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Zip Does Glorious Goodwood + System Picks – Day Two

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1.55 Goodwood – Goodwood Stakes

Top rated for the system is Italian Riviera who is going to have to do better than when nineteen lengths behind Wild Desert in a class five handicap at Warwick last time out, he has only been right-handed once (Kempton) and he won that race but a further 2lb rise in the handicaps puts me off him.

The three on my shortlist were Broxbourne, Gassin Golf and Lieutenant Miller and of those three I am going to side with Gassin Golf who is a big price, has not been seen on the flat for 330 days but was out over jumps 98 days ago and he has returned from a lengthy break in the past to win (231 days), when last seen on the flat it was here at Goodwood over two miles when finishing runner up to Rumh off 92 and although 2lbs higher for this run I believe he has a great chance, has only started twice on GS ground in his career, a winner at Haydock on the flat and runner up at Newbury over hurdles so he seems to go fine on GS ground and although he does have a lot of weight to carry here (9-10) it is not an impossible task, two of the last three winners of this race carried 9-7 and 9-10 so for me it’s top weight Gassin Golf.

System Selection: Italian Riviera (14/1)
Personal Selection: GASSIN GOLF (20/1 EW) (Non Runner)

Ranked Runner Trainer Jockey % Of Scores
1st Italian Riviera Sir Mark Prescott Luke Morris 13.60%
2nd Broxbourne Mark Johnston Joe Fanning 10.19%
3rd Lieutenant Miller Nicky Henderson Tom Queally 8.82%
4th Brockwell Tom Dascombe Richard Kingscote 7.62%
5th Beyond David Pipe Thomas Brown3 7.07%
6th Gassin Golf Richard Lee Mickael Barzalona 6.17%
7th Courtesy Call Nicky Henderson Neil Callan 5.37%
8th Beyond Conceit Andrew Balding Jamie Spencer 5.02%
9th Ermyn Lodge Pat Phelan Fergus Sweeney 4.87%
10th Mexicali Dean Ivory Seb Sanders 4.58%
11th Sula Two Ron Hodges Philip Prince5 4.25%
12th First Avenue Laura Mongan Jack Mitchell 3.63%
13th Seaside Sizzler Ralph Beckett Jim Crowley 3.63%
14th Kazbow Richard Ford Graham Lee 2.91%
15th The Betchworth Kid Michael Bell William Buick 2.90%
16th High Office Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan 2.72%
17th Herostatus Jason Ward Kieren Fallon 2.16%
18th Cloudy Spirit Andrew Hollinshead Jimmy Quinn 1.88%
19th Sohar James Toller Frankie Dettori 1.81%
20th Good Morning Star Mark Johnston Franny Norton 0.80%
3yo+ Handicaps at Goodwood: 3-14 (21%) 9-14 (64%) +15.00
Races over 2m+ on the Flat: 49-224 (22%) 97-224 (43%) +36.07
Class 2 Handicap: 15-134 (11%) 42-134 (31%) -13.82
Handicaps with 16+ Runners: 23-170 (14%) 57-170 (34%) +10.81

 

2.30 Goodwood – Gordon Stakes

The system goes big here with the top rated the outsider of the field Spillway who is currently available at 33/1! This runner is 3-5 at right-handed tracks and is also 3-5 in fields of 11 or fewer runners and both of these factors are relevant in the scoring system but first time out in class one company and on the evidence of his latest effort he deserves to be the price he is.
For me it is all about the favourite Excess Knowledge from the John Gosden yard, a winner on debut over a mile at Sandown and although not won since, he has not been disgraced, second run was runner up to the future Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Just The Judge, his run in the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) at Newmarket was without his poorest to date but last time out was just a length off Mandour in a listed race at Sandown. For me the further step up in trip is going to be ideal for him and no concerns whatsoever about the softening soft.

