground so not a concern for me and he is off a 12lb lower mark than that run. He has not won in three years which is slightly concerning but a return to Cheltenham and I am hoping for a big run from him today.
gghofman – Deep Trouble (Main Bet 40/1), Lyvius & Tzora
This is very open due to the large field, look for something that has jumped well being in large fields and likes good ground. Upazao will need to find bit more and it can be seen why Walsh has opted away. Arctic Fire still has bit to learn as a 5 year old, he may prove better next season he has a bit to do based on his runs so far. Strongpoint has had a fair run rattling off two wins to rattle off a 3rd in this company would be something else.
Cheltenian is 2nd favourite this is just his second handicap hurdle and he has his issues so its risky to rely on him here. Deep Trouble at 40s is way too big ignore that last run and you have a real chance on our hands who should prefer the grand as it is. He ran Lyvius very close giving a lb away, now he gets a lb. Not always reliable but at his best will make a show of this price.
Lyvius of course has his form closely tied to deep trouble, he will enjoy this track and might well find something from the blinkers they have applied. Also tzora is worth a saver on at the odds lower down the weights. Earlier season form was strong and looked back to near best after July fall.
SeamusShanley – Thomas Edison, Montbazon
I think there is some value looking outside the favourites in the Vincent O’Brien handicap hurlde race and I shall side with Thomas Edison who was unluckily brought down over the course last time out and could well be well treated on his mark at present. The horse has had several unlucky rides finishing a strong 3rd in a Downroyal €26k event when was badly hampered so has shwon that he has the ability to win. If he can get a more favourable turn of fortunes I think he can go very well here
I shall also back the Alan King trained Montbazon whos form also stands out whos rn 4th in the surpreme novices hurdle event two years ago has to be appealing. He was only a head behind trifolium who has gone on well since and although he has only had one run in the Betfair hurdle since I will take the chance that he will be ready for this test today.
Darylrogerson – Makari
This one has been in my notebook since it’s last run and it’s no surprise we see him here. He ran nearly two seconds quicker over the same course and distance as Fox Norton and Broughton did in the following Grade 2 hurdle and that marked him down as one of serious quality. He travelled best coming down the home straight and picked up the leaders well, being kept up to work by Andrew Tinkler. Only put up 5lbs for that and his jumping does need some work but I think the stronger pace will benefit him in that respect.
Jaydubs – Arctic Fire
The Irish hold a very good record in this race with 5 of the last 6 winners with only Paul Nicholls getting in between them. I have been looking to oppose it but just can’t find a viable option. What has really taken me is the way it closed up on the Tullow Tank 2 runs back and with the form lines with the Tullow Tank being firmly franked this week with the novices I can’t look any further.