ROYAL SCOTS EBF FILLIES´ HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90) Winner £8,093, Good 1m Runners: 9
Three year old runners have certainly had the upper hand in the only four running’s of this race, there has been nine runner elder than three in the past four races but three year old runners have filled the first two spots in all four races. The winners have ranged from 3/1 up to 13/2 so no massively priced winners and the weights have been spread from 8-12 up to 9-10 although three of them were carrying more than 9-0 which would give you Act Your Shoe Size and Miss Ellany.
For me I will be going with David O’Meara’s Miss Ellany, this three year old started off over in Ireland where she did much show too much as a two year old but she moved over to the O’Meara yard and on her three year debut at Beverley she put in a superb performance when beating the next by six lengths over seven furlongs in a maiden. She has been very consistent since too, placing in all of her next three starts which were all class four handicaps before being switched to the ten furlong trip last time out at Ripon which produced a fairly comfortable win off a handicap mark of 77. She is back down to a mile today and will be 7lbs higher in the handicaps for her win but she enjoyed her first outing on good ground last time out and hopefully the weather will be kind and it will remain good although her win at Beverley was on softer ground. She is up to a class three race for the first time and the rise in the handicaps will mean she will have to show improvement to land this race but I believe it is in her.
Daniel Tudhope remains in the saddle today and he is thus far 2-4 on this runner and he comes here in fine form having notched up 6 winners in the last fortnight for a 23% strike rate and he has had no problems finding winners here at Ripon in the past and holds a 21% strike rate for 3yo rides. The yards record here is not great with 5-37 but they are 0-11 for 2yo runners here so take that out and it looks much better.
Of the other runners the already mentioned Act Your Shoe Size has to be a threat based on the previous running’s of this race and although not a 3yo Lady Chaparral should also not be ignored, she has won two from three starts over a mile and is only 2lbs higher in the handicaps than when beating today’s opponent Hot Rod Mamma at Carlisle last month but I do believe her better runs do come on softer ground but she is capable of winning on this ground as already proven.
So for me Miss Ellany can show enough improvement today to handle the 7lb rise in the handicap and the rise in class to see off one of the other 3yo runners in the race in Act Your Shoe Size and Lady Chaparral can complete the first three.
BET: MISS ELLANY (2pt Win)