System Selection: Spillway (33/1)
Personal Selection: EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (9/4)

Ranked Runner Trainer Jockey % Of Scores
1st Spillway Eve Johnson Houghton Tom Queally 20.82%
2nd Excess Knowledge John Gosden William Buick 17.79%
3rd Elkaayed Roger Varian Paul Hanagan 14.73%
4th Cap O’Rushes Charlie Appleby Mickael Barzalona 12.52%
5th Testudo Brian Meehan Kieren Fallon 12.46%
6th Havana Beat Andrew Balding David Probert 11.42%
7th Secret Number Saeed bin Suroor Silvestre De Sousa 10.28%
3yo Non Handicaps at Goodwood: 0-2 (0%) 0-2 (0%) -2.00
Non Handicaps over 1m4f on the Flat: 12-53 (23%) 28-53 (53%) -21.74
Group 3 Races: 21-67 (31%) 38-67 (57%) +18.74
Non Handicaps with 6-8 Runners: 43-139 (31%) 79-139 (57%) -8.03

 

3.05 Goodwood – Sussex Stakes

Some people are saying this will be a two horse race between Dawn Approach and Toronado but not for me, this is a three horse race because there is no way that I can overlook Queen Anne Stakes (G1) winner Declaration Of War who was beaten by a very good Al Kazeem last time out but having said that you have to favour the other two as they are 8lbs better off in the weights.

These two met in the St James’s Palace Stakes (G1) at Ascot and it was a cracker with the two of them battling it out to the line with Dawn Approach just coming out on top as he put his critics behind him after his Derby flop. Toronado has now finished behind DA on his last two starts although was a hell of lot closer last time out than he was in the 2,000 Guineas but with the rain getting in the ground I personally find it almost impossible to oppose Dawn Approach who has been superb on ground on the softer side of good so for me I have to agree with the systems top rated.

System Selection: Dawn Approach (11/10)
Personal Selection: DAWN APPROACH (11/10)

Ranked Runner Trainer Jockey % Of Scores
1st Dawn Approach J S Bolger Kevin Manning 31.16%
2nd Toronado Richard Hannon Richard Hughes 21.59%
3rd Declaration Of War A P O´Brien Joseph O’Brien 19.09%
4th Gregorian John Gosden William Buick 12.51%
5th Reply A P O´Brien Seamie Heffernan 5.94%
6th Trade Storm David Simcock Jamie Spencer 4.94%
7th Leitir Mor J S Bolger Ronan Whelan 4.77%
3yo+ Non Handicaps at Goodwood: 3-21 (14%) 10-21 (48%) -16.93
Non Handicaps over 1m on the Flat: 13-43 (30%) 22-43 (51%) -7.70
Group 1 Races: 17-51 (33%) 29-51 (57%) -14.27
Non Handicaps with 6-8 Runners: 43-139 (31%) 79-139 (57%) -8.03

 

4.50 Goodwood – Fillies’ and Mares Stakes

Considering the system is bases on previous runs, then it is no surprise that the unbeaten Ribbons comes out as top rated with a perfect score and Fanshawe is no stranger to this race having won it back in 2009 with Alsace Lorraine and he brings here a decent looking type who will be tested by the step up in class and the 7lb rise in the handicaps.

The 3yo runners have won all bar two of the last ten running’s of this race and they dominate this field with 10 of the 16 runners being 3yo’s and the one which I like here is dual Goodwood winner Saucy Minx, this filly has recorded two wins from six starts and both came here over 7f, once on good ground with the other coming on GS ground, last win came off 78 and then she was narrowly denied a hat-trick last time out off 82 and comes here with an additional 1lb (83) which for me leaves her in the bracket of a winnable mark. Goodwood is not a track that will suit all runners but she has proven she can handle the track and with a minimum rise I believe she can take this race.

System Selection: Ribbons (11/2)
Personal Selection: SAUCY MINX (10/1)

Ranked Runner Trainer Jockey % Of Scores
1st Ribbons James Fanshawe James Doyle 18.63%
2nd A Star In My Eye Kevin Ryan Franny Norton 12.42%
3rd Great Timing Charlie Appleby Mickael Barzalona 11.60%
4th Saucy Minx Amanda Perrett Pat Dobbs 9.48%
5th Rhagori Ralph Beckett Jim Crowley 8.71%
6th Jabhaat Ed Dunlop Paul Hanagan 6.78%
7th Close At Hand John Gosden Nicky Mackay 5.05%
8th Eastern Destiny Richard Fahey George Chaloner5 4.80%
9th Forgive Richard Hannon Richard Hughes 3.98%
10th Iffraaj Pink Roger Varian Andrea Atzeni 3.57%
11th Opera Box Marcus Tregoning Frankie Dettori 3.50%
12th Love Magic Sir Michael Stoute DOUBTFUL 3.34%
13th Tuscania Lucy Wadham Frederik Tylicki 2.66%
14th Creme Anglaise Michael Bell Luke Morris 2.46%
15th Invincible Cara Ed Dunlop Silvestre De Sousa 1.77%
16th Steer By The Stars Mark Johnston Joe Fanning 1.25%
3yo+ Handicaps at Goodwood: 3-14 (21%) 9-14 (64%) +15.00
Handicaps over 1m1f on the Flat: 6-26 (23%) 11-26 (42%) +6.87
Class 3 Handicaps: 27-156 (17%) 60-156 (38%) -31.72
Handicaps with 16+ Runners: 23-170 (14%) 57-170 (34%) +10.81

 

5.25 Goodwood – Harwoods Classified Stakes

The system goes with the current favourite from the Richard Hannon yard Magic City, he is a three time winner on the flat, twice over 7f which includes a course and distance success which came off a mark of 80 but a further win off 85 means that he comes into the race holding a mark of 90. There are a couple of negatives for me, has struggled in both big field (17/24 & 13/20) that he has been in and he also struggled in both runs when going into the race within 2 weeks of his last run.

I personally like one at a decent price here at it is Discression from the Kevin Ryan yard who has been bang out of form, pretty much well beaten in all of his last seven starts which has resulted in his handicap dropping from 89 down to today’s 80 which means he is now off the same mark as when last winning. Both previous wins have come over 7f and only been outside the placings once from four starts on GS ground, goes well this time of the year and is 2-4 when returning to the track within 2 weeks of his last run. For me there is a lot to like about this runner and today’s race looks perfect for him to land at a big price!

System Selection: Magic City (15/2)
Personal Selection: DISCRESSION (22/1 EW)

Ranked Runner Trainer Jockey % Of Scores
1st Magic City Richard Hannon Richard Hughes 10.57%
2nd Askaud Scott Dixon Frederik Tylicki 7.51%
3rd Nenge Mboko George Baker Pat Cosgrave 7.37%
4th Discression Kevin Ryan Neil Callan 6.62%
5th Bravo Echo Michael Attwater Jim Crowley 5.99%
6th Ancient Greece George Baker Thomas Brown3 5.91%
7th Unknown Villain Tom Dascombe Richard Kingscote 5.73%
8th Good Authority Karen George Luke Morris 5.71%
9th Tidentime Mick Channon Martin Harley 5.67%
10th My Kingdom Stuart Williams Mickael Barzalona 4.73%
11th Esprit De Midas Dean Ivory Seb Sanders 4.40%
12th Novellen Lad Willie Musson Richard Mullen 4.38%
13th Johnny Castle Amanda Perrett Pat Dobbs 4.08%
14th Alejandro Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan 3.75%
15th Spirit Of Sharjah Julia Feilden Frankie Dettori 3.74%
16th Johannes Richard Fahey George Chaloner5 3.52%
17th Noble Citizen David Simcock Martin Lane 3.15%
18th Bronze Prince Michael Attwater Paige Bolton7 2.84%
19th Accession Clive Cox Steve Drowne 2.25%
20th Mr David Jamie Osborne Racheal Kneller5 2.09%
3yo+ Handicaps at Goodwood: 3-14 (21%) 9-14 (64%) +15.00
Handicaps over 7f on the Flat: 32-177 (18%) 73-177 (41%) -41.19
Class 3 Handicaps: 27-156 (17%) 60-156 (38%) -31.72
Handicaps with 16+ Runners: 23-170 (14%) 57-170 (34%) +10.81

 

About Author

I have been in the betting game for getting on 10 years now, I was a late comer in the betting scene, never really showed much interest in the first 20 years of my life but then I came across a betting website and that all changed. I have learnt a vast amount over the last 5 years, I used to believe I could pick the winner in every race before I realised I could not and began selective betting which is the only way forward. I mainly stick with the horses but do occasionally stray off to bet on the footie or speedway. I am now 35 years old, born and bred in Ipswich and still here and forever a Tractorboy, work part time for a Cash & Carry and have a dog named Dave! That’s about it from me.

1 Comment

  1. Well done on Ribbons after a couple of close 2nds think Askaud has a great chance in the last will go on the ground and 6lb rise fair looks e/w value

